The currency market will have eyes only for the US inflation report this week but at a political level Cyril Ramaphosa will meet Joe Biden on Friday, and there’s a better than good chance Biden will want to discuss why SA twice decided to abstain from UN votes on reprimanding Russia for invading Ukraine.??
These are the mid rates at 7:15 today:
Brent Crude = $91.45 per barrel
- While still at elevated levels the Rand managed to end the week on the front foot thanks to some much needed Dollar weakness.?We went into Friday at R17.39 to the Dollar and made it all the way to R17.18 as the intraday best before closing at R17.25.
- Profit taking was the order of the day on Friday as traders locked in Dollar gains ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation reading.?The Dollar Index had recently climbed as high as 110.77, and while various FED members assured the market last week that further outsized rate hikes are needed, which usually signals Dollar strength, the greenback was sold off just in case we get an out of consensus inflation number.?The Dollar Index fell to 108.39 allowing the Rand to hit R17.18.
- The FED are now in a blackout period where they cannot say anything ahead of their September 21st?policy announcement but they did everything possible to remove all doubt last week.?FED Chair Jerome Powell said that they will keep lifting rates to tame inflation “until the job is done”, Christopher Waller said he “supports a significant increase at our next meeting” while James Bullard went one further by stating he will be voting for another 75bps hike.?As things stand the FED Funds Futures are pricing in an 87% chance of a third straight 75bps hike next Wednesday, let’s see if tomorrow’s CPI report can change that.?
- The following from Reuters talks to the Dollar’s pullback, and how that could just be a temporary reprieve:??The Dollar fell to a more than one-week low on Friday as investors consolidated gains after a sharp rise against most currencies, ahead of a US inflation report that could determine the size of the FED’s rate hike at this month's policy meeting. "Probably position-taking will be light until the FED meeting. The market looked at everything overnight and decided that this is a good juncture to square up and that process has brought the Dollar lower. But this is not a reversal of the trend on Dollar strength,"?said Greg Anderson, global head of FX strategy, at BMO Capital Markets in New York.
- Locally our market will be focused on our July mining production stat on Tuesday followed by retail sales figures for the same month on Wednesday.?Mining is a significant contributor our GDP as well as corporate tax base and so hopefully forecasts for sixth consecutive month of declines will be proven incorrect.?The year-on-year retail sales number is expected to be artificially high at 8%, this as July 2022 is being compared to July 2021 when retailers in KZN and parts of Gauteng were closed due to looting.??
- No local market data today, and please note that I will only be sending out a report today and tomorrow as I’m travelling from Wednesday onwards.
- Possible USD mid rate trading ranges in the Rand today are R17.15 and R17.45.?