Market Update
Energies are mixed with RB and Brent higher but ULSD and WTI lower.
WTI has been mostly lower overnight due to concern that a US China trade deal will not be ready for signing when the leaders meet next month at a summit in Chile. (Reuters) Also hurting crude oil was the API data - news wires are pointing to the rise in Cushing crude as a negative ---and news reports are differing as to the crude oil draw seen in the API data.
Saudi Aramco is said to be set to launch their long awaited IPO Nov 3--with trading in shares set for early December on the Saudi stock market.(WSJ)
A key southern Iraqi port is shut due to protests --the port is a hub for commodities which are needed to feed the population --the Reuters article featured no mention of any issues regarding oil shipments- as yet.
WSJ yesterday featured an article detailing the fact that shale producers are dialing back output to free up cash to pay back debt, buy back shares and pay investors.
API Forecast Actual
Crude oil +0,7/+2,5 -0,708
Gasoline -2,1/-2,5 -4,7
Distillate -2,4 -1,61
Cushing +1,5 +1,2
Runs +0,5 n/av
Technically WTI & ULSD have negative momentum --with RB momentum getting overbought.
RB looks positive though in its price action with Dec resistance seen at 16597 then 16750-64. Support lies at
16381-91 then 16259-62.
Dec ULSD support comes in at 19166-69--resistance at 19609-13 then 19788-99.
Brent spot futures support lies at 6119-23 then 6064-66---with resistance seen at 6190-98 then 6234
Dec WTI support is seen at 5460-62 then 5403-06--resistance lies at 5591 then 5641-51
Dec Ng futures are up almost 8 cts from yesterday's settlement as weather forecasts maintained a chilly outlook for the next two weeks -as per NGI reporting.
This week's EIA storage data is seen as an injection of 85 bcf as per Platts survey --which is higher than last year's
+49 bcf and the 5 yr avg +65 bcf ---but next week's number as per
+Platts Analytics is seen as a +47 bcf --which would
be the first below 5 yr avg injection in months--the 5 yr avg for next week's number is +57 bcf.
Technically Ng is firm with positive price action and momentum as it pushes over the 2710 major high from September.
Above this we see resistance in the 2732-2733 area.... Support lies at 2639-2641-then at 2600-2603.
The only drawback for the NG contract is that it is trading above its upper Bollinger band on the DC & daily charts-- the DC value lies at about 2.630-2.635, while the Dec daily chart sees its upper Bollinger in the 2690 area.
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