Market Insights: Swiss Job Trends, Dutch Inflation, and Nordic Economic Shifts
Welcome to my latest newsletter, where I summarise key economic and employment trends across EMEA’s specialist regions.
In Switzerland, the job market is facing notable changes, while the Netherlands sees rising inflation and a new leader in employer attractiveness. Meanwhile, the Nordics are grappling with labour shortages, and it is predicted that the Norwegian krone is expected to outperform the Swedish krona this summer.
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Switzerland
Swiss Job Index: The Downward Trend Continues
The Adecco Group Swiss Job Market Index revealed an 11% drop in job vacancies in Q2 2024 from the previous year, approaching pre-pandemic levels. Job vacancies fell prominently in German-speaking Switzerland compared to other regions.
The index identified that the drop in demand mainly impacted three groups: office jobs (-20%), health specialists (-19%) and graduate IT positions (-19%). Six of the 14 professions analysed in the index also appear to have stagnated.
Conversely, job vacancies for construction and trade jobs (plumber, electrician etc) increased by 10%. However, Adecco states that the trend in growth this profession has experienced since 2021 has now ended, noting a 4% decrease in the category when comparing Q3&4 of 2023 to 2024.
Overall, the Swiss job market is cooling, with notable declines in specific regions and vacancies.
In July, Switzerland's KOF Economic Barometer fell by 1.7 points to 101.0, moving closer to its medium-term average after a robust spring quarter. This decrease indicates that the Swiss economy is likely to experience moderate growth in the near term. The outlook for both foreign and consumer demand has deteriorated, with negative trends emerging in hospitality, construction, services, and manufacturing. However, the financial and insurance sectors have remained resilient. In manufacturing, sectors such as electrical, wood, and machinery are facing difficulties, while the metal, textile, and paper industries show improved prospects.
Netherlands
ASML crowned ‘Most Attractive Employer’ in the Netherlands
ASML has been voted the ‘Most Attractive Employer’ in the Netherlands, according to Randstad Employer Brand Research, which surveyed over 12,570 Dutch workers. The high-tech sector remains the most attractive private sector, while scientific education tops the public sector.
The research highlights the importance of salary, work-life balance, and job security. ASML excels in financial health, career opportunities, and work environment. Michiel Evers, Head of Talent Acquisition Europe at ASML, credits their employees' innovative spirit for this recognition.
The demand for technically trained professionals in the semiconductor industry is expected to grow, and ASML aims to further enhance the appeal of the tech sector.
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Inflation in NL reaches 3.7% in July
Inflation in the Netherlands rose to 3.7% in July from 3.2% in June and 2.7% in May, driven by higher food, beverage, tobacco, and service prices. Energy prices remained stable compared to June. Using the European harmonised method, Dutch inflation was 3.5% in July. The Eurozone's inflation rate was 2.4% in June. Updated figures will be released by CBS later this month.
Nordics
Sweden seeks foreign workers to address labour shortages
Sweden is facing significant labour shortages, particularly in the education and healthcare sectors, with nearly 40 occupations affected. The country’s Labour Minister highlighted the urgent need for staff in various regions, despite rising unemployment.
A 2023 report identifies critical shortages in roles like healthcare professionals, teachers, and mechanics. This shortage presents an opportunity for foreign workers, as work permits have become the primary reason for residence permits in 2024, with a 30% increase in issuance compared to the previous year. The demand spans various sectors, including services, construction, and manufacturing, with streamlined visa processes for highly qualified workers.
Norwegian Krone Set to Outperform Swedish Krone This Summer Amid Diverging Economic Dynamics
The Norwegian krone (NOK) and Swedish krona (SEK) experienced a weak first quarter, followed by a rebound in the second. NOK, with higher volatility due to its lower liquidity, showed a stronger response to changes in USD rates compared to SEK. External factors have been the main drivers of both currencies.
ING explains that the Norges Bank’s relatively hawkish stance has given NOK an edge over SEK, supported by a favourable rate differential. Sweden’s weaker labour market and higher unemployment have led the Riksbank to adopt a more dovish approach, focusing on domestic concerns. NOK is predicted to outperform SEK over the summer, driven by global and regional factors, with NOK/SEK likely to trade above parity. However, the upcoming U.S. election could introduce volatility, potentially affecting both currencies, with NOK potentially suffering more in the short term but SEK facing longer-term risks due to protectionist policies.
EMEA Recruitment News
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HR and AI with Pleasure
6 个月Thank you for this comprehensive update on the economic and employment trends across EMEA, Paul Toms! It's fascinating to see the nuanced shifts in various regions. One additional insight worth considering is the impact of remote work trends on these dynamics. For instance, the decline in office jobs in Switzerland might be partially influenced by companies adopting more flexible work arrangements, reducing the need for traditional office roles.