Markets Bearish, $BTC Pullback to $60,500 Likely
Caelan Huntress
Marketing Strategist for Personality-Based Brands ? Crypto, Blockchain, & Web3 comms ? Sales & Business Development
? TL;DR
Bitcoin broke the neckline of a Head & Shoulders pattern, pulling down the rest of the Crypto market. A midweek pump after the FOMC meeting stalled out. Curve founder Michael Egorov was liquidated from some very big loans, crashing his liquid staking token $CRV to all-time lows.
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?? Market Moves
This week was bearish for the Top 100 tokens.
Bitcoin has created a classic Head & Shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe.
If it confirms below the neckline, we could see a pullback to $60,500 - the same distance from the peak of the Head to the neckline from the breakdown.
This is not actionable until it confirms, when a candle closes lower than the first candle closing below the breakdown.
Given the institutional interest and price manipulation, this could be turned around by market makers, so I won't be entering a short, or exiting my spot positions, until I see confirmation on the daily timeframe.
However, I could also see those who manipulate the markets wanting a lower entry for large amounts of institutional capital - so the price could likely be manipulated either way. What the chart tells us is this is a big bearish signal to be monitored.
There is also a Bearish Divergence on the RSI, which isn't actionable by itself, but does add a layer of confluence.
?? Expert Analysis
[13:26] Technical Roundup with Crypto Cred
TL;DW Takeaways:
?? BTC Range Strategy: Focus trades at the $60k and $70k extremities; avoid the middle ($65k) for better opportunities.
?? Key BTC Levels: Watch the midpoint around $65k for strong market signals; otherwise, wait for moves near $60k or $70k.
?? ETH ETF Play: Consider buying ETH before ETF approval if you expect a positive outcome, but brace for a potential drop below $3600.
?? Trading Balance: Prefer extreme price levels over mid-range for trades to capitalize on market inefficiencies.
?? Avoid Noise: Steer clear of low time-frame, impulsive trades during consolidations; wait for clear breakouts for safer bets.
领英推荐
[1:08:04] DCA Live with CTO Larsson, InvestAnswers, and Rekt Mando
TL;DW Takeaways:
?? Monitor Mondays: Bitcoin's best buy day remains Monday. Keep an eye on price levels around $69k for potential entry points or further stagnation.
?? Watch Basis Trade: Be aware of hedge funds' basis trade (buying ETFs, shorting futures). This can mislead apparent inflows and affect market dynamics.
?? Track Rate Changes: Stay alert to rate cuts and macroeconomic shifts, especially in the US and Europe, as they can impact Bitcoin's price and investor sentiment.
?? Prepare for Breakouts: Watch for significant inflows or buyers. A price move above $72k could trigger short-covering and a rapid upward spike.
?? Altcoin Focus: Ethereum ETF news hasn't spiked prices. Solana's strong DEX volume could signal growth; consider opportunities in Solana over Ethereum for meme coin and DEX activities.
[30:48] Market Mavericks with Gareth Soloway, Scott Melker, and Mike McGlone
TL;DW Takeaways:
?? Prepare for Deflation: Expect a deflationary trend similar to 1929; be cautious with long positions and consider hedging against downturns.
?? Watch for FED Interventions: Stay alert for FED actions to counter deflation; anticipate potential liquidity injections that could stabilize or boost markets.
?? Monitor Market Signals: Pay attention to historical cycles, commodity prices, and unemployment trends as indicators of market corrections.
?? Crypto Caution: Despite ETF inflows, Bitcoin is showing weakness; be wary of volatility and potential drops aligned with broader market corrections.
?? Tech Stock Alert: The surge in tech stocks might be a bubble; evaluate fundamentals and be ready for a pullback if market exuberance wanes.
?? Dates To Watch
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? Investment Quote
"Knowing what you don't know is more useful than being brilliant." - Charlie Munger
?? Disclaimer
This is not financial advice, and the author, Caelan Huntress, is not a financial advisor, he's just a dude on the internet. Do your own research, wipe your own nose, and read this newsletter for education and entertainment purposes only.
?? Until Next Week
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