This week I am writing from the United States where I am visiting New York, Washington DC and Los Angeles to discuss geopolitics and business with a wide range of people in government, industry and finance.
So far, quite understandably, most people I have spoken with have been particularly focused less on the outside world and more on the upcoming US election — and grappling with what it means for business, the country and the world.
There are certainly a wide range of opinions about who is likeliest to win and what the implications would be, which I will attempt to summarise in a forthcoming newsletter, in what will undoubtedly be a highly consequential election.
For what it's worth, in the words of Vladimir Putin — who won Russia’s presidential election with a post-Soviet record margin — the world was laughing at the “catastrophic” choice between Trump and Biden.
Speaking of mutual assured destruction, I would encourage you to read our lead essay this week on nuclear weapons and geopolitics, which covers both the essential and perennial challenges pertaining to nukes as well as their more modern manifestations — including Putin’s equally "catastrophic" recent threats to use nuclear weapons if Russia’s sovereignty was threatened and new nuclear space weapons.
But if madness is not your thing, you can instead read what I hope you find to be our sober analysis from our twenty-five stories on geopolitics and business that we published last week, summarised in the digest below.
- Russia: Vladimir Putin had won 87.8% on a 74% turnout in Russia’s election, exit polls showed Sunday. Putin brushed aside criticism, saying the world was laughing at the US's own "catastrophic" election choice between Trump and Biden. Analysis.
- Ukraine, United States: House Speaker Mike Johnson told Politico Thursday he anticipated using the suspension calendar to pass a Ukraine bill with Democrat votes. Johnson told senators Wednesday the bill could be in the form of a loan or lend-lease program. Analysis.
- France, Germany, Poland: France's Emmanuel Macron and Poland's Donald Tusk met Olaf Scholz in Germany Friday for talks on Ukraine and the first meeting of the 'Weimar Triangle'. Macron said Thursday Europe's credibility would be "zero" if Russia won the war. Analysis.
- Netherlands: Geert Wilders said Wednesday he would forego the premiership if it allowed his party to form government four months after coming first in national elections. Broadcaster NOS said a technocratic cabinet may also be formed as a fall-back. Analysis.
- Gibraltar: Britain's Europe minister, Leo Docherty, said Wednesday the UK would not compromise Gibraltar's sovereignty following a visit to the territory. Docherty had earlier told MPs Gibraltar could fall under the Schengen Area pending EU talks. Analysis.
- Spain: Catalonia's government called snap elections Wednesday after the region's parliament rejected its budget. Spain's parliament is expected to pass an amnesty bill for Catalan separatists later this month. Protests were held on Saturday. Analysis.
- France: French and Corsican officials agreed Tuesday to constitutional wording that could grant autonomy to the island. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said despite the step there would still be "no separation between Corsica and the Republic”. Analysis.
- The Balkans: Brussels recommended EU membership talks begin for Bosnia-Herzegovina Tuesday. Washington said it expects a greater risk of violence in the Balkans this year. The State Department said it would send a senior official to the region. Analysis.
- Bulgaria: Talks continued Tuesday on a new coalition, following last week's resignation of Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said she was optimistic Bulgaria would join the Eurozone next year as planned. Analysis.
- Ukraine, Russia: Ukrainian drones damaged a Russian refinery Tuesday as Moscow said it had killed 234 fighters attempting a border raid. The US announced $300 million in emergency aid as Congress was criticised over a stalled $60 billion package. Analysis.
Geopolitical Strategy is the advisory firm behind Geopolitical Dispatch. Our partners are former diplomats with vast experience in international affairs, risk management, and public affairs. We help businesses and investors to understand geopolitical developments and their impacts with clarity and concision.
- Israel, Lebanon: Israel would proceed with plans to attack Rafah, Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday, as the IDF fired on Gaza's al-Shifa hospital. A French border proposal could end hostilities with Israel, a leaked Lebanese document suggested Friday. Analysis.
- Egypt, Europe: The EU pledged €7.4 billion and a "strategic partnership" with Egypt Sunday as part of a deal to control migration and shore up Cairo's mediation efforts in Gaza. Dozens were arrested Friday after rare protests broke out in Alexandria. Analysis.
- Turkey, Iraq: Police detained 50 at Kurdish new year celebrations in Istanbul Sunday. A pro-Kurdish politician accused President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of equating Kurds with terrorists Friday, as parties campaigned for local elections on 31 March. Analysis.
- Israel, United States: Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called on Israel to hold elections, as Benjamin Netanyahu “no longer fits the needs of Israel”, which “cannot survive if it becomes a pariah”. Israel hit back at US attempts to “overthrow” the government. Analysis.
- Russia, China, Iran: Joint drills began Tuesday between the Russian, Chinese and Iranian navies. The BRICS announced plans to build a blockchain-based payments system. Russia's rail network reported a 40% rise in cargo bids following Red Sea attacks. Analysis.
- Israel, Palestine: Ramadan began Monday, with the crescent moon seen over Mecca Sunday night. Israel said it was investigating whether top Hamas official Marwan Issa had been killed. Benjamin Netanyahu said US criticism encouraged Hamas. Analysis.
- Sahel: Niger's military junta revoked its agreement with the US Saturday, in an alleged response to State Department pressure on the sale of uranium to Iran. Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso last week agreed to form a new anti-jihadist joint force. Analysis.
- Yemen: Russian media Thursday said Yemen's Houthis had successfully tested a hypersonic missile. The group's leader said ships navigating the Cape of Good Hope would now be in reach. The US said it had destroyed several drone systems. Analysis.
- Angola: President Joao Lourenco will visit China on Thursday. Angola last week was given approval for the EU's first sustainable investment facilitation agreement. The deal follows a range of announcements made with the US in January. Analysis.
- Senegal: Opposition figure Karim Wade, the son of a former president, asked the courts to delay Senegal's rescheduled election on 24 March, due to limited preparation time. Wade and other key opposition leaders have been barred from running. Analysis.
Emailed each weekday at 5am Eastern (9am GMT), Geopolitical Dispatch goes beyond the news to outline the implications. With the brevity of a media digest, but the depth of an intelligence assessment, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you the strategic framing and situational awareness to stay ahead in a changing world.
- Haiti: Florida’s governor mobilised 250 state troops amid "the possibility of invasion" by Haitian migrants. Britain announced additional security support for its Turks and Caicos territory. Canada and the UN followed the US in evacuating staff. Analysis.
- Haiti: Regional leaders met in Jamaica Monday, with the US pledging an extra $100 million to a multinational mission in Haiti and $33 million in aid. The US evacuated embassy staff Sunday. The prime minister resigned pending a “transition”. Analysis.
- United States: The House of Representatives passed a bill Wednesday to force ByteDance to divest from TikTok. Britain’s arts minister said Wednesday the government would bring a bill to ban foreign state ownership of newspapers and magazines. Analysis.
- Argentina: Argentina's central bank cut its benchmark rate from 100% to 80% Monday, surprising markets. Monthly inflation fell to 13.2% Tuesday, a fall from 20.6% in January and 25.5% in December. Buenos Aires announced a $65 billion bond swap. Analysis.
- United States, China: Congress will vote Wednesday on whether to force TikTok's parent to sell the app or face a ban. Joe Biden said Friday he would sign any such bill that reaches his desk. Donald Trump warned against a ban, saying it would only help Meta. Analysis.
You can read all of our stories in full and have them land in your email inbox by subscribing to Geopolitical Dispatch.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the only daily briefing of its kind. Based on the US President’s Daily Brief, our analysis is concise, informed and relevant. It’s a one-stop-shop for international news that actually matters to business - all with the brevity of a media digest, but the depth of an intelligence assessment.
Geopolitical Dispatch is written by a team of experienced former diplomats from Geopolitical Strategy, the advisory form. We help readers make better decisions by explaining geopolitical developments and their business impacts.
- 25 analyses of geopolitical developments weekly.
- A Saturday newsletter on a hot topic in geopolitics.
- Content-rich but easily digestible assessments of the issues that matter, going beyond the news to outline the implications.
