The Manager’s Clock: How Much Time Do Big Six Coaches Really Get?

In the high-stakes world of English Premier League football, the pressure on managers—especially those leading the "Big Six" clubs—is relentless. The question every fan, pundit, and even board member asks is: How much time should a manager be given before deciding their fate? With the recent appointment of Rúben Amorim at Manchester United , the debate has reignited. After the initial manager bounce fades, how long should we give him—or any new manager—to prove their worth?

To explore this question, I analyzed data from all managerial changes in the Premier League's Big Six clubs between the 2012/13 and 2023/24 seasons, excluding interim managers. For each manager, I calculated their cumulative win rate after each league game and compared it to their terminal win rate (i.e., the win rate at the end of their tenure). Then, I aggregated the data across all managers to identify trends and insights.

It Takes Time to Stabilize

On average, a manager’s cumulative win rate stabilizes within 5% of their terminal win rate after approximately 63 league games—or about 1.6 seasons. By this point, we can confidently predict the manager's long-term performance.

The 60% Benchmark

Despite the 63-game stabilization point, most Big Six managers are judged far earlier. The relentless demand for results means that falling below certain win rate thresholds—even temporarily—can lead to dismissal. Owners and boards may be unwilling to "trust the process" if the trajectory doesn’t look promising enough to match their ambitions. Achieving a 60% win rate seems to be the minimum requirement to maintain a long-term position at a Big Six club. Managers who fail to cross this threshold often find themselves under scrutiny.

Here are a few notable cases where managers with forced departure well before the stabilization point:

• David Moyes at Manchester United (2013/14): Despite a 50% win rate after 34 games, Moyes was sacked as fans and the board grew frustrated with the club’s performances.
• Unai Emery at Arsenal (2018/19–2019/20): Sacked after 56 games with a 46% win rate.
• Mikel Arteta at Arsenal: A fascinating exception to the rule. After a 42% win rate after his first 38 games and 49% after 76 games (two full seasons), Arteta was trusted to “ride out the storm.” Now, he boasts a 59% win rate and has Arsenal competing for the title.

Pedigree Buys Time

Managers with a strong coaching pedigree are often given more time, even when results fall below expectations.

• José Mourinho at Manchester United held on despite a 47% win rate after 38 games in his first season—a figure lower than both Moyes and Louis van Gaal at the same club. Mourinho’s reputation as a proven winner likely afforded him patience that others didn’t receive.

Implications for Rúben Amorim

If history is any guide, Amorim’s early games at Manchester United will define the perception of his tenure. While the 63-game rule of thumb suggests that patience is key, he will likely need to cross the 60% win rate threshold quickly to ensure he’s given the time to build his vision. Whether his past success at Sporting CP is enough to buy him the time Mourinho received remains to be seen.

Final Thoughts

In the Premier League, patience is a luxury that only a few managers are afforded. While data suggests that waiting for 63 games provides a reliable measure of a manager’s true performance, the pressures of managing a Big Six club mean that decisions are often made much sooner. For Amorim, the clock is already ticking.

That said, I believe Ruben Amorim has the potential to succeed at Manchester United. His track record and tactical philosophy could be exactly what the club needs during this crucial phase. As a fan of the game, I truly hope Amorim gets the time and support to implement his vision and bring success to Old Trafford. Here's wishing him all the best on this journey—United fans are rooting for you!

For those of you who are interested in diving deeper into this analysis, I’ve made the full dataset and code available on Kaggle, where you can explore further and replicate the analysis for other teams or managers. Feel free to check it out here: English Premier League 24/25.

Do you think the Big Six should give managers more time, or is the "win now" mentality here to stay? Let me know your thoughts in the comments!

Lessons from Data Collection

One of the more challenging (and admittedly tedious) parts of this project was assembling the dataset for managerial changes. Surprisingly, this data isn’t readily available in a structured format. I had to manually search for each manager’s first Premier League game in charge, their win rates, and their terminal win rates over the last 11 seasons.

For now, I’ve focused exclusively on the Premier League Big Six due to the availability of data and the managerial scrutiny these clubs face. However, it would be interesting to expand this analysis to mid-table and lower-table clubs, where the pressures and expectations might differ significantly.

Read more:

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