Market closure September 6, 2024

Stock indices moderate their declines

Day of generalized declines in world stock markets due to the return of volatility to the technology sector and uncertainties about the cooling of the US economy.?

In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell by 1.5%, with ASML losing more than 5% for the second time this week.? The tone has been more sustained in indices such as the IBEX 35 (-0.8%) and the French CAC 40 (-1%) with less technological weight.

In the Asia-Pacific region, China's weakness continues after the latest macroeconomic data. Hong Kong's Hang Seng has had no losses, but the Shanghai Composite has fallen 0.8%. In Japan, the TOPIX has lost 0.9%.

Wall Street closed this Friday in red and the S&P 500 index ended its worst week since March 2023, falling 4.23% in the weekly count after the weak August employment report and the decline of several technology giants.

More about USA Markets

After the bell, the S&P 500 fell 1.01%, to 40,345 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, its main indicator, fell 1.72% and the technological Nasdaq fell 2.55%. up to 16,690 units.

After plunging in July, net new job creation rose again in August to 142,000, 53,000 more than a month earlier, after the July figure was revised to 89,000.

Despite the increase, the figure is lower than the figure that economists estimated (160,000) and is still below the annual average of job creation which, according to the BLS, stands at 202,000 jobs created per month on average. in the last year.

“By all accounts, the labor market remains solid, but the Federal Reserve must lower interest rates to levels commensurate with the inflation situation and the evolution of the main labor market indicators,” notes Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI).

Fixed income

New annual lows for US sovereign debt IRRs,

The market has once again shown some fear about the possibility of an excessive weakening of the US economy, which would lead the Fed to more pronounced rate cuts, favoring further declines in the yield of sovereign bonds. The IRR of the 2-year US Bond has stood at 3.66%, and the IRR of the 10-year Treasury stands at 3.65%.

In Europe, the 10-year Bund IRR has dropped 3 bp to 2.17% and the Spanish reference 2 bp to 2.99%.

After the good rise in August, in September, it falls.

Raw materials/commodities and currencies

OPEC+ fails to stop the fall in oil.

The price of oil continues to fall despite the fact that OPEC+ is discussing the possibility of postponing the increase in production planned for October and avoiding excess supply in the market. Brent stood at $71.2/barrel today, close to its three-year low.

The dollar has weakened again this week with the EUR/USD cross recovering the level of 1.11 after indicators that maintain expectations of rate cuts in the US.

Nasdaq 100 Index

The technological index reference, Nasdaq 100, once again loses important areas, generating a continuation of the bearish trend with descending highs.

Nvidia making more money, but falling, among others, does not help the selective, without forgetting that September is always a bad average month for international stock markets.

DATA CRYPTO

US Senator: Proposes Bold Bitcoin Strategy!?

Senator Cynthia Lummis, from the state of Wyoming, a Republican, has introduced the BITCOIN ACT, seeking to create a strategic reserve of Bitcoin for the US. It is something that has already been talked about by other Republican members and senators, but it is very Interesting at a fundamental level, the key points it proposes:

Key points:

* Goal: Address the $35 trillion national debt.

* Plan: Buy 1 million BTC (5% of total supply) in 5 years.?

* Financing: Revalue gold certificates at the current price.

* Storage: Keep BTC in "cold storage" for 20 years.?

*Projected impact: Reduce the national debt by half …

Lummis argues that it is the only viable solution he has found in his career to address US debt and maintain the strength of the USD. The proposal has gained support from unexpected quarters, including Mr. Trump.

L2s · Monthly active users?

Monthly Active Users (MAU) in a layer 2 (L2) blockchain refers to the number of unique users who interact with the network in a 30-day period. In the context of an L2, users could be carrying out various activities such as transactions, interactions with smart contracts, use of decentralized applications (DApps), among others. These metrics are important for measuring network usage and adoption.

How does the MAU affect the price of the reference token?

The number of Monthly Active Users can have a significant impact on the token price of an L2 blockchain, due to several factors:

Token demand: As the MAU increases, the demand for the underlying token may increase. Many L2 tokens are needed to pay transaction fees or to interact with specific services on the network. With more active users, the demand for these tokens also grows, which can lead to an increase in price.

Network Adoption: A higher number of monthly active users suggests broader network adoption. This could attract investors who see the network as successful, boosting the value of the token.

Trust and market perception: MAUs are a key metric for evaluating the “health” of a blockchain. If MAUs are increasing steadily, investors can see this as a sign that the network is growing and has long-term potential. This can lead to an increase in price due to increased confidence.

Application ecosystem: If the increase in MAU is driven by a proliferation of DApps or new projects on the L2, this may also increase interest in the native token, as users will need tokens to interact with these applications.

In the following graph, you can perfectly see what is happening with the tokens, crypto assets, referenced to their own blockchain.

BTC Realized Cap for New Whales

What is the Realized Cap?

Realized Cap is a different metric than traditional Bitcoin market capitalization. While the market capitalization is calculated by simply multiplying the current price by the total number of coins in circulation, the Realized Cap is based on the price at which each coin last moved on the chain. Therefore, it takes into account the value at the time the bitcoins were purchased rather than the current price.

For example, if someone bought BTC at $1,000 and hasn't moved those coins yet, the Realized Cap counts that BTC at $1,000, not the current price.

What does Realized Cap for New Whales mean?

Realized Cap for New Whales refers to the added value of bitcoins that have recently been purchased and moved by new large market participants (whales). It is an important metric because when new whales acquire large amounts of BTC at high prices, this indicates a significant level of trust on the part of actors with high purchasing power.

Importance in Bitcoin rises

Institutional demand and large investors: An increase in Realized Cap by new whales suggests that large institutional buyers or high net worth investors are entering the market. This may signal the beginning of a new bullish phase, as these investors usually have a long-term view and are confident in price growth.

Psychological and confidence impact: When big players buy at high prices, it is generally perceived as a sign that Bitcoin still has room to grow, attracting more investors. Whales have the ability to influence market sentiment.

Price support: Whales that buy at high prices usually defend their positions, which means they are less likely to sell in the short term. This can create price support, helping the price of Bitcoin hold or even rise.

Liquidity and supply reduction: When whales acquire large amounts of BTC and hold them in their wallets, they decrease the supply available in the market. This can reduce selling pressure and increase the price if demand remains high.

Example in bullish cycles

In previous bull cycles, the increase in the Realized Cap for new whales has been an early sign of a bull run. For example, during the bull phase of 2020-2021, the accumulation of Bitcoin by large investors such as MicroStrategy and Tesla was a key factor contributing to the rise in Bitcoin price.

We can observe the difference or similarity between the year 2020 and the year 2024 (current as of September 6, 2024).

The accumulation of whales (strong hands in crypto slang) is a fact and should be the starting signal for new higher prices.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Today I show two charts, the first in reference to August, with the price in support and rapid reversal in important fibo zones, within the theoretical second fibonacci price structure.

In the second we already bring the magnifying glass closer, to observe the short-term situation, after finding the theoretical support mentioned in the previous graph.

The price is making a bearish channel in a theoretical flag of bullish continuation, although it can be seen how it penetrates in August to create support in the fibo of the second structure.

Will he continue to go down or has he already had enough punishment?

If the support already reached continues to decline, it is very important for the medium term. If not, this bearish flag channel can give us many clues about its subsequent development.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index

The fear and greed index for bitcoin is a tool that helps investors and traders analyze the Bitcoin and Crypto market from a sentiment perspective.?

Currently, it is at 23 points, indicating that although it could go down further, there should not be too much time (perhaps weeks) for the price to begin an upward turn.

In the previous graph, we also observe the entire bitcoin price structure, with the GFI, in recent years, to evaluate future possibilities.

Legal warning: This content is for informational and educational purposes. There is no consumer protection. Your capital is subject to risks. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset or crypto asset. Please do your own research (DYOR) or contact your trusted financial advisor.