Managing the unpredictable – a strategist’s nightmare

The Silverstone Grand Prix weekend is not just another Formula 1 race, it is one of the biggest tests a car can be put through, with 18 corners and an average lap speed around 160mph it is one of the quickest circuits in the calendar and certainly keeps drivers on their toes as they navigate some of the most famous turns in motor racing including, Brooklands, Luffield and Woodcote.

Having been fortunate enough to go to Silverstone several times, it is truly an unimaginable and incredible assault on the senses - a combination of burning rubber, screams from a combustion engine and the swirling winds you experience from an airfield doesn’t just make the Silverstone a race, it is an immersive experience where the best in automotive brilliance come together to do battle.

One thing the British Grand Prix also offers is unpredictability and this normally comes in the form of the weather. In the last race we saw the full impact of this at the Canadian GP where the wise old head of Fernando Alonso put his Alpine on the front row of the grid next to the end race winner, Max Verstappen.

The Aston Martin team were also thrown a curve ball by the weather, having looked extremely strong in practice, Sebastian Vettel and Lance Stroll were both challenged in keeping heat in the tyres and weren’t able to get out of Q1, however Stroll was able to make his way into the points at his home circuit to recover a single point for the team.

So how does an F1 team plan for the unpredictable? Firstly, all the teams have a comprehensive strategy team whose job it is to plan for the ‘optimum strategy’ and if you follow F1 you’ll often hear is a 1-stop or 2-stop strategy the optimum. This is because there are so many variables that need to consider, from tyre degradation rate, fuel load consumption, track temperatures, wind speeds, precipitation, etc. So, the first plan that is made is based on the absolute best-case scenario, which generates a benchmark for the teams to work on.

However, what happens when there is a safety car, or you’re impeded by a slower car, or have a mechanical glitch? The reality is the strategy group must act in real-time from the car’s complex sensors, advanced weather radars and car delta, this in turn leads to developing a best-case outcome based on the available data.

Fortunately for the strategists they have this information available, however what about when they don’t have the information? Managing the unpredictable is a strategist nightmare and is often a harsh reality that many businesses face whether that’s a manufacturing company who’s supply chain fails, a construction company who’s labor pool is reducing or an energy company that faces unprecedented demand for resources. Planning for the unpredictable can often be the difference between success and failure – Formula 1 is no exception.

IFS is proud to support the Aston Martin Formula 1 Team and support them in managing the unpredictable and this weekend with a 30% chance of rain during the race on Sunday it may be needed more than planned.

Dan Talbot, Senior Manager - Industry Marketing & ABM?(and part-time IFS F1 Correspondent).