Market at a glance: Jingle bells [November 2023]

Dear community,

As the year ends, the financial markets have wrapped it up with a more than welcome gift: solid performance across almost all asset classes, pushing our portfolios further into green territory. 2023 wasn't exactly easy, so seeing patience rewarded is heartening. Before we step into 2024, let’s take a moment to reflect.?

In our “Market at a glance” section, we'll delve into the market activity during the vibrant month of November.?

In our “Demystification room” section, we’ll explore a rather intriguing question: Is there such a thing as the “December” or “January” effect in financial markets??

And as usual, because our schedule is as bustling as the markets, we're excited to share important news and other significant updates with you.?

On behalf of Alpian, we wish you a joyful festive season!

Market at a glance: Jingle bells???

Our pick for this month is “A very chilly Christmas” by the eccentric Canadian pianist Chilly Gonzalez. Here’s the reason: Markets seem to believe that Santa Claus is coming soon, because what a month November was!

Let's review some of the action:? ?

Key takeaways ?

• November 2023 was remarkable for financial markets, with U.S. equities seeing a 9.6% gain, marking it among the top performing months since 1950. This rally included broader stock participation, contrasting with earlier trends.?
• The surge is attributed to a shift in investor sentiment, despite only marginal macroeconomic improvements.?
• Despite the recent gains, many investors' portfolios have not yet recovered from the past two years' losses.?
• The bond market experienced one of its best months in nearly 40 years, driven by the anticipation of lower interest rates.?
• Digital assets, particularly Bitcoin, saw significant gains, while commodities, except gold, declined. Surprisingly, energy and food prices dropped despite tight supply and increasing demand.?
• The Swiss Franc (CHF) continued to strengthen against other currencies, affecting foreign investment returns. Hedging was beneficial for EUR and USD investments.?
• The positive trend in November raises questions about market complacency, but the outlook for 2024 remains optimistic, with diverse investment opportunities emerging in various asset classes.?
• Bonds and digital assets are expected to perform well, potentially easing market navigation in the coming year.?

Read the full analysis here

Demystification room: Is there any surprising Seasonal Magic behind your investments??

Is there such a thing as a December or January effect in markets? Do markets tend to show better performance in this period???

If you ever heard people discussing this topic and wondered if there was any truth to it, we provide here some facts.??

With individuals heading off for the winter holiday season, companies taking breaks, and businesses making last-minute Christmas offerings to round off their accounting with favorable figures, it's natural to assume that these activities have some impact on the financial markets.??

We delved into this data to explore potential patterns, and what we discovered over a long period is intriguing. December regularly stood out with remarkable returns, averaging 1.21% across markets, compared to the overall yearly average of 0.52%. January also held its own with an average return of 0.94%.??

Upon closer scrutiny of well-established markets, the S&P 500 emerges as a notably stable index. Historically, December and January have shown slightly more favorable performance than the rest of the year, averaging since 1927. Over the past four decades, the Swiss Market Index and Euro Stoxx 50 have consistently demonstrated superior returns in December compared to January. In contrast, Japan and Gold consistently showcased a more favorable performance in December compared to January.??

The January and December Effect has appeared to wane in recent decades.??

While December and January have historically been more bullish months, this trend is not consistent every year. For instance, December 2022 was rather disappointing. The month of January experienced negative returns for three consecutive years from 2014 to 2016. So, it is important to take statistics with a pinch of salt when investing.?

Clock’s ticking: Final chance to refer and earn!??

Our holiday referral campaign has been a great success, all thanks to your enthusiasm in sharing Alpian! So remember: If you haven't referred anyone yet, both you and your referred friend can earn a CHF 100 bonus before Christmas. But the clock is ticking, because this exclusive offer ends in less than 7 days, on December 15th, so seize this golden opportunity while it lasts!?Learn more.

News: Introducing Alpian PULSE?

Alpian PULSE has arrived, our banking offering designed for those between 18 and 25 years old. It's a unique opportunity to experience banking excellence, right from the start, with 24 months completely free, a CHF voucher from Titolo as a welcome reward, and access to all the benefits of any Alpian client. Because when we say that superior banking should be accessible to everyone, we really mean it.?Learn more.

Give us your feedback!

We've been curating this newsletter for a whole year now. If you have any thoughts or suggestions on how we can make our upcoming editions even better, feel free to comment below and share your insights with us.