Market closure July 19, 2024

In a week where the attempted attack on Trump has been the most talked about, the political situation in the United States of America has taken on all the weight that being the great world market gives it, to date, and any uncertainty, makes it move markets, as a rule, downward.

In the crypto world, this is not yet reflected and it has been rising after finding relevant supports and now, it has returned to short-term resistance zones, but it could continue to rise.

DATA EUROPE

The European data, for their main indices, have been affected by the American situation, and in general, the markets closed negative on Friday, after a very busy week.

EURO Stoxx 50 Chart

The European reference index, after its great rise at the end of the year and the beginning of 2024, seems to be reaching a resistance zone and we even observe a possible secondary downward trend.

It could even fall something else.

DATA USA

The US markets closed higher this Friday the 19th?

Attempted attacks against prominent political figures, such as former President Donald Trump, may generate a variety of responses in financial markets in the United States and elsewhere. These events usually increase uncertainty and can cause volatility in the markets for several reasons:

Political Uncertainty: Financial markets react negatively to political uncertainty. An attempted attack against a prominent political figure raises concerns about the stability of the political system and the possible long-term repercussions.

Geopolitical Risk: Investors may perceive an increase in geopolitical risk, which may lead to risk aversion and a migration toward safer assets such as gold, US Treasuries, and the Swiss franc.

Impact on Economic Policies: Depending on the context, an attack can affect the perception of the implementation of economic policies. If the affected figure has an important role in formulating economic policies, markets can react to the possibility of changes or interruptions in those policies.

Emotional Reactions: Markets can also react emotionally and speculatively to immediate news. The first reactions are usually massive selling of stocks and other risk assets due to uncertainty.

In reference to the United States indices, this has been the case and we are observing a bearish week, since the markets do not like the uncertainties.?

But it has been a back and forth movement, since first the markets have risen, in a somewhat strange way, because they should not have done so, and then, Thursday and Friday, it (the U.S.A. indexes) has fallen.

U.S. Chart

The configuration shown, on trends in the Dow Jones Industrials chart, reflects a different, but probable analysis.

A lot of caution in the markets, for the short term.

DATA CRYPTO

Bitcoin Price Chart

As written last week: "Bitcoin seems to have completed a bearish module 2, in Fibonacci measurement. The rule indicates that it should try to continue rising.”

Between the bearish movements he made a bullish one and again after the second bearish one, and in continuation of last week's words, he could be encountering resistance, or so it seems.

Environments of 67000/500 USD as a control zone, although a priori it would continue to rise in the long term, now search for ascending minimums for continuation.

If it continues to rise, the price could look for around 68100/300 and later 70200 USD.

Bitcoin Fear and Greek Index

The Fear and Greed Index for bitcoin, is a tool that helps investors and traders analyze the Bitcoin and Crypto market from a sentiment perspective. Identify the extent to which the market is becoming too fearful or too greedy.?

Last week, we commented that in the 25/30 zone there were areas of possible bullish turn for bitcoin.

But in addition to that, this week, right now, the Fear & Greed Index is at 74 basis points, which means that it has returned to areas of great congestion, and possible ultra-short-term resistance.

In the following graph, you can see, graphically, how the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has once again reached the area above 70 basis points - a natural area of possible resistance, which must be taken into account.

In the following graph, and for bitcoin, we find in a 6-year graph of bitcoin, its price and by color, the FGI (Fear & Greed Index) zones, where we can see how last week it was in zones of 25/ 30 (yellow to orange) and right now, the 70/75 points have returned to green, where in the long term, the price moves very well for ascending positions, but in the short term, it can mean respites, to look for bullish minimums continuation.

Bitcoin Long Term Power Law Chart

Bitcoin Long Term Power Law Explained

We once again offer this graph for the observation of Bitcoin Long Term Power Law Explained, in case in previous weekly market articles it has not been read since we think this onchain analysis is very interesting.

This chart is derived by taking two bands of bitcoin prices.

- A resistance price above the current price

- A support price below the current price

These resistance and support bands were derived by taking a linear regression of the historical bitcoin price to derive a “power law”. This power law is just a straight line to represent the correlation between bitcoin’s price and time. This line is then perfectly copied (including its slope) twice. With these two new lines:

- One is lowered such that the historical bitcoin price is always equal to or greater than the prices hitting that line - the support line.

- One is raised such that the historical bitcoin price is always equal to or less than the prices hitting that line - the resistance line.

Ethereum Price Chart

The second cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, is in a zone of definition, since after the recovery of recent weeks, if it does not manage to exceed the 3550 USD zone, it could look for new bottoms, at least ascending ones to attack the mentioned zone.?

Big rise since October 2023. Digesting it, is what it seems, Ethereum, to be doing.

At the moment and in conjunction with the general FGI of the crypto market, it could have found a very short-term resistance zone and now its objective would be to find relevant supports, in areas of 3270/60 USD, a priori.

If it continues to rise, 3700 USD appears to be a new zone of control.

Legal warning: This content is for informational and educational purposes. There is no consumer protection. Your capital is subject to risks. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset or crypto asset. Please do your own research (DYOR) or contact your trusted financial advisor.