Many Races in Arizona Still Too Close to Call—but Trending Red

In addition to the Presidential and U.S. Senate races at the top of the ballot, all 90 seats of the Arizona Legislature were up for election (no staggered terms in state legislative races), and 13 propositions, including a measure on reproductive rights for women, were on the ballot.??

As a result, voter turnout was expected to be high with a significant number of non-traditional voters motivated by the high-profile nature of the Presidential Election and the presence of the reproductive rights proposition. As of Thursday afternoon, November 7, voter turnout in Arizona had increased to 57.72% with 97% of precincts reporting. The total expected turnout is approximately 2.5 million votes.? ?

According to the Arizona Republic, ballot counting is expected to take 10 to 13 days. The Arizona Mirror is reporting that the two-page ballot in Maricopa County is taking longer to process than anticipated, thus increasing the delay in tabulating votes. Maricopa County estimates there are 450,000 early ballots still to process, not including provisional ballots. The statewide total of uncounted ballots as of November 8 is 758,409, per the Secretary of State’s Office.? ?

Statewide Races?

While the Trump/Vance ticket is currently up 52.6% to 46.5% over Harris/Walz, those coattails did not appear to work for U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake (R), as she trails Congressman Ruben Gallego (D) by 39,676 votes for the open US Senate seat.??

These themes appear to be repeated in several swing legislative districts.?

Arizona State Senate? ?

Most notably in Legislative District 4 (home to Mesa, Tempe, and Arizona State University), with the additional votes counted, Republican challenger Carine Werner overcame a 38-vote deficit to move into a 3,710-vote lead over incumbent State Senator Christine Marsh (D). Democrats need to hold on to this seat to force a 15 – 15 Senate. If this trend continues, Republicans will again control the Senate with a 16-14 majority, if not larger (see below).? ?

In Legislative District 17 (Tucson), Democrat John McLean continues to have an edge over former State Senator Vince Leach (R) by 1,318 votes. However, Leach appears to have momentum, as McLean had nearly a 4,000-vote lead earlier in the vote counting process.? ?

In Legislative District 23—which, following 2020 redistricting, has a majority Latino constituency, with 62% of residents being Hispanic or Latino—incumbent State Senator Brian Fernandez (D) continues to have an edge of his Republican challenger Michelle Altherr by a 1,180-vote margin. LD 23 has been a historically Democratic district, largely relying on the Latino vote, and this race appears to be closer than it should be. It is worth noting that Rep. Michele Pena (R), an incumbent, is leading the House race in the same district.? ?

For both LD 17 and 23 it will be interesting to see if the Republican trend can continue enough to narrow those similar vote gaps in those races. If so, the Republican majority in the Senate will expand larger than initially projected.?

Arizona House of Representatives?

House Democrats and Republicans are exchanging the defeat of incumbents by each knocking off one sitting legislator from each respective party.??

• Republicans will likely gain a seat in Legislative District 16, which includes sections of Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal Counties, with the defeat of incumbent Rep. Keith Seaman (D) by challenger Chris Lopez (R), with Lopez leading Seaman by 3,912 votes.??

• Democrats are poised to gain a seat with newcomer Kevin Volk (D) potentially defeating incumbent Cory McGarr (R) with 6,764 votes separating the two candidates. Democrats used a single-shot approach to have one Democrat challenge two Republicans, thus creating an odd-man-out scenario.??

In Legislative District 4, Republican Pamela Carter is leading former Rep. Kelli Butler (D) by 1,548 votes for the second House seat, with incumbent Rep. Matt Gress (R) apparently pulling away from the pack in a large-enough margin for him to declare victory. If Carter maintains her lead, the current Republican majority in the House will shift from 31-29 to 33-27, making governance slightly easier for Republican leadership, as they will have the political luxury of two votes to spare.?

In the East Valley, Legislative District 9, which butts up against (but does not include) Phoenix on the east and Las Vegas on the west, shows Republican candidate Kylie Barber gaining ground on incumbents Rep. Seth Blattman (D) and Rep. Lorena Austin (D) in this legislative district. LD 9 is considered a competitive district.?

Congressional Races of Interest?

Despite an early lead by challenger Amish Shah (D), incumbent Congressman David Schweikert (R) is leading the race to return to Congress in the 1st Congressional District. This district remains a Republican stronghold despite the concerted efforts by Democratic candidates to face Schweikert over the last three campaign cycles.?

In contrast, Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel (D) is leading incumbent Congressman Juan Ciscomani (R) by 200 votes in a rematch from 2022 for the 6th Congressional District. This largely Southern Arizona district is heavily comprised of Democratic-leaning Pima County.?

What Voters Cared about in 2024?

On a statewide basis, according to a poll published by Noble Predictive Insights in August 2024, inflation, immigration and affordable housing were the top three issues facing Arizona. As one would suspect, there were differences in priorities among partisan affiliation:?

There were 13 ballot propositions on the statewide ballot, of which 11 were referred by the Legislature. Voters rejected seven of the 11 legislative referrals.?

Among the more notable propositions:?

• Voters enshrined reproductive rights in the Arizona Constitution with the passage of Prop. 139 (currently with 61.17% of the vote).?

• The electorate likely rejected two measures (Props. 133 and 140) relating to primary elections, one legislative referral and a separate initiative relating to “open primaries.”?

• Given the priority of immigration among voters, as noted in the polling referenced above, voters are approving Prop. 314, also known as the Secure the Border Act, with 63.04% of the present vote.