Mar 6 am, FX/S&P/BTC Commentary
Euro-1.1305. The left hand chart are the weeklies for the Eur on top, EurJpy in the middle and $Yen on bottom. Euro clearly in a range(the entire world knows that) but on the back of a strong dollar story, I expect the Euro to break down and reach the lows of April 2017 and lows of late 2016 around 1.06 to 1.05. The last time the average weekly ranges were this low was in August of 2015 when the Euro was trading around 1.35. The Euro then started a steep decline to 1.05 by March of 2016 accompanied by a large expansion in the average daily and weekly ranges. I suspect something similar this time although I don't think we drop 30 big figures, more like 7 to 8. Sticking with the strong dollar story, $Yen should follow through to 114.00 which is a big low volume level but it should break for follow through to 118. The wild card is EurJpy. $Yen should be driver in pulling EurJpy higher to 129.30/130. There is a bearish TD line on the weeklies at 129.30 which will be tough to break, but above that 130 should be taken out for a move to 133.50 to 134. Seems the Euro and $Yen take turns in leading the cross so patterns could change and the Euro could drag the cross lower, but for now, look for higher prices in the bigger picture. For today, the Euro is only at 33% of it's 10-day average daily range so there is room to move. It's tough selling into the hole as weakness brings out the strong hands but my bias is lower. Resistance lies at 1.1310 and then stronger at 1.1325/30. Can sell an early morning bounce at 20+ with stops at 35. Look for the pattern to continue for new lows into the NYK close. Above 35 wouldn't be bullish it would just suggest shorts are squaring and/or being squeezed. Support comes in at 1.1280. Look for a test of that later.
S&P-2790. The market is in a sideways corrective pattern. This is eventually bullish. Near term support that has to hold is 2740. As long as consolidating above that, 2820 will be taken out but then the key level is 2870. This is where the selling really began last October so that level means a lot to somebody--somebody meaning the collective market. I still expect all time new high by April to June period and then we could see a much bigger correction but take one day at a time. The key level in the bigger picture to hold is 2680. Below that, I'll suspend my bullish call.
BTC-3850. The far right hand chart is the point and figure. I'm not much into slanted straight lines as I prefer horizontal straight lines, but there is good one just above 4000. However, to really say the market has broken higher, the green, dashed horizontal line needs to deal. A print of that suggests a low is in. However, there are a lot of resistance levels to get above. Support at 3680 has to hold for any near bullish bias. Below 3680 wouldn't be bearish in the bigger picture, it would just suggest weakness towards the lower end of the range.