Market Insights: Yield Curve Flattening, Moody's Bank Downgrades, and Inflation Data – A Week of Mixed Signals.

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发布日期: 2023年8月12日
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August 7-11, 2023

  1. Yield Curve Flattening: The 2s10s yield curve inversion reached its flattest since May, with hawkish Fed speakers emphasizing data-dependency and a mixed industry positioning on Treasurys.
  2. Moody's Bank Downgrades: Moody's downgraded several U.S. banks, driving rates lower. Fed commentary supported a "higher for longer" narrative.
  3. CPI and PPI Data Release: Mixed reactions in swap rates and Treasury yields were observed ahead of the CPI print. The CPI print continued the year's deflationary trend, while PPI figures were higher than expected.
  4. Rates Nearing 2022 Highs: Inflation week ended with rates edging closer to 2022 highs, driven by higher PPI figures. The divergence between CPI and PPI complicates the Fed's decision-making process.
  5. Week Ahead: Key releases include retail sales, FOMC minutes, and comments from hawkish voter Kashkari, along with manufacturing, housing starts, and industrial production figures.

#YieldCurve #Inflation #Fedspeak @FederalReserve @MoodysAnalytics

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