Managing in Uncertain Times
Virun Rampersad, ACTP, PCC
Certified Executive and Revenue Generation Coach
One of the things I’ve learned in my three decades of professional life is the financial markets are self-correcting entities.??They frequently over-react, then adjust, and then adjust again, buffeting organizations along the way.??2022 was the stock market’s worst year since 2008.??Rising inflation, geo-political crises, and the prospects of recession pushed many indices down by double digits, resulting in expense cuts, smaller pipelines, deferred investments, and layoffs. So, what’s in store for 2023???More of the same or a recovery? The simple truth is I have no idea. What I do know is whatever it is, we need to get through it and succeed.??
These first few days of January offer us an exploding opportunity. Sandwiched between the Year-End Crush and the New Year Kick-Off, there are often a few days to do something that can help us prepare for the challenges of a new year – scenario planning, i.e., taking a look at what could happen and assessing potential responses. This is not a part of many year-end planning and budget processes, but it can be hugely helpful. Given its speculative nature, I am a big fan of keeping the scenario planning process simple and looking at the big picture from a risk management perspective. As they say, defense wins championships. Here is one such approach.
1.?????Assess the Macro
a)?????What are the markets saying about your business and your peers in terms of stock price and credit default swap (CDS) spread trends, i.e., how are you and your industry peers perceived
b)????What are the implications of these trends in terms of winning and retaining business, as well as liquidity and access to credit, i.e., how attractive are you to clients and creditors
c)?????What are the markets is saying about your key customers and what are the implications in terms of your ability to grow and retain business, i.e., how are your target clients positioned?
2.?????Articulate the Worst
a)?????What is the worst-case market scenario for your business
b)????How much do you stand to lose
c)?????What is your response to this worst-case scenario
3.?????Define the Metrics
a)?????What are the key indicators you need to keep your eyes on
b)????Who are the key players you need to be in constant touch with
One of the challenges of this exercise is there may be different opinions on the worst-case scenario.??In this situation looking at one other scenario may be helpful, but I would resist the urge to do more.??Planning for the worst doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. Indeed, my experience is the challenges you will face are seldom the ones you plan for. However, taking a hard look at reality, boxing the worst-case scenario(s), and understanding your key indicators will help you respond to whatever comes along.
I have no doubt your organization and your business line has a plan to win in 2023. But as Mike Tyson once said, “Everyone has a plan until they get hit!”??I think he’s right.??But what’s more important than the hit is how you respond. Defense wins championships.
Happy New Year!