Manhattan Net Inventory is Positive for First Time This Year

April saw a slowdown in both new contract signings and new listings when compared with March. Some of this can be explained by the holidays- which historically always lead to a decrease in deal volume and new listings.

However, there wasn't as strong a bounce back the following weeks as we like to see this time of year.

If you're a buyer and you are wondering why this market still seems so competitive it is because both weekly contract activity and weekly new listings are down which is sustaining pricing. As long as both supply and demand continue to move in tandem, pricing will remain relatively strong.

We should know in the next month which part (if any) of the curve will pop. My guess is supply. Although weekly new inventory is down historically, we are seeing signs of a shortened peak selling season which will push total supply higher.

Right now, the main driver of this market is scarcity, if that disappears- pricing leverage should shift to buyers.

Although monthly new supply is down year over year, total supply on the market is actually up slightly. This means that there is less absorption in the market right now and some inventory is sitting.

For the first time this year, and the first time since October 22 net inventory was positive last month.

That means that new listings surpassed the number of contract signings, and inventory removed from the market.

I expect this trend to continue as it looks like we are seeing a contracted selling season. This month will be telling, and if we can keep weekly contract signings above 250 and weekly new listings above 500 then this tight market will continue.

Recent contract signing data is not trending in the right direction. We haven't had great weather, perhaps, with some more sun things will turn around in the next week or two.