MAKER'S MARKET DOSSIER

Issue #7: 12.29.2024

????AMUSE BOUCHE …

12.27.2024 -

Today was this year’s last Friday, if not its last trading day, making this the final experimental issue of the Maker’s Market Dossier. A few of you may have noticed that I have not published since Friday the 13th. I have been busy making improvements for the coming year, and in particular I will be pleased to create more unique content.

One such item that premieres this week is an Insider Trading report, in which I showcase how a prospector in search of short-term profit reads one of Tradingview’s lesser-known pages.

In the previous issue, it was decided to make this a weekly newsletter, however the arguments for a daily report did not go ignored, as you will see this coming Monday. Henceforth, the abbreviated MarketSQUAWK will be published weekdays except Friday, and this longer form Maker’s Market Dossier will appear on Sunday, sooner if possible..

If the workflow improves by another order of magnitude, I should be able to return to making videos, albeit somewhat less over-produced. In fact, the plan is to record all the data alchemy behind the scenes here as the writing is polished into a publishable form, which will include more extemporaneous charting and impromptu commentary on the scrolling newsflow.

Meanwhile, this week’s term of financial art is: Junk Bonds …

?? MARKET MOOD

The markets were an uneasy mix—part rally, part retreat, shaken by macroeconomic tensions and served with a garnish of geopolitical uncertainty; every sip of optimism was chased by a bitter aftertaste of caution

Equities kicked off the week with a hopeful sparkle, led by tech stocks on AI-fueled dreams. But by Friday, the party dimmed as rising Treasury yields and profit-taking threw cold water on the Magnificent Seven’s magic. Small caps, after enjoying a brief renaissance, now face the sobering reality of rising borrowing costs and stretched valuations. Retail stocks, fueled by holiday spending, are now running out of steam, hinting that consumer exuberance may have been more sugar rush than substance.

Commodities played their own enigmatic tune. Copper eked out a modest weekly gain in thin trading, as markets waited for signs of Chinese fiscal stimulus to breathe life into industrial demand. Meanwhile, energy markets kept the fires burning—crude oil held above $70, buoyed by OPEC+ supply dynamics and whispers of geopolitical disruption. Gold, the market’s perennial safe-haven, flirted with $2,700 as investors sought refuge from inflationary worries and looming recession fears.

Crypto? Always a spectacle. Bitcoin stumbled below $100K, a dramatic drop that barely fazed seasoned hodlers. Over-the-counter trading volumes soared, with institutions doubling down on altcoins like JasmyCoin, which is testing pivotal support levels for what some believe could be a breakout. It’s a world where even volatility has a swagger.

Zooming out, the macro picture remains a paradox. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish resolve continues to cloud market optimism, even as inflation shows signs of moderation. Across the Pacific, China’s latest moves—including its polysilicon futures debut and strategic decoupling from U.S. financial systems—signal a recalibration of global trade dynamics. These shifts, paired with steady BRICS momentum, underline an emerging world order that investors can no longer ignore.

But don’t take everything you read to heart – remember that I am not so far removed from FinBERT … or am I?

?? TRADE WINDS

?? ASIA In Asia, economic recovery remains uneven, driven by a blend of cautious optimism and persistent headwinds. China’s manufacturing sector showed tentative signs of improvement as industrial metals like copper gained modestly. However, geopolitical tensions, including trade frictions with the U.S. and a decoupling from Western supply chains, weigh heavily on sentiment. Meanwhile, India continues to emerge as a manufacturing hub, benefiting from geopolitical realignments and growing investment flows. Japan and South Korea are navigating mixed conditions, with robust exports of technology goods offset by slowing global demand for consumer electronics.

?? EUROPE Europe is navigating a delicate balance between economic stabilization and energy security challenges. The eurozone showed resilience in the face of high inflation, but weak consumer sentiment and sluggish industrial output remain obstacles. Natural gas markets remain volatile, with geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and supply adjustments from Russia keeping energy prices elevated. The UK, post-Brexit, is recalibrating its trade relationships, focusing on expanding ties with Asia and North America while grappling with domestic growth challenges. EU-wide green energy initiatives are gaining traction, bolstering investment in renewables but requiring substantial capital to meet ambitious targets.

?? AMERICAS In the Americas, the U.S. economy continues to drive global sentiment, with mixed economic signals from consumer resilience clashing against tighter credit conditions. Brazil is leveraging its agricultural and energy exports, benefiting from robust commodity demand. Meanwhile, Mexico’s strategic positioning as a nearshoring hub strengthens its role in global supply chains. Canada, heavily reliant on U.S. economic activity, is facing headwinds from slowing consumer and industrial demand, particularly in its housing market.

???????????????????? BRICS News Flow BRICS economies continue their push toward reducing dependency on the U.S. dollar in global trade. Notable progress includes agreements to expand local currency swap lines and deepen commodity-backed trade. China and Russia are driving efforts to create alternative payment systems, with South Africa supporting discussions on incorporating African economies into this framework. India remains focused on regional leadership, leveraging its G20 presidency to advocate for emerging market interests.

???????????????????????????? G7 News Flow G7 nations are grappling with inflationary pressures while coordinating on geopolitical strategies to counterbalance rising BRICS influence. Discussions on regulating AI technology and imposing sanctions on authoritarian regimes dominate agendas. The U.S. is balancing domestic economic concerns with its role in maintaining global stability. Europe remains focused on energy security and expanding defense budgets, particularly in response to escalating tensions with Russia.

? SECTOR SPOTLIGHT

Energy

The energy sector finds itself at a pivotal moment, caught between the weight of its legacy and the pull of its future. Traditional oil and gas companies are navigating a lackluster landscape, with crude oil prices range-bound as muted global demand growth and a slowing Chinese economy anchor the market. OPEC+ production cuts offer a lifeline but fail to spark meaningful rallies, as recession fears in developed markets hover like a thick fog. Meanwhile, natural gas markets serve up volatility on a silver platter, driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe, where energy security is as precarious as ever.

In stark contrast, renewable energy is basking in the glow of increased investor interest. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and similar policy supports globally are turbocharging capital inflows into solar, wind, and energy storage projects. ESG-aligned assets are the toast of the market, pushing renewables valuations higher while their fossil-fueled counterparts tread water. This bifurcation embodies a broader truth: hydrocarbons are still indispensable in the short term, but the long-term narrative is increasingly about the shift to cleaner energy sources.

Semiconductors

If energy is wrestling with its identity, semiconductors are striding confidently onto center stage. The sector continues to outperform, driven by insatiable demand for chips across industries and the frenzy surrounding AI technologies. Recent earnings reports have wowed investors, highlighting the sector’s resilience despite broader economic headwinds. Earlier supply chain snarls have largely eased, smoothing production and bolstering inventories, while initiatives like the CHIPS Act in the U.S. are securing the industry’s future.

But this success isn’t without its shadows. Valuations have soared, propped up by speculative fervor over AI applications. The question of sustainability looms, especially as global demand for consumer electronics—still a key driver—softens. Nonetheless, the sector remains poised to ride secular growth trends like cloud computing, autonomous vehicles, and advanced manufacturing.

Consumer Discretionary

The consumer discretionary sector is walking a tightrope this week, offering a mixed bag of resilience and strain. Holiday spending has been robust, particularly for luxury retailers, who continue to cash in on affluent shoppers splurging despite broader economic concerns. Mid-tier and budget-focused brands, however, face tougher sledding as inflationary pressures squeeze margins and cautious consumers tighten their belts. E-commerce platforms shine as holiday promotions drive digital sales, but even here, headwinds from higher interest rates threaten to slow the momentum.

The sector’s vulnerability lies in the broader economic outlook. Disposable incomes are under pressure, and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance isn’t helping. With earnings season on the horizon, investors are bracing for insights into whether the holiday cheer can sustain into the new year or if margin pressures will spoil the party.

?? RISK RADAR

This week’s risk landscape is a blend of sector rotations, inflation uncertainty, and bond market dynamics, all swirling under the weight of looming central bank decisions.

Sector rotations are painting a picture of an evolving risk profile. Tech, still the market’s darling, benefits from speculative fervor, bolstered by insider buying in key companies. Semiconductors lead the charge, with order flow data showing concentrated bullish bets as investors position ahead of upcoming earnings. However, this optimism is tempered by insider selling in consumer staples, signaling concerns about overvaluation and stretched margins. Industrials and small caps, meanwhile, continue to underperform, weighed down by recession fears and tight financial conditions.

Risk: A deepening divergence between tech and traditional sectors could exacerbate market fragility, with any negative earnings surprises in tech triggering broader volatility.

All eyes are on upcoming inflation readings from the U.S. and Eurozone, alongside the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. A 25 bps hike is already baked into market expectations, but the real drama lies in the Fed’s forward guidance. Any hawkish signals on inflation persistence could jolt investor sentiment, while a softer tone may reignite risk-on appetite.

The 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) is the market’s unofficial barometer for inflation fears. A move above 4.65% would likely signal rising anxiety over sticky inflation, pressuring growth stocks and risk assets. Conversely, a retreat below current levels could catalyze a recovery in risk sentiment.

Risk: Missteps in forward guidance could amplify volatility across equities, bonds, and currencies, with inflation surprises serving as the primary catalyst.

The yield curve continues to serve as a critical gauge of market risk, influencing both economic outlooks and portfolio strategies. The shape of the curve—whether flattening, steepening, or inverting—has profound implications for sectors and asset classes:

• Flattening Curve: Reflects tightening financial conditions, raising borrowing costs and weighing on credit-sensitive sectors like financials and small caps.
• Steepening Curve: Suggests improved growth prospects, supporting equities, especially cyclical sectors, as risk appetite grows.
• Inverted Curve: Heightens recession fears, reducing the appeal of long-duration assets like tech, while driving allocations to safe havens such as gold and Treasuries.

The curve’s impact isn’t confined to U.S. markets. Global capital flows, particularly in emerging markets, are deeply influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, with a rising curve pressuring dollar-denominated debt and increasing funding costs.

Risk: A prolonged inversion amplifies systemic vulnerabilities, signaling recession risks while compressing risk premiums across equities and high-yield debt.

?? WATCHLISTS – WEEKLY PERFORMANCE

Follow any of the links for more details and an enhanced experience.

Regional Indices, Bonds and Currency Markets

?? U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY)

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a vital financial metric measuring the dollar’s value against a fixed basket of six major currencies, reflecting its strength in global markets. Its far-reaching movements influence international trade, commodity prices, emerging markets, U.S. stock performance, cryptocurrencies and, of course, geopolitical dynamics like the BRICS Bloc’s de-dollarization efforts, making it a leading indicator of global economic trends.

• ?? DXY (US Dollar Currency Index): 108.079 USD, ▼ 0.04%, Δ -0.044 USD

. . .

?? The Asian Session

Asian stock markets possess unique characteristics that set them apart from their Western counterparts, reflecting the region’s diverse economies, regulatory environments, and cultural nuances. These markets exhibit higher volatility, rapid growth potential, and strong government influence.

?? INDICES

• ???? ASX 200: 5,128.5 USD, ▼ 0.35%, Δ -17.9 USD, Performance (1M) ▲ 5.10%, (3M) ▲ 3.00%, (YTD) ▲ 21.35%
• ???? Nikkei 225: 254.86 USD, ▲ 1.26%, Δ +3.17 USD, Performance (1M) ▲ 5.10%, (3M) ▲ 3.00%, (YTD) ▲ 21.35%
• ???? KOSPI: 1.63 USD, ▼ 1.75%, Δ -0.03 USD, Performance (1M) ▼ 4.53%, (3M) ▼ 10.09%, (YTD) ▼ 9.10%
• ???? Shanghai Composite: 465.7515 USD, ▲ 0.05%, Δ +0.2500 USD, Volume – 50.05B, Performance (1M) ▲ 4.60%, (3M) ▲ 11.51%, (YTD) ▲ 14.38%
• ???? Taiwan Weighted: 344.24 USD, ▼ 0.91%, Δ -3.18 USD
• ???? Hang Seng: 2,591 USD, ▲ 0.28%, Δ +7 USD, Volume – 8.02K, Performance (1M) ▲ 2.47%, (3M) ▼ 3.79%, (YTD) ▲ 19.43%
• ???? STI: 273.95 USD, ▲ 0.09%, Δ +0.25 USD, Volume – 2.96K, Performance (1M) ▲ 1.03%, (3M) ▲ 9.08%, (YTD) ▲ 29.45%
• ???? FTSE Bursa Malaysia: 363.73 USD, ▲ 1.30%, Δ +4.68 USD, Performance (1M) ▲ 1.67%, (3M) ▼ 2.42%, (YTD) ▲ 12.12%
• ???? Jakarta Composite: Performance (1M) ▼ 4.00%, (3M) ▼ 8.78%, (YTD) ▼ 3.19%
• ???? Nifty 50: 279.20 USD, ▲ 0.20%, Δ +0.55 USD, Volume – 176.82M, Performance (1M) ▼ 1.62%, (3M) ▼ 9.28%, (YTD) ▲ 9.60%

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• ?? Emerging Markets (EEM iShares Index Fund): 42.30 USD, ▼ 0.45%, Δ -0.19 USD, Volume – 22.52M, Performance (1M) ▼ 2.51%, (3M) ▼ 9.36%, (YTD) ▲ 6.20%

. . .

??? BOND MARKETS

• ???? Japan 10-Year JGB Yield: 1.114%, ▲ 2.86%, Δ +0.031%, Performance (1W) ▲ 5.59%, (1M) ▲ 3.72%, (3M) ▲ 37.70%, (YTD) ▲ 78.24%

?? The European Session

The European trading session is unique in its position as a bridge between Asian and North American markets, a crucial period of global market activity. For traders, the European session offers unique opportunities due to its high liquidity and the economic significance of the region. Major exchanges drive significant trading volume, while the potential for increased volatility, especially during economic data releases, overlaps with other global trading sessions.

?? INDICES

• ???? CAC 40: 7,665.91 USD, ▲ 1.17%, Δ +88.64 USD, Volume – 43.23M, Performance (1M) ▲ 2.87%, (3M) ▼ 5.24%, (YTD) ▼ 2.93%
• ???? DAX 30: 20,824.26 USD, ▲ 0.60%, Δ +123.58 USD, Volume – 43.23M, Performance (1M) ▲ 3.77%, (3M) ▲ 3.77%, (YTD) ▲ 18.75%
• ???? FTSE 100: 10,202.48 USD, ▲ 0.06%, Δ +6.27 USD, Volume – n/a, Performance (1M) ▼ 1.32%, (3M) ▼ 1.63%, (YTD) ▲ 5.39%

. . .

?? Baltic Dry Index: 997 USD, ▲ 0.30%, Δ +3 USD

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a critical measure of global shipping costs for dry bulk commodities, has experienced significant volatility in 2024, shaped by fluctuating demand across vessel segments, geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, environmental regulations, and the dynamics of key commodities like iron ore and coal. As a barometer of international trade health, the BDI’s movements reflect the complex interplay of global market forces and challenges within the maritime industry.

. . .

??? BOND MARKETS

• ???? Gilt 10-Year Yield: 4.639%, ▲ 0.87%, Δ +0.040%, Performance (1W) ▲ 0.96%, (1M) ▲ 7.66%, (3M) ▲ 15.63%, (YTD) ▲ 31.08%
• ???? OAT 10-Year Yield: 3.219%, ▲ 2.58%, Δ +0.081%, Performance (1W) ▲ 3.17%, (1M) ▲ 6.38%, (3M) ▲ 8.90%, (YTD) ▲ 25.35%
• ???? Bund 10-Year Yield: 2.401%, ▲ 3.14%, Δ +0.073%, Performance (1W) ▲ 4.07%, (1M) ▲ 10.70%, (3M) ▲ 10.65%, (YTD) ▲ 16.10%
• ???? Italy 10-Year Yield: 3.549%, ▲ 1.40%, Δ +0.049%, Performance (1W) ▲ 2.10%, (1M) ▲ 2.99%, (3M) ▲ 1.75%, (YTD) ▲ 4.06%
• ???? Norway 10-Year Yield: 3.857%, ▲ 1.61%, Δ +0.061%, Performance (1W) ▲ 1.90%, (1M) ▲ 6.31%, (3M) ▲ 14.72%, (YTD) ▲ 16.88%
• ???? Türkiye 10-Year Yield: 27.430%, ▼ 2.66%, Δ -0.750%, Performance (1W) ▼ 1.86%, (1M) ▼ 0.58%, (3M) ▲ 2.35%, (YTD) ▲ 15.79%

?? The American Session

American stock market indices are unique in their global influence and diversity. In terms of market structure, North American exchanges are at the forefront of technological innovation, with high-frequency trading and advanced order types playing a significant role. South American exchanges, while modernizing, generally maintain more traditional trading structures. South American indices can move independently of their Northern counterparts based on local economic and political factors, providing opportunities for global speculators.

?? INDICES

• ???? S&P 500: 5,970.85 USD, ▼ 1.11%, Δ -66.73 USD, Volume – 1.77B, Performance (1M) ▼ 0.72%, (3M) ▲ 3.74%, (YTD) ▲ 25.83%
• ???? NYSE Composite Index: 19,364.50 USD, ▲ 0.12%, Δ +23.02 USD, Performance (1M) ▼ 4.23%, (3M) ▼ 0.70%, (YTD) ▲ 14.90%
• ???? Dow Jones Industrial Average: 43,330 POINTS, ▲ 0.07%, Δ +28.77 POINTS, Performance (1M) ▲ 1.75%, (3M) ▲ 1.75%, (YTD) ▲ 14.73%
• ???? Dow Jones Transportation Average: 16.1K POINTS, ▲ 0.25%, Δ +40.79 POINTS
• ???? Nasdaq Composite Index: 21,473.01 USD, ▼ 1.36%, Δ -295.30 USD, Volume – 836.39M, Performance (1M) ▲ 2.98%, (3M) ▲ 6.58%, (YTD) ▲ 28.83%
• ???? Russell 2000: 2,244.59 USD, ▼ 1.56%, Δ -35.60 USD, Performance (1M) ▼ 7.63%, (3M) ▲ 0.66%, (YTD) ▲ 11.52%
• ???? TSX Composite Index: 17,201.26 USD, ▼ 0.46%, Δ -79.70 USD, Volume – 218.08M, Performance (1M) ▼ 2.33%, (3M) ▲ 3.14%, (YTD) ▲ 18.62%
• ???? IPC: 2,436.85 USD, ▼ 0.80%, Δ -19.69 USD, Volume – 94.71M, Performance (1M) ▼ 0.80%, (3M) ▼ 7.94%, (YTD) ▼ 14.21%
• ???? MERVAL: 2,518.26 USD, ▼ 0.63%, Δ -16.04 USD, Performance (1M) ▲ 14.44%, (3M) ▲ 50.24%, (YTD) ▲ 177.24%
• ???? Bovespa: 19,418.03 USD, ▲ 2.77%, Δ +523.88 USD

. . .

??? BOND MARKETS

• ???? US 2-Year Yield: 4.332%, ▲ 0.00%, Δ +0.000%, Performance (1W) ▲ 0.35%, (1M) ▲ 1.88%, (3M) ▲ 19.24%, (YTD) ▲ 1.93%
• ???? US 10-Year Yield: 4.631%, ▲ 1.00%, Δ +0.046%, Performance (1W) ▲ 1.69%, (1M) ▲ 7.60%, (3M) ▲ 21.93%, (YTD) ▲ 19.79%
• ???? US 2Y-10Y Spread: 0.299%, ▲ 18.18%, Δ +0.046%
• ???? Brazil 10-Year Yield (BR 10Y): 15.136%, ▲ 2.85%, Δ +0.419%, Performance (1W) ▲ 4.02%, (1M) ▲ 18.28%, (3M) ▲ 23.95%, (YTD) ▲ 46.57%

?? COMMODITIES

?? METALS

• ?? Gold (GC1!): 2,631.9 USD, ▼ 0.83%, Δ -22.0 USD, Volume – 92.26K, Performance (1W) ▲ 0.85%, (1M) ▼ 0.99%, (3M) ▼ 2.34%, (YTD) ▲ 26.98%
• ?? Silver (SI1!): 29.970 USD, ▼ 1.39%, Δ -0.420 USD, Volume – 28.99K, Performance (1W) ▲ 1.67%, (1M) ▼ 3.11%, (3M) ▼ 7.25%, (YTD) ▲ 24.63%
• ?? Copper (HG1!): 4.1220 USD, ▼ 0.13%, Δ -0.0055 USD, Volume – 26.84K, Performance (1W) ▲ 0.92%, (1M) ▼ 0.22%, (3M) ▼ 11.31%, (YTD) ▲ 5.81%
• ??/?? Gold-Silver Ratio ≈ 87.78
• ??/?? Gold-Copper Ratio ≈ 638.60

. . .

?? ENERGY

• ??? WTI Crude Oil (WTI): 69.875 USD, ▲ 0.85%, Δ +0.590 USD, Volume – 23.37K, Performance (1W) ▲ 1.68%, (1M) ▲ 2.06%, (3M) ▲ 4.36%, (YTD) ▼ 4.65%
• ??? Brent Crude Futures (BRN1!): 73.79 USD, ▲ 1.29%, Δ +0.94 USD, Volume – 271.15K, Performance (1W) ▲ 1.29%, (1M) ▲ 2.06%, (3M) ▲ 4.36%, (YTD) ▼ 4.65%
• ?? Natural Gas Futures (NG1!): 3.383 USD, ▼ 8.94%, Δ -0.332 USD, Volume – 183.45K, Performance (1W) ▼ 6.86%, (1M) ▼ 2.45%, (3M) ▲ 23.29%, (YTD) ▲ 29.87%
• ? LNG Japan/Korea Marker Futures (JKM1!): 14.290 USD, ▲ 2.33%, Δ +0.325 USD, Performance (1W) ▲ 4.57%, (1M) ▼ 4.86%, (3M) ▲ 8.22%, (YTD) ▲ 24.31%
• ?? Coal (API2) CIF ARA (MTF1!): 111.60 USD, ▼ 0.36%, Δ -0.40 USD, Performance (1W) ▼ 0.09%, (1M) ▼ 8.26%, (3M) ▼ 5.94%, (YTD) ▲ 5.13%
• ? NY Harbor ULSD Futures (HO1!): 2.2499 USD, ▲ 1.80%, Δ +0.0397 USD, Volume – 47.08K, Performance (1W) ▲ 0.64%, (1M) ▲ 1.79%, (3M) ▲ 4.57%, (YTD) ▼ 11.88%
• ? RBOB Gasoline Futures (RB1!): 1.9711 USD, ▲ 0.71%, Δ +0.0139 USD, Volume – 38.02K, Performance (1W) ▲ 2.34%, (1M) ▲ 1.11%, (3M) ▲ 2.55%, (YTD) ▼ 6.54%
• ? US Diesel Sales Price (GASDESW): 3.48 USD, ▼ 0.52%, Δ -0.02 USD
• ? Uranium Futures (UX2!): 70.35 USD, ▲ 0.50%, Δ +0.35 USD, Performance (1W) ▲ 4.57%, (1M) ▲ 8.22%, (3M) ▲ 5.94%, (YTD) ▲ 24.31%

. . .

?? MISCELLANEOUS

?? TOP 3 RISING PREMIUM YTD

• ?? Cocoa Futures (CC1!): 9,876 USD, ▼ 10.44%, Δ -1,151 USD, Volume – 13.45K, Performance (1W) ▼ 16.64%, (1M) ▲ 7.35%, (3M) ▲ 22.26%, (YTD) ▲ 134.64%
• ? Coffee Futures (KC1!): 3.20 USD, ▼ 0.91%, Δ -0.05 USD, Volume – 11.07K, Performance (1W) ▼ 1.17%, (1M) ▲ 3.77%, (3M) ▲ 18.27%, (YTD) ▲ 70.53%
• ?? Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice Futures (OJ1!): 5.05 USD, ▲ 1.31%, Δ +0.05 USD, Volume – 649, Performance (1W) ▼ 7.37%, (1M) ▼ 2.09%, (3M) ▲ 6.94%, (YTD) ▲ 61.65%

?? TOP 3 FALLING DISCOUNT YTD

• ?? Soybean Futures (ZS1!): 10.00 USD, ▼ 0.75%, Δ -0.00 USD, Volume – 100.58K, Performance (1W) ▲ 2.46%, (1M) ▲ 0.58%, (3M) ▼ 4.81%, (YTD) ▼ 23.30%
• ?? Rice Futures (ZR1!): 13.94 USD, ▼ 0.78%, Δ -0.110 USD, Volume – 1.18K, Performance (1W) ▼ 3.86%, (1M) ▼ 7.83%, (3M) ▼ 7.38%, (YTD) ▼ 20.43%
• ?? Sugar No. 11 Futures (SB1!): 0.19 USD, ▲ 0.52%, Δ +0.00 USD, Volume – 34.31K, Performance (1W) ▼ 0.62%, (1M) ▼ 10.70%, (3M) ▼ 16.62%, (YTD) ▼ 6.02%

?? U.S. STOCKS

The Technical Speculator’s complete Watchlist of U.S. Stocks includes representative proxies for the U.S. economy at large, based on their market cap and their business as leading indicators of commercial activity, but they do not compromise investing or trading advice. More lucrative opportunities in the short to medium term (based on Volume, Volatility and Trend Exhaustion), are also on the list, which is too long to reproduce here. Follow the links and/or leave technical questions with the barman.

?? : ?? CNN Fear & Greed Index : 34 reflects a timid sentiment in the stock market.

The attitude is Risk Off. Whales are taking profit as investors look for safer havens, as shown by the index. Compared to the neutral sentiment (54) in crypto markets, equities exhibit more caution. A cocktail of fear in junk bonds mixed with greed in options indicates a bifurcated market where cautious optimism and risk aversion coexist as if in suspended animation … before the tryptophan wears off and reality lands like the proverbial other shoe.

• The historical sentiment shows significant dips into “Extreme Fear” earlier in the year (April 2024), followed by recovery to the 50s during periods of optimism.
• The recent decline back into “Fear” underscores increasing concerns, potentially driven by macroeconomic uncertainty or earnings season disappointments. Put/Call Ratio: While the broader index reflects fear, the bullish activity in options (Greed in put/call ratio) shows pockets of speculative optimistic market activity.
• The 5-day moving average of the put/call ratio is labeled as Greed, suggesting an increased interest in call options relative to puts.
• This implies that some investors are still actively positioning for potential upside in equities, contrary to the general fearful tone.

Junk Bond Demand: The low appetite for junk bonds suggests that investors are avoiding high-risk assets, favoring safer instruments like Treasuries or investment-grade bonds.

• The yield spread between junk bonds and investment-grade bonds is marked as Fear, indicating reduced investor appetite for high-risk debt.
• This reflects broader concerns about economic stability, with investors demanding higher premiums for taking on credit risk.

. . .

The focus this week is on Nano Dimension (NNDM).

Nano Dimension, a pioneer in additive manufacturing for electronics, specializes in cutting-edge technologies such as its DragonFly system for High-Performance-Electronic-Devices and multi-material 3D printing. With applications spanning aerospace, medical devices, automotive, and consumer electronics, the company integrates AI-driven solutions and advanced robotics to enhance efficiency and innovation, solidifying its position as a leader in Industry 4.0 and the evolving landscape of Additively Manufactured Electronics (AME).

The investment outlook for Nano Dimension and the broader additive manufacturing industry presents a mixed picture of challenges and opportunities. Despite recent market volatility, Nano Dimension has demonstrated strong financial performance, reporting a 22% year-over-year revenue increase to $14.9 million in Q3 2024, with an improved gross margin of 48.2%. This growth trajectory aligns with the company’s ambitious target of $340 million in revenue, supported by a 29% organic revenue growth in 2023 and a significant 69% reduction in cash burn during the first half of 2024.

The company’s strategic acquisitions and technological advancements, particularly in AI-enhanced manufacturing and multi-material printing, may attract investor interest. These innovations align with the industry’s shift towards more sophisticated, integrated manufacturing solutions, potentially opening new revenue streams and market opportunities.

. . .

????♂? Insider Trading, especially large buys, are a leading indicator of short term opportunities for the Technical Speculator. We maintain a rotating Watchlist of interesting insider buys (and a few sells) . The raw data feed is also available via Tradingview.

The focus this week is on Surf Air Mobility (SRFM).

Surf Air Mobility, the largest commuter airline in the U.S. by scheduled departures, is transforming regional air travel through its innovative four-phase Transformation Plan, which includes operational optimization, fleet expansion, AI-powered technology integration, and groundbreaking electrification efforts. Supported by strategic partnerships, acquisitions, and a $50 million financing secured in November 2024, the company aims to revolutionize the industry with sustainable practices and advanced technologies while positioning itself for long-term profitability and market leadership.

The Regional Air Mobility (RAM) market presents significant growth opportunities for Surf Air Mobility and other players in the industry. With a large addressable market, the sector is poised for expansion, driven by technological advancements and changing travel preferences.

The future of regional aviation is likely to be characterized by extensive use of innovative technologies. Industry forecasts suggest that regional aviation’s potential market could increase by up to 20% due to these technological advancements. Surf Air Mobility’s focus on electrification and AI-powered operations positions it well to capitalize on this trend.

Furthermore, the company’s partnership with Palantir Technologies to develop SurfOS, an AI-powered operating system for the advanced air mobility industry, opens up new market opportunities. As artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data transform advanced air mobility, Surf Air Mobility could leverage its technological expertise to offer solutions to other operators in the industry.

?? CRYPTOCURRENCIES

?? : ?? Crypto Fear & Greed Index : 54 often signals a choppy consolidation phase, as traders wait for stronger catalysts to push prices … a cautious yet stable investor outlook.

1. Recent Sentiment Movement:
2. Broader Outlook:

. . .

For a deeper dive into any of these various crypto projects, follow the individual links and/or consult the Technical Speculator’s Dictionary.

• ? Bitcoin (BTC): $94,312.75, ▼ 1.47% (1D), Volume – 17.8K, ▼ 3.23% (1W), ▲ 2.57% (1M), ▲ 43.24% (3M), ▲ 125.35% (YTD)
• Ξ Ethereum (ETH): $3,321.61, ▼ 0.28% (1D), Volume – 121.02K, ▼ 2.75% (1W), ▲ 2.87% (1M), ▲ 23.19% (3M), ▲ 45.56% (YTD)
• ? XRP: $2.1395, ▼ 0.66% (1D), Volume – 9.08M, ▼ 4.59% (1W), ▲ 52.90% (1M), ▲ 263.02% (3M), ▲ 247.62% (YTD)
• ?? Solana: $183.57, ▼ 2.48% (1D), Volume – 594.58K, ▼ 5.18% (1W), ▼ 20.37% (1M), ▲ 16.46% (3M), ▲ 80.55% (YTD)
• ?? Chainlink: $21.506, ▼ 5.08% (1D), Volume – 2.11M, ▼ 5.85% (1W), ▲ 23.84% (1M), ▲ 69.40% (3M), ▲ 43.72% (YTD)
• ?? Polkadot: $6.882, ▼ 0.62% (1D), Volume – 927.5K, ▼ 0.96% (1W), ▼ 14.68% (1M), ▲ 40.88% (3M), ▼ 16.17% (YTD)
• ?? Hedera Hashgraph: $0.2754, ▼ 3.14% (1D), Volume – 24.69M, ▲ 2.16% (1W), ▲ 97.30% (1M), ▲ 343.06% (3M), ▲ 219.38% (YTD)
• ? VeChain: $0.0452, ▼ 1.49% (1D), Volume – 13.94M, ▲ 2.73% (1W), ▲ 11.36% (1M), ▲ 75.13% (3M), ▲ 32.99% (YTD)
• ?? Algorand: $0.3312, ▼ 4.28% (1D), Volume – 50.54M, ▼ 0.42% (1W), ▲ 11.16% (1M), ▲ 129.56% (3M), ▲ 48.27% (YTD)
• ?? JasmyCoin: $0.03433, ▼ 3.16% (1D), Volume – 539.33M, ▲ 1.78% (1W), ▲ 45.03% (1M), ▲ 40.29% (3M), ▲ 424.46% (YTD)
• ? Tezos: $1.334, ▼ 0.89% (1D), Volume – 4.82M, ▲ 10.98% (1W), ▲ 11.45% (1M), ▲ 76.22% (3M), ▲ 111.68% (YTD)
• ?? Amp Token: $0.00780, ▲ 2.90% (1D), Volume – 343.86M, ▼ 7.04% (1W), ▲ 55.49% (1M), ▲ 79.08% (3M), ▲ 111.68% (YTD)
• ? Celo: $0.664, ▲ 1.37% (1D), Volume – 735.52K, ▲ 3.11% (1W), ▼ 20.48% (1M), ▲ 2.31% (3M), ▼ 14.10% (YTD)

. . .

MARKET CAP (TOTALS)

• 1?? Crypto Total Market Cap, $: $3.21T, ▼ 0.98% (1D), Volume – $222.72B, ▼ 2.04% (1W), ▲ 3.31% (1M), ▲ 41.78% (3M), ▲ 99.93% (YTD)
• 2?? Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC, $: $1.34T, ▼ 0.26% (1D), Volume – $175.47B, ▼ 0.33% (1W), ▲ 4.37% (1M), ▲ 39.35% (3M), ▲ 72.82% (YTD)
• 3?? Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC and ETH, $: $942.85B, ▼ 0.25% (1D), Volume – $151.69B, ▲ 0.73% (1W), ▲ 6.37% (1M), ▲ 47.46% (3M), ▲ 87.35% (YTD)
• ?? Crypto Total DeFi Market Cap, $: $121.52B, ▼ 0.10% (1D), Volume – $7.15B, ▲ 0.43% (1W), ▲ 15.42% (1M), ▲ 45.25% (3M), ▲ 68.39% (YTD)

Real-time versions of the author’s select charts are freely available via his Tradingview IDEAS page; check back often for the growing catalog and/or request a work-up.

?? PROFIT MARGIN

?? Congratulations on going all the way with me.

As we close the book on 2024, several narratives are already setting the stage for 2025. China’s debut of polysilicon futures signals its determination to control not just the production but also the pricing of solar materials—a critical piece in the global energy transition puzzle. Meanwhile, soaring over-the-counter crypto trading volumes highlight institutional appetite for altcoins and sophisticated hedging strategies. This isn’t just liquidity—it’s a quiet reshaping of crypto’s market structure.

The global stage grows ever more fragmented. The BRICS nations are ramping up RMB-based trade, striking at the core of U.S. dollar dominance. China and Russia are spearheading these shifts, while India leverages its G20 presidency to solidify its role as a regional power. Even closer to home, the U.K.’s deepening ties with Beijing underscore a pragmatic pivot, as Brexit’s economic aftershocks continue to reshape its trade dependencies. These moves hint at a reconfiguration of alliances and influence, with lasting implications for capital flows and geopolitical stability.

Domestically, small businesses are buoyed by a surge in optimism, but rising producer prices loom large, threatening their margins and dampening longer-term confidence. The tech sector, still riding the AI wave, is buoyant, but the broader semiconductor market feels the drag of softening consumer electronics demand. Add to this Wall Street’s abrupt selloff—a stark reminder of just how quickly sentiment can sour—and you have a market teetering between resilience and fragility.

After a seeming holiday lull, the near future after the new year promises to be anything but quiet. China’s maneuvers, crypto’s evolution, and shifting geopolitical power dynamics are the appetizers; the inflation print, Fed guidance, and equity momentum will be main course options. The market’s contradictions aren’t bugs—they’re the features of an era in flux … not for eating, despite what the WEF would have you believe.

?? Be Liquid …

?? CAVEAT EMPTOR

This is NOT financial advice. The intention here is to learn from Real-World capital flow how to recognize, measure and profit from the price action of various asset classes in these tense times. Only YOU can select a strategy that suits your temperament, your tolerance for risk and your time horizon, such that no content for public consumption will coincide with your strategy exactly … assuming that you have a strategy. Participation in financial asset markets is intrinsically risky; long-term profitable navigators agree that you should never risk more buying power than you are willing and able to lose. Also, beware of fraudulent actors. Since counter-party risk is real, strive to learn from your mistakes and others’. Finally and most importantly, what others feel, you will feel, ergo study your emotions, but do not trust them or obey them.