Market Update
Energies are lower as the API data disappointed last night -with crude supplies growing instead of the expected draw. Also product supplies grew more than expected.
Iraqi Nov oil output as reported by them was seen at 4,595 mln bpd -up 19,000 bpd from October--Platts sees their output at 4,64 mln --their quota is currently 4,512 mln -and set to drop by
50,000 bpd in the new pact. (Platts)
Venezuela's November crude production is said to have risen by 20% from 761,000 in October to between 928,000 and 965,000 bpd (Reuters)
OPEC in its monthly report out today kept their demand and supply forecasts for 2019 and 2020 unchanged from last month.(WSJ)
Yesterday the EIA in its monthly energy outlook reduced their forecasts for 2019 and 2020 US oil output growth. 2019 growth was seen as 1,26 mln vs prior figure of +1,3 mln ---2020 output growth is seen at 930,000 bpd --down from prior +1,0 mln bpd estimate --they raised their oil price forecasts slightly for 2020--up +0,7% --they see 2020 avge Brent at $60.01 and WTI at $55.01 (Reuters)
API Forecast Actual
Crude oil -2,8/-3,1 +1,4
Gasoline +2,4/+3,3 +4,9
Distillate +1,1/+2,0 +3,2
Cushing n/av -3,5
Runs +0,8/+0,9% n/av
The WSJ reported Tuesday that groundwork was being laid for a delay in the imposition of tariffs this Sunday. Although White House advisor Kudlow said tuesday that the tariffs were "still on the table" (CNBC)
Technically we see WTI DC momentum getting very near overbought -and the market having failed to approach the 5985 seen Friday when the OPEC accord was announced.
For today we see WTI resistance at 5952 then 5985 --support comes in at 5866-68 then 5823-30
ULSD Jan support is seen at 19250-55--resistance at 19595-19600 ( the overnight high is 19590) --then resistance lies at 19689-93
Jan RB support lies at 16334-42 ( the low is 16354)--then at 16217-28--resistance lies at 16666-16683 then at 16840-45
NG is up 2,5 cts as the rally from yesterday continues.
NG rallied Tuesday midday as cooler forecasts were trotted out--or as WSJ headline said the rally was based on :""Easing Fears of Excess Supply""
Chevron Corp. expects to write down as much as $11 billion in the fourth quarter, more than half of it from its Appalachia natural gas assets after a slump in prices. The company's CEO's mantra is "capital discipline" (Bloomberg)
Yesterday the EIA forecast NG prices for 2020 to average $2.45 ---down 1,3% from their November prediction.
Technically Ng still has negative momentum on its DC chart --but has step laddered up since seeing the test of 2.200 Monday...for today we see resistance at 2311-2313--then at the gap area created over the weekend at 2328-2336-- -support lies at 2256-2258 then at 2213-2216
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