Manifestos

With the election campaign now into its second full week, and only four left to go, the ritual of scouring through political parties’ manifestos is just around the corner – potentially as early as next week for the Labour Party’s. Join Lexington's Paul Harrison OBE, Executive Director and Chair, Lexington Advisory and Stephanie Lloyd, Director as they delve into what to look for, the pitfalls the parties will be hoping to avoid, and what impact these documents might ultimately have on the overall result come 4 July. Paul was an adviser to the Conservative Party during Theresa May's ill-fated 2017 manifesto launch, so will be speaking from experience on the impact these documents can have...

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Election Manifestos – help or hindrance?

By Paul Harrison, Senior Counsel and Former Downing Street Press Secretary

Manifestos always represent a major campaign milestone. That’s for a high-minded reason – they are in effect a contract with the electorate on behalf of the winning party – as well as more prosaic ones. Tools for party management, for setting ideological direction, as a way of capturing the news agenda, manifesto publication day can also (let’s face it) pose real political peril, particularly for anyone with a significant poll lead…

Why? Well some Manifestos gain their own uncomfortable sobriquets – ‘the longest suicide note in history’ for Michael Foot’s in 1983 – and others become emblematic of a single unpopular policy. Theresa May’s proposed social care reforms, quickly branded a ‘dementia tax’ by opponents, crowded out virtually everything else she proposed in 2017. Those are examples of Manifestos which had almost exactly the opposite of their intended effect – inviting more questions than they answered.

Labour’s manifesto, we’re told, has been essentially ready for months. The Conservative equivalent wasn’t completely finished even when the election was announced. But it’s the contents that will matter – with what’s not included often every bit illustrative as what is as the major parties seek electoral dividing lines in the final weeks of the campaign.

It’s also worth remembering – as in 2010 – that when a coalition is a theoretical possibility, the manifestos of the smaller parties become the opening bid in a negotiation about a future joint programme for government. It’s likely the Liberal Democrat offering will be seen at least in part in that light – in terms of where the synergies might be with Labour.

Business will be looking for certainty about the plans of an incoming administration; the media will be looking closely at polling for signs of movement. We’ll talk about what to look for, the pitfalls the parties will be hoping to avoid, and what impact these documents might ultimately have on the overall result.

General Election Centre

Lexington has launched our General Election Centre, a dedicated web-based platform covering all the key elements of the General Election campaign. The platform puts key information at your fingertips, including:

• Mapping candidates for each constituency to show who the likely next MPs are going to be
• Providing insights into the key seats to watch to identify who the key players in Parliament will be
• Tracking opinion poll trends from the main polling organisations to measure how the campaign is progressing and the likely result
• Monitoring policy announcements to ensure clients are up to date on the priorities of the incoming Government

Lexington’s expert team is analysing all the latest election developments, and that insight underpins everything on the platform, which will be constantly updated throughout the General Election campaign.

Lexington’s General Election Centre is built using our proprietary engagement and stakeholder management tool, LexConnect.

If you are not an existing client of Lexington and would like to purchase a subscription to the General Election Centre or talk about it in more detail, please get in touch with us direct at generalelection@lexcomm.co.uk.

Navigating the first 100 days

Lexington Advisory is a highly cohesive team composed of former Downing Street advisers, Labour experts, senior diplomats, and newspaper journalists – all of whom have, as consultants, helped CEOs and Boards successfully work through their most testing times.

Our bespoke offer is designed to:

• Deconstruct the specific political context your business now faces with experts – differentiating between noise and the developments that matter.
• Decode how Government operates in a period of change – and how decisions get made.
• Map the impact of change on your business – with tailored strategic advice on achieving your objectives.
• As needed, put together a detailed programme of how to map and manage risk.

Our Advisory Team would engage directly with to conduct:

• A wargaming session during the election designed specifically for you, covering the likely political outcomes and how that shapes the outlook for your business.
• A follow-up session after the election when outcomes are more certain – surveying the course of the Parliament ahead.
• Preparation of an opportunity and risk paper to inform business planning.

Webinar Recap – Changing the Guard

Over 130 MPs are standing down from Parliament this election, a significant increase from the average of 85 that we have seen since 1979. While many seats are likely to change hands, regardless of who forms the next Government, it's likely that there are going to be hundreds of first-time MPs after the General Election.

During our Webinar on Thursday, Lexington Senior Counsel Simon Burton OBE and Director Stephanie Lloyd explored the reason behind this especially large churn, and what this means for engaging with the next Parliament.

MPs standing down, in numbers;

• 22 current or former Secretaries of State
• 10 Select Committee Chairs
• 2 Deputy Speakers

Why are so many MPs standing down?

This Parliament was a particularly exhausting one. Those long evenings of debate on Brexit, and navigating the country through a pandemic. We also saw great turbulence through having three different Prime Ministers in a year in 2022.

Being a Member of Parliament is of course a job with a huge amount of scrutiny placed on an individual, without even mentioning the worrying increase we have seen in recent years relating to online abuse and threats made against our elected officials.

Put simply, this group of MPs are exhausted and the election proves an opportunity for many to retire or go on to other ventures. In addition to this, the clear Labour lead in the polls and boundary changes made it easy for Conservatives to seek opportunities beyond the green benches.

What does this mean for the next Parliament?

The incoming Parliament will be full of newbies, people who have never experienced being an MP before and must be brought up to speed on the procedures and formalities that go along with their new gig. MPs will be keen from day one to repay their electorate and demonstrate that they are working for the area they represent.

Now is the time to map out and understand the policy interests of the new intake, and thus engagement must be focused on the issues that matter to them. A good indication of this will be communicated through their campaign materials, website, or often maiden speech in the Commons.

This new Parliament also represents a turn in the page for our legislative agenda. It is the first time in several years that Parliament is not tied up with major issues disrupting the legislative agenda (Brexit, Covid, PM turnover). Therefore, the new Parliament will have greater capacity to get things done in a way we have not seen in some time.