Are Markets About to Reflect Reality?

It is nice to have some company - The brief comments below reflect my views well established over the last two months. Yesterday market action also reflects these concerns -

…A major risk to the downside in yields arises from a potential fallback in business and consumer expectations due to legislative delays in fiscal reform, which had energized animal spirits last year. The tax cut package is currently sequenced after the repeal of the ACA. The proposed American Healthcare Act is facing opposition from within the Republican Party especially after the CBO’s assessment (14mm more uninsured in 2018 with the uninsured penalty coming off, and initially higher premiums). Continued political uncertainty has the potential to weigh on business and consumer sentiment. Another risk is hard economic data. The weakness relative to prior expectations on Q1 gdp (with the Atlanta Fed gdpnow measure dropping to 0.9%) might be due to residual q1 seasonality issues, or it may continue into the second quarter, and the disappointment may very well lead to the intermediate sector of the curve moving lower. –Citi US Rates Weekly, Fear the fear

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