Mapping the Global Flow: Trends in Canadian Education's International Appeal by Source Region

In this edition of Data Dive, we're again exploring the dynamic landscape of international student visas to Canada. We always look at the top countries, but for this edition of the newsletter let's delve into the top regions that contribute to the rich tapestry of Canada's international student body and see what trends emerge.

Key Source Regions for Canadian Institutions in 2023

(Country, Visa approvals, Proportion of total visa approvals, Visa Approval%)

• India, 212081, 48%, 73%
• Africa, 81334, 19%, 33%
• South Asia, 27913, 6%, 52%
• Latin America (including Caribbean), 25756, 6%, 74%
• ASEAN, 24259, 6%, 64%
• China+, 23386, 5%, 81%

India's is the Leader in Student Visas. Is Africa Poised to Challenge the Status Quo?

With an in-depth review of the 2023 visa approval data by country, it emerges that Nigeria holds the position of the second-largest source of visa approvals for Canada, although the numbers are relatively modest compared to India's leading figures at roughly one-tenth of those from India, highlighting India's predominant status in this arena.

However, when examining regional contributions, the narrative shifts a little. While India undoubtedly maintains a considerable lead, with a 48% share of the total visa approvals for Canada in 2023 and a commendable 73% success rate, the African continent collectively follows with a notable 19% share and a 33% approval rate. This regional perspective offers a more nuanced understanding; the predominance of India, though substantial, is not as all-encompassing as one might perceive at a cursory glance. Visa approvals from Africa have grown at an astounding 800% from 2017 to 2023. Significant portion of this notable increase in visa approvals can be attributed to students from Francophone Africa. The potential for growth extends to English-speaking countries within the continent as well. Reflect upon the remarkable increase in visa approvals from 2017 to 2023: Ghana has witnessed a twentyfold increase, Algeria a thirteenfold increase, Guinea a twenty-sevenfold increase, and Cameroon a tenfold increase. These figures not only represent a burgeoning trend but also spotlight the vast potential of the African continent as a fertile ground for future educational collaboration with Canada.

It's worth noting that comparing a single country to an entire continent like Africa—which boasts a rich tapestry of diverse nations—can oversimplify the story. Yet, this comparison serves to emphasize that India's influence, while significant, is part of a broader, more diverse international education landscape in Canada.

Other notable contributing regions include South Asia (excluding India) at 6% and a 52% approval rate (mostly thanks to Nepal), Latin America (including the Caribbean) also at 6% but with a higher 74% approval rate, ASEAN and China+ each making up 6% and 5% of the pie, respectively, with approval rates of 64% and 81%.

Trends in Visa Approvals and approval rates 2017-2023

East Asia

• The region includes Japan and S.Korea. While S.Korea has almost halved in this time period, Japan has grown marginally. Visa approvals have decreased overall by about 26.6% from 11,051 in 2017 to 8,105 in 2023.
• The approval rate has remained stable, with a variation within a narrow range of 97% to 98%, showing a high and consistent acceptance rate.

South Asia (excluding India)

• Region includes Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Afghanistan
• There has been a tremendous increase of 761% in visa approvals from 2017 (3,253) to 2023 (27,913). Nepal has grown 62x from 2017-2023 owing to the surging interest for Canada in the market and the challenges Nepali students faced getting visas for Australia. Sri Lanka has grown 10x and Pakistan is surging in the recent years too.
• The approval rate has also increased significantly from 32% to 52%, indicating a 20 percentage points improvement.

Middle East

• Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey are the major countries in this region.
• Visa approvals have seen an overall increase of about 63% from 7,437 in 2017 to 12,196 in 2023. Iran has grown 2.5x, Jordan 3x, Turkey has grown by about 30%, Saudi Arabia is down more than 90% (although that might change soon with the opening of KSA for Canadian institutions).
• The visa approval rate has had some variability, but comparing the start and end of the period, there’s a decrease of 18 percentage points, from 64% in 2017 to 46% in 2023 owing to growth in markets with lower approval rates like Jordan and Iran and decline of KSA.

India

• The number of visa approvals increased by about 201% from 70,474 in 2017 to 212,081 in 2023. This remains the largest country for visa approvals for Canada.
• The approval rate saw an increase of about 6 percentage points from 67% in 2017 to 73% in 2023. Specifically, the approval rate in 2023 spikes notably, suggesting a substantial change possibly in the application quality or selection criteria.

China+

• China and HK are the major players in this region. China's numbers have decreased, but HK's have increased substantially from 2017-2023 (but down in 2023 as compared to 2022 owing to the winding down of the lifeboat scheme)
• Overall there has been a slight decrease in visa approvals by about 7% from 22,667 in 2017 to 24,259 in 2023.
• Overall, there has been a gradual decline in the approval rate. The approval rate decreased by about 6 percentage points, from 87% in 2017 to 81% in 2023.

Africa

• This is a vast region with large English speaking source countries like Nigeria and Ghana and is the largest source region for francophone institutions in addition to France. Nigeria is the largest country in this region for visa approvals, followed by Algeria, Ghana, Cameroon and Morocco. Higher interest in Canada in english speaking countries along with the SDS push in francophone countries are likely contributing factors in this growth.
• Visa approvals increased remarkably by about 7x from 10,392 in 2017 to 81,334 in 2023. There is an overall upward trend in the number of visa approvals, with a steep rise in the last couple of years.
• The approval rate also shows an increasing trend, indicating a greater proportion of successful applications. The approval rate improved by 7 percentage points, from 26% in 2017 to 33% in 2023. The increase in visa approval increase is much

ASEAN

• The Philippines and Vietnam are the major countries in this region. In 2017 Vietnam was much larger but has now declined to be a distant second to The Philippines (increased 13x).
• There is an increase of about 192% in visa approvals from 2017 (8,317) to 2023 (24,259).
• The approval rate decreased by 6 percentage points, from 70% in 2017 to 64% in 2023.

South America (including the Caribbean)

• Mexico, Brazil and Colombia are the largest countries in the region. From 2017 to 2023 Colombia and Mexico increased 3x, Brazil increased by some 10%. Peru, Ecuador, Jamaica, Haiti are the other major players with Peru and Ecuador being the most promising in our estimation.
• Visa approvals have doubled from 12,801 in 2017 to 25,756 in 2023.
• The approval rate remained stable at 74% from 2017 to 2023.

Region Specific Insights

• Regions with the most significant growth in approvals, Africa and South Asia (excluding India), have also seen substantial improvements in their approval rates, suggesting not just an increase in the number of applicants but also better preparation or alignment with visa requirements.
• Of course India stands out with a significant overall increase in both approvals and approval rate, highlighting a growing interest and success rate for Canadian education among Indian students.
• The Middle East shows an increase in visa approvals, but the decline in the approval rate could point to a larger number of applicants, among which a lower proportion meet the visa criteria.
• East Asia and China+ have high approval rates despite a slight decrease in the number of approvals for East Asia and a very slight decrease for China+, suggesting a sustained interest but possibly more stringent visa requirements or competition.
• ASEAN shows a positive trend in the number of approvals, but the approval rate decreases slightly, which could indicate that while more are applying, a consistent proportion are succeeding.
• South America's doubled number of approvals and stable approval rate reflect a strong and growing engagement with Canadian education.

Conclusion

In this latest 'Data Dive,' we've traversed the globe through numbers, uncovering the evolving patterns of international student visas to Canada. From India's substantial lead to Africa's rapid ascent and the promising trends across ASEAN and Latin America, it's clear that Canada's appeal as a top-tier destination for global education is strong. In these uncertainty filled times in Canadian international education space, it's important to remember the positives of the significant increases in both visa approvals and approval rates in diverse regions that Canada has witnessed. There remain significant opportunities for educational institutions to further diversify and enrich their campuses. As we move forward, let's keep an eye on these trends and the stories they tell about the aspirations and potentials of students around the world seeking to make Canada their academic home.