Making Keating’s mistake: Labor’s personal attacks are no substitute for policies

Andrew Blyth I 18 January 2025 I Spectator Australia

As the next federal election looms, Labor’s reliance on personal attacks against Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is drawing sharp criticism, not only from political opponents but also from within their own party’s ranks. A recent meme mocking Dutton’s marriage, shared by the Victorian Labor Party, epitomises this misguided strategy. The post, condemned as ‘stupid’ and ‘mean’ by senior Labor ministers including Bill Shorten and Jason Clare, was eventually taken down on belated instructions from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Yet, the incident has left a mark, exposing cracks in Labor’s message discipline and a failure to focus on substantive issues.

Despite enduring a barrage of personal attacks from Albanese and his Labor colleagues, Dutton is gaining ground in the polls. Dutton has been branded ‘a wrecker’, ‘negative’ and ‘a bully boy’ as well as ‘extreme’ and ‘lacking compassion’. In 2022, Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek even likened Dutton to ‘Voldemort’ from Harry Potter in a pointed personal jab. Plibersek offered a reluctant apology. Much like in the lead-up to the 1996 federal election, voters are starting to look beyond the insults and focus on the substance.

Paul Keating employed a similar strategy in 1996, directing his scorn at both John Howard and his deputy, Peter Costello. Keating famously described Howard as ‘the little desiccated coconut’ and ‘a dead carcass, swinging in the breeze’, while mocking his campaign with quips like, ‘Soon we will be at the stage where he will be offering us a free set of steak knives’, and referring to Howard as the Liberals’ ‘third choice leader.’ He also ridiculed Costello, calling him ‘all tip and no iceberg’ and ‘the greatest L-plater of all time.’

Howard remained focused on policy, tackling economic reform and job creation. His return to the Liberal Party leadership (in January 1995) showed him to be a seasoned, steady politician who had crafted policies promising prosperity and stability. By refusing to engage in tit-for-tat insults, Howard demonstrated maturity, and voters rewarded this substance over Keating’s personal attacks, leading to a sweeping victory. Costello would also go on to prove Keating wrong, becoming Australia’s longest-serving treasurer, delivering ten budget surpluses, paying down national debt, establishing a sovereign wealth fund, and overseeing sustained economic growth. Keating similarly underestimated much-loved Nationals leader Tim Fischer, who would go on to become a highly effective deputy prime minister and trade minister, boosting Australian exports and strengthening international trade relationships.

Labor’s playbook in handling Dutton feels like Groundhog Day. Since Dutton took over as leader of the Liberal party following the Coalition’s 2022 defeat, Labor has portrayed Dutton as unelectable, banking on his hardline immigration stance and ‘bully boy’ reputation to repel voters. But just as Keating misjudged Howard, Labor’s attacks on Dutton are falling short. As Tony Barry, a director at Redbridge (a political research firm), notes, Labor risks viewing Dutton not as a politician but as a caricature.

For all the smears, Dutton and the Coalition remain firmly in the race. The latest state-by-state analysis of Newspoll shows the major parties are evenly matched on a two-party-preferred basis as they enter the election contest. Despite being painted as ‘negative’ and ‘heartless’, Dutton’s message is slowly resonating with Australians who are increasingly frustrated with a government they see as out of touch. While Labor struggles to understand how a ‘raging right-winger’ has gained support, they overlook the fact that Dutton is addressing the core concerns of everyday Australians.

While this is Dutton’s first time leading the Opposition, the coming federal election is far from his first political battle. With decades of parliamentary experience, including winning eight elections in his marginal seat since 2001, and senior cabinet roles like Minister for Home Affairs and Defence, Dutton brings significant political acumen. His early career as a Queensland police officer and small business owner also grounds him in the realities of public service and private enterprise.

However, Dutton faces a tougher challenge than Howard did in 1996. Howard benefited from a political landscape dominated by Liberal-controlled state governments, providing him with strong momentum. Dutton, by contrast, has a more fragmented electoral map. While the Liberals hold office in Tasmania, the CLP governs in the Northern Territory, and the LNP in Queensland, the rise of the Teals – who captured key Liberal seats in the last election – adds another layer of complexity to the political landscape. Dutton not only has to reclaim lost ground but also contend with shifting political dynamics, making his path to victory more challenging than Howard’s.

Dutton’s perception as ‘cold but capable’ likely stems from the tough portfolios he has held, particularly in immigration and national security. These roles required a firm hand, shaping his television persona. However, those who know Dutton personally – including long-time staff – describe him as calm, modest, and possessing a self-deprecating sense of humour. Contrary to public perception, many who know him believe he is someone most Australians would enjoy having a beer with.

Labor’s personal attacks on Dutton reveal their failure to fully understand their opponent. Their aggressive tribalism, honed in factional battles, translates into a confrontational approach that often misses the mark with uncommitted voters. Figures like Clare O’Neil (from Victoria) regularly deploy this tactic, with little political gain. This brand of character assassination, steeped in party rivalry, rarely resonates with voters who care more about policies than personal vendettas.

Much like Keating in 1996, Labor today underestimates the electorate’s desire for substance over style. The party’s increasing elitism and progressive rhetoric risks alienating Australians more focused on paying their bills than on ideological purity.

Labor’s reliance on personal attacks is proving ineffective, as Australians increasingly see through the smears and focus on competence. By continuing to present himself as a leader focused on practical solutions, Dutton could follow Howard’s path, positioning himself as the serious alternative to a government voters are starting to view as weak and ineffective.

In 1996, Keating’s relentless personal attacks on Howard and Costello did not secure him victory. Instead, they revealed a leader more focused on tearing down opponents than addressing Australians’ concerns. Howard’s calm, policy-driven campaign won voters’ trust securing a record 45-seat majority.

Today, as Albanese’s government repeats the playbook of insults and personal attacks against Dutton, they risk repeating Keating’s mistake. Dutton’s resilience and focus on pragmatic, sensible policies are resonating with an electorate that are growing tired of Labor’s rhetoric after just one term. The lesson is clear: while personal attacks may grab headlines, it is policy and competence that win elections. Howard won four elections using that strategy.

Autor: Andrew Blyth

Andrew Blyth was the manager of the John Howard Prime Ministerial Library located at Old Parliament House (2016-2023).