Everyone Keeps Asking, Will 'Black Panther' be Shackled at the China Box-Office This Weekend?

Last spring Wonder Woman scored a rare extension, beyond the standard 30 day release schedule in China, becoming its best single market box-office outside of North America with $90.5MMUSD at the box-office.

Now this may not seem like a lot of money, compared to some other foreign releases in China during its heyday box-office boost of 2015 when Furious 7 rocked the cinema screens. A time that has passed, due to the maturing cinema market and a forgoing of cheap subsided tickets through movie ticketing apps.

WW played much like other superhero films in China, arguably the most reliable genre to play there, where Thor: Ragnarok made $112MM, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $100MM, and Justice League scored $106MM all in 2017.

To compare Doctor Strange pulled in $109MM in 2016, and going back to 2014 when the box-office was booming across the board Captain America: Winter Soldier raked in $115MM. See a pattern here?

Black Panther is tracking similar to Guardians 2 and Thor 3, in its opening weekend numbers. Putting it on par with all other MCU movies to open in first and top out between $100MM to $120MM.

Black Panther will do good to big business in China, but it will not change the spectrum of audience's minds as it has in the U.S. as a cultural phenomenon.

Black Panther has been playing "well" throughout the Asian countries it has been released in - South Korea $36MM, Indonesia $10MM, Singapore $4.8MM, Hong Kong $6.8MM, India $7MM - these are all good numbers, but they do not hint at any major boost for China. Compared to the cultural phenomenon it has been elsewhere.

Much like was seen with WW's box-office outside of North America. Black Panther will be, good but not groundbreaking.

I am expecting Black Panther to pull in a little bit better numbers of recent superhero flicks, due to the buzz, but I would be surprised if it reached Captain America: Civil War $180MM levels in China.

THR had a guest columnist talk about Black Panther, of his brother's time as an African-American in Taiwan, and the experience he had expected to face, compared to issues he had not expected to encounter. There was one thing that stood out to me.

His idea that people would want to touch his hair.

I have never been to Taiwan, but I have been to Mainland China. My first times in the Mainland was in the far Northeast, between Siberia and North Korea. An area commonly called in the West as, Manchuria.

Living in this remote blistering cold are, I met Chinese who had never met a foreigner before me.

Many of these Chinese, mostly children, wanted to touch my "golden" hair, my "yellow" hair. My hair is blonde and my eyes are blue.

I could understand their (awe) of my light hair and fair complexion, but when I read this article. I began to understand, and remember, more things beyond just my own experience, and that of the preconceived notions Chinese have for African and African-American individuals.

These cultural and racial notions span before, China's colonialist ideas in their "development" of Africa. Along with, calling people "black" in the Chinese language, historically and today, does not necessarily refer to people of African origin, but people who are darker skinned even among East Asians themselves.

A choice of wording that usually reflects a cultured and economically higher status, by not being "black". There is even a common historical misconception on the internet of Chinese records referring to a once forgotten "black" kingdom, that had invaded and ruled part of southwest China. People jumping to an assumption that this is a reference to a African invading nation, rather than just another Southeast or Southern Asian group of people. Possibly, even one of the minority groups that still exist in SW China.

The 2018 Spring Festival Gala, which dominates TV every year, had a skit to highlight China's growing interests in Africa development. The issue with this skit, is that it was straight out of Jim Crow America; Chinese performer in black face and literally an African performer dressed as a monkey.

Some Chinese viewers were quick to notice that this is, "racist", and this, "would not look good for China in the international eye", but most just shrugged it off as being "funny".

Herein lies the problem.

Chinese people have not come to the realization that they are being racist, or portraying politically incorrect issues with racial undertones.

Now the question people have been asking: "will Black Panther succeed in the Chinese box-office, because of these underlying issues?"

The answer is: Of course, it will succeed, as it is a superhero film, and more importantly a MCU film. So, we should expect to see the standard box-office for all superhero films, or even slightly higher, apply to Black Panther.

The real question people should be asking is: "will Black Panther serve as a cultural influence on Chinese audiences, much like Dangal did for India?"

The answer is: NO. Chinese audiences will have fun with the movie, and enjoy the world building of Wakanda, but it will not stand as a cultural success as Dangal did.

As the issues represented in Dangal were ones that Chinese audiences could culturally relate to. While Black Panther's themes are primarily far from Chinese audiences minds. With the exception of colonialism, but in a completely different context as portrayed from the African continent and its continued resonance in modern culture.

Do not expect Black Panther to pave the way for more African-American movies to enter China, even though Chinese might find Tyler Perry's Medea funny but for different reasons than in the States.

Several commentators have pointed out that Girls Trip did not pass the censors, which left me scratching my head, as I highly doubt that the studio behind the sleeper hit even submitted it for approval.

Girls Trip would not have passed the censor for one reason, and it's not because it has a predominately African-American cast. It's because it is a R-Rated raunchy comedy.

I think Hidden Figures during all its Oscar buzz would have done well in China, and not viewed as a "black film" but an Award Winning film about the Space Race. As films like A Dog's Purpose and Wonder have done well, and Oscar films La La Land and The Revenant, had found their audiences.

Black Panther opens in a couple of days in China, and it will be exciting to see how Chinese movie goers react to it. Though I would say. It is possibly a good thing that the Chinese do not celebrate Halloween, or we might have seen a bunch of kids in black face dressed up as King T'Challa!

Ryan Carroll is an Asian Emerging Markets Consultant, who specializes in; China Film & Entertainment, Developing IP & Shared Universes, for cross-pollination & licensing across all platforms.

Ryan has direct Executive Consulting experience with partners in a range of entertainment & media fields in; India, Norway, China and the United Arab Eremites.

For IP, Ryan focuses on the emerging markets worldwide, and emerging female, minority, disabled, and overlooked cultural demographics.

If you liked what you read please - Follow, Like & Share.