Maritime Interception! The U.S. Takes Action Against Iran's Oil Exports

ⅠTrump's "Maximum Pressure" Escalates: From Sanctions to Maritime Interception

The Trump administration is considering an aggressive plan to intercept and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea under the guise of "preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction." According to multiple sources cited by Reuters, the move aims to cut off Iran's oil export lifeline, reducing its crude oil exports to zero and thereby forcing Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.

Since the beginning of Trump's second term, the U.S. has launched two rounds of new sanctions against Iran:

First Round (February 6): Sanctions were imposed on three crude oil tankers (including one VLCC and two Aframax) and related entities.

Second Round (February 24): The scope of the sanctions expanded to over 30 individuals and 13 vessels, including five VLCCs, three Aframax, and one Panamax tanker. This round of sanctions extended from the upper echelons of the oil industry to overseas brokers and fleets, marking a continued escalation of Trump's "maximum pressure" policy against Iran. The sanctions targeted the "shadow fleet" (old tankers not insured by Western insurers) and related companies. However, similar measures by the Biden administration had limited success—Iran still earned US$53 billion in oil revenues in 2023 through complex smuggling networks. Now, the Trump team is attempting to join forces with allies to set up checkpoints in strategic waterways to move sanctions from "paper" to "practice."

Ⅱ Multinational Interception Mechanism Emerges—The Strait of Malacca in Focus

According to disclosures, the U.S. plans to rely on the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), launched in 2003, to implement interceptions in strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca in Asia. The PSI, led by the U.S. and signed by over 100 countries, allows member states to search suspicious vessels if there is a "reasonable suspicion of transporting prohibited weapons." By delaying delivery times and increasing trade uncertainty, this move aims to strike at Iran's oil supply chain.

Shipowners, buyers, insurers, and other stakeholders may face reputational risks and secondary sanctions, leading to a surge in transaction costs. Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said, "Using the PSI to curb Iran's oil exports is entirely justified," as oil revenues "directly fund Iran's nuclear proliferation and terrorism."

Impact on Ports and the Maritime Supply Chain

Strait of Malacca and Surrounding Ports (Singapore Port, Port Klang, Malaysia): According to Caixin on March 6, U.S. government officials are studying the possibility of having allies intercept and inspect Iranian oil tankers passing through maritime chokepoints, including the Strait of Malacca. The Strait of Malacca is a crucial route for about 30% of the world's crude oil transportation. If the U.S. intercepts Iranian tankers here, it will lead to significant delays or rerouting of many tankers. Singapore Port, as the world's largest bunkering and transshipment hub, may face congestion and a decline in logistics efficiency.

Strait of Hormuz and Middle Eastern Ports (Fujairah Port, UAE, and Bandar Abbas Port, Iran): The Strait of Hormuz is the core channel for Iran's oil exports. If intercepted, Iran's crude oil exports will be directly hindered. Fujairah Port in the UAE, an important oil storage and transshipment center in the Middle East, may become a transit point for Iran's "shadow trade" to evade sanctions but also faces the risk of an expanded U.S. sanctions net.

Ⅲ Iran's Forceful Retaliation: Historical Lessons and Current Threats

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly accused the U.S. on March 2 of "seizing several Iranian oil tankers, causing delays in unloading," and imposing sanctions on many ships at sea, leaving them uncertain about how to offload their oil and gas cargoes. He hinted that Iran might have already taken countermeasures.

Historical experience shows that the U.S.-Iran maritime confrontation is highly prone to escalation. For example, in 2023, after the Biden administration intercepted Iranian oil tankers, Iran retaliated by seizing several foreign vessels (including a tanker chartered by Chevron), causing a spike in international oil prices. If the U.S. escalates its actions, Iran may blockade the Strait of Hormuz or attack allied tankers, leading to a severe shock to the global energy market.

Ⅳ Low Oil Price Window: Why the U.S. Is "Drawing the Sword" Now

Ben Cahill, an energy analyst at the University of Texas, pointed out that the current low oil price environment (below US$75 per barrel) provides the U.S. with room for action. "If prices remain below US$75 per barrel, the White House will have more leeway to consider sanctions that affect oil supplies from Iran and other countries. It would be much more difficult in a US$92 per barrel environment," he said. He indicated that the U.S.'s aggressive actions might reduce Iran's exports by about 750,000 barrels per day in the short term, but the long-term effectiveness is questionable as Iran and buyers will find ways to circumvent the sanctions.

Short-term Effect: Aggressive sanctions may reduce Iran's exports by 750,000 barrels per day, but the long-term efficacy is doubtful (Iran and buyers will seek new ways to evade sanctions).

Alternative Solutions: The U.S. is pressuring Iraq to restart Kurdish regional oil exports to fill the gap left by Iran. If negotiations fail, Iraq may face sanctions alongside Iran.

Ⅴ How to Break the Deadlock? The Global Energy Order Faces Restructuring

European Contradictions: Although Nordic countries have warned of the environmental risks posed by "high-risk vessels" near their coasts, Europe has been slow to act on inspecting Russian oil tankers and is even less inclined to get involved in the Iranian issue. Iran relies on oil exports to China for vital revenue. Russia, which also faces restrictions on oil exports and broader Western sanctions, is similarly focused on shipping oil to buyers in China and India. Finland and other Nordic countries have repeatedly warned of the dangers of ships sailing close to their shores and the environmental risks of oil spills in the event of accidents.

China's Key Role: As the largest buyer of Iranian oil (accounting for over 90% of its export revenue), China's stance will directly affect the effectiveness of the sanctions. According to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, despite years of U.S. sanctions, Tehran's oil exports generated US$53 billion in revenue in 2023 and US$54 billion the previous year, largely due to trade with China. Whether the U.S. can exert pressure remains to be seen.

Ⅵ Conclusion: Every Tanker Is a Geopolitical Chip!

As the U.S. targets oil tankers sailing in international waters with sanctions, the global shipping industry is being pushed to the front line of geopolitical confrontation. The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) has warned that if the U.S. and Iran engage in a tanker seizure battle in the Gulf of Oman, the global benchmark tanker index (BDTI) could soar by 200% in a single day. Every VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) crossing the conflict zone could become a living case for rewriting the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. This maritime confrontation reveals a harsh reality: In the 21st-century energy power struggle, the endpoint is not in the oil fields but in the maritime trajectories of every drop of crude oil shipped across the oceans.