March 25am, FX/S&P/BTC Commentar
Euro-1.1320. Nothing new to say. $Yen and EurJpy tried hard Friday to break their key support levels at 124 and 110, but the days range was already 2-3x what the average daily ranges were to get any kind of follow through. The Euro tried hard distributing below 1.1300, but again, the days range was over 100% of the average. The left hand chart is the daily EurJpy. The two, lowest white lines are at 124 and 123.40. Resistance lies at 125.00. IF, EurJpy is going lower, 125 has to hold and then want to see prices roll over to the downside. $Yen is treading water right around the 110 level, but it looks as though there will be a test of 109 soon. The average weekly range in $Yen is 128 point and in EurJpy, it's 190, so there are a lot of pips to be found this week, especially in EurJpy. For today, there is minor resistance at 1.1325 in the Euro and then Friday's mid at 1.1333. Today's mid is 1.1307, so a move above 33 should have follow through, but, I'm still a Euro bear and look for rallies to be sold into. R1 resistance comes in at 1.1371 and today's range is only 54% of the 10-day average so there is room to move. Day trading Stg, $Yen and EurJpy can be rewarding as that's where all the movement is, but bigger picture just too clouded although I am bullish $Yen in the much bigger picture.
S&P-2805. The right hand chart is the daily. The green and red lines on the bottom are the 10-day rolling averages with the green one weighted on most recent days. Can see ranges explode higher on the sell-offs in Feb of 2018, April of 2018, Oct 2018 and then Dec 2018. In all four cases, the spike higher in the average ranges averages 70 points or so. Can see on the uptrend to new highs last year and from the low in Dec, ranges contract and fall to the 20 level. Ranges have just started to pick up in the past few days. Is this the start of a bigger move lower? I'm not so sure. 2780 is still good support. If the market can trade sideways, above 2780, then I expect a base to form and a move to new all time highs in the May to June period. Below 2780, then look for a drop to 2700/2680. The selling that started last October was from the 2870/90 zone, so that area will be good resistance.
BTC-3960. Rallies are running into selling interest at 4k and above but the sell-off are coming in shallower. Support comes in at 3920/10 and then key at 3850. Can buy weakness in here with stops below 3850. Still need a print of 4250 to confirm a break higher so tough buying into resistance unless trading momentum with a tight stop.