Market Report 12th November 2024

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In today’s market report, we review the week from the 5th to the 11th of November 2024.

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International Gas Market Review

5th Nov 24

British near-term gas prices surged with the NBP spot price rising by over 4% to close at 101.35 p/therm, driven by rising demand and falling renewable output. On the forward curve, the Sum-2025 contract rose by 2.6%, closing at 95.48 p/therm following news that an anticipated European gas deal with Azerbaijan to replace Russian gas flows may not be as reliable as initially reported.

6th Nov 24

British near-term gas prices rose with the NBP spot price increasing by over 1% to close at 102.60 p/therm, driven by weak renewable output and restricted power imports from France. On the forward curve, the Sum-2025 contract climbed by 0.4%, settling at 95.89 p/therm as markets remain vigilant over a potential Iranian response to recent Israeli actions. However, this support was tempered by the return of the Freeport and Sabine Pass LNG facilities in the US from unplanned outages.

7th Nov 24

British near-term gas prices edged down with the NBP spot price declining by 0.2% to close at 102.40 p/therm, driven by healthy Norwegian supply. On the forward curve, the Sum-2025 contract fell by 0.9%, settling at 95.07 p/therm, as the recent victory of a Trump presidency and a Republican Congress boosted prospects for US LNG exports.

8th Nov 24

British near-term gas prices moved higher with the NBP spot price rising by over 1% to reach 103.65 p/therm, driven by increased domestic demand due to colder temperatures. On the forward curve, the Sum-2025 contract climbed by nearly 3%, closing at 97.57 p/therm amid concerns about Hurricane Rafael’s potential impact on U.S. oil and LNG facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

11th Nov 24

British near-term gas prices rose with the NBP spot price climbing by over 2% to close at 106.15 p/therm, driven by increased demand linked to a rise in heating degree days. Further along the curve, the Sum-2025 contract rose by 2%, settling at 99.62 p/therm due to the planned shutdown at Australia’s Northwest Shelf LNG facility in Q1 2025.

International Gas Market Review daily values table

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International Carbon Credit Pricing Analysis

7th Nov 24

European carbon prices also declined, with the EUA Dec-2024 contract dropping by 0.8% to close at 63.76 EUR/tonne, reflecting the broader bearish market sentiment.

8th Nov 24

European carbon prices surged, with the EUA Dec-2024 contract advancing by 3.6% to 66.04 EUR/tonne. This increase was attributed to a late surge in "short covering" in the power market, triggering additional buying in carbon and natural gas.

11th Nov 24

European carbon prices continued their rally with the EUA Dec-2024 contract advancing by 3% to close at 68.02 EUR/tonne, driven by strong power and gas markets, as well as technical buying triggered by lower temperature forecasts for much of Europe.

International Carbon Credit Pricing Analysis daily values table

That's all for today. Feel free to leave a comment with your opinion.

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