Market Rasen Summer Plate 2016

Market Rasen holds its most prestigious meeting on Saturday afternoon with the feature race being the Summer Plate. Summer Jump racing may not be to everyone’s taste, especially whilst the Flat season is in full flow, but this meeting at the Lincolnshire course always attracts a large informed fan base with the races attracting very competitive fields.

Let’s take a look at the all important trends and statistics over the last ten years to try and help pinpoint Saturday’s big race winner.

Weight (winners-placed-runners)

11st 7lb or more: 0-7-26

11st to 11st 6lb: 4-6-41

10st 7lb to 10st 13lb: 5-5-49

10st 6lb or less: 1-7-33

Top weights have at best placed second in recent years but without any wins.

The last ten winners have carried between 10st 6lb and 11st 5lb to victory.

Age (winners-placed-runners)

5-y-o: 0-0-2, 6-y-o: 1-3-18, 7-y-o: 4-6-36, 8-y-o: 1-8-33, 9-y-o: 2-4-31, 10-y-o: 2-2-18, 11-y-o+: 0-2-11.

No real age bias of any note over this period.

Ratings

138 or higher: 1-6-37

127 to 137: 9-16-98

126 or below: 0-3-14

It is highly significant to note that nine of the last ten winners were rated between 127 and 135.

Horse breeding

Irish:  8-16-86, French: 2-6-30, GB: 0-2-26, USA: 0-1-5 Other: 0-0-2.

Form

Eight of the last ten winners either ran at Ffos Las, Stratford or Worcester on their last run.

Ten out of ten winners managed to finish in the first three on their last chase start.

Eight out of ten winners had won at least one chase since April 1st.

Six winners won last time out.

Not one of the last winners had previously won a National Hunt race worth more than ￡13,000.

Trainers

Peter Bowen (3-4-23) is a name synonymous with this fixture over the years, taking the race in 2006, 2007 and 2008.

David Pipe (1-2-9) is also one to watch. His father had a strong record in the race too.

Jonjo O’Neill (2-3-16) saddled the winners in 2009 and 2014 and loves to land a winner for the owner J.P McManus.

Starting Price

No real trends to speak of in the starting price returns other than three favourites have figured in the last ten years.

Race Summary

Given the fact that Peter Bowen won this race three years in a row from 2006 to 2008 he has to be taken very seriously and he will be hoping that either Wadswick Court or Tony Star can add to those successes. The eight-year-old, Wadswick Court is in decent form and was looking like the winner before unseating last time out at Perth over two and a half miles. The going and the track look ideal for him.

The Jonjo O’Neill trained It’s A Gimme won this renewal in 2014 and surprisingly has never won again in six attempts. After almost a year off the track he had a “livener” at Uttoxeter last time out and knowing Jonjo, he will have come on leaps and bounds since. It’s A Gimme carries six pounds more than he did in 2014 but it should not be a problem.

Top weight Ballynagour is officially rated seven pounds superior to all his rivals here. He has just three wins from 21 starts but he has been running in much better company than this, namely in the Aintree Grand National and he was pulled up behind Cue Card at Kempton in the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day. He ran well at Uttoxeter when second to Drop Out Joe last time out but that was over a much longer distance and it will be a surprise to see him keep up with the pace of this race which is usually run hell-for-leather.

Germany Calling, looks well handicapped off a mark of 139, just the two pounds higher than last time out. He ran at Cheltenham in the Grand Annual Chase but it was probably too short a trip for him. He could be a big player in this field.

Prediction: 1. Wadswick Court 2. Germany Calling 3. It’s A Gimme

*Wadswick Court is now a N/R*