THE MARINE WORLD 2030

Global Marine Trends 2030 (GMT2030) demonstrates that the shape of the marine world in 2030 will depend on the interactions between people, economies and natural resources. Using publicly available and proprietary information, and a scenario development methodology, GMT2030 envisions three possible scenarios, namely Status Quo, Global Commons, and Competing Nations. These three scenarios were shown to have different impacts on individual marine sectors. The commercial sector is influenced by economy, people and natural resources, while the energy sector is influenced by economy and natural resources. In the naval sector, we find that the primary driver is economic power. In all cases, the marine industry will see growth, and will play expanding and positive roles in international seaborne trade and the global economy. We have decided to focus on three scenarios separated by degrees of global political cooperation. At global and local levels, the interaction between people is at the heart of business and the economy. The GMT2030 Report led us to conduct the Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030 (GMFT2030) study which uses a similar scenario-planning methodology and similar principles. GMFT2030’s central objective is to unravel the landscape of fuels used by commercial shipping over the next 16 years. The problem has many dimensions: a fuel needs to be available, cost-effective, compatible with existing and future technology, and compliant with current and future environmental requirements. The future of the marine industry itself is irrevocably linked with the global economic, social and political landscape of 2030, which in turn drives future marine fuel demands. The marine world in 2030 will see intense competition for access to resources to power economic growth akin to a competing nations scenario. In a competing nations scenario, it will be difficult to forge agreement on many issues, leading to regulatory fragmentation, rise in protectionism and potential conflict. It will be difficult to provide a concerted international response to environmental and humanitarian disaster. Sophisticated and affordable technologies will help us to meet some of these challenges. 

This Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 (GMTT2030) Report represents our look towards the future of technology. Technology trends are not isolated. They are intimately intertwined with societal trends, sustainable-resource exploitation, jobs, wealth, peace and war. Technology touches everyone in the modern world. It is at the heart of a nation’s and company’s competitiveness, driving business performance, and enriching people’s lives like never before. 

GMTT2030 examines a range of technologies with the potential to transform the marine domain in the next 15 years. Technology changes quickly and so do economic and political circumstances. In GMTT2030, we adopted a horizon scanning methodology which led to one being comfortable about a solution or path that is associated with three factors underpinning any future, namely uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity. In GMTT2030, three important messages are apparent. Firstly, there are strong opportunities for growth in the commercial shipping, ocean space, and naval sectors in the future if businesses can harness the scientific and industrial capabilities required to take advantage of the technologies and innovation identified. Secondly, the commercial shipping, ocean space, and naval sectors will undergo a rapid transformation as competition intensifies and technologies mature in other sectors. Thirdly, there continues to be a critical need for a stable, coherent framework of regulation and support, so that the private sector has the confidence to invest.

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