Maker's Market Dossier #4 (4.21.2024)
AMUSE BOUCHE : Distilling this Dossier for the public has me feeling a bit like a dog chasing cars. Now that I've got my canines deep into an ambulance - or is it a school bus? - I'm not sure what to do with this thing, and swallowing it isn't an option. My point is that I cannot throw this bone out daily, considering ... well, just scroll down and you'll see. Henceforth, these briefings will be served twice weekly, with midweek and weekend pours. Quality has never been a bottleneck that we have been tempted to cheat.
MARKET MOOD
The inciting thesis here was that this time really is different, and that what has changed is the degree of tension. This will remain in effect for longer than you would wish, for reasons that I hope to discuss in other writings, when this series achieves escape velocity. In short, the ability to remain alert and adaptable is more crucial than ever to active market participants.
For example, the recent events at Google, a protest against an Israeli cloud contract, illustrate this tension between corporate governance practices and workers. The firm response to the sit-in was to fire the 30 dissident employees, signaling a strategic shift towards business imperatives above individual activism.
Meanwhile, the resilience of Industry and Transportation contrasts sharply with the declines experienced by the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500. The rotation towards more traditionally stable investments underscores a growing recognition of lasting tension. In a recent trading session (charts pending), the Dow Jones Averages managed to squeeze out minor gains, emerging as the winners in the Red Sea of market downturn fueled by geopolitical tensions and ambiguous central banking policies.
To wit, the week was also marked by geopolitical and economic shifts within the semiconductor industry, with many of its luminaries reporting their earnings. The sector has had to reconfigure itself due to U.S. sanctions against China, which, rather than stifling, have unexpectedly bolstered Chinese technological advancements.
The pivot is reshaping competitive dynamics and influencing investment decisions globally. Initially aimed at curtailing China's technological growth, U.S. sanctions have instead spurred enhancements in China’s semiconductor production capabilities. I published this chart of the DXY earlier in the week, and I intend to look more closely at the currency war directly in the FX charts later this month.
These developments result in a classic case of comically unintended consequences, complicating the U.S.'s strategic objectives on the one hand while deftly disarming the dominance of Western chip champions on the other. The accelerated self-sufficiency of China in semiconductor manufacturing not only shifts the balance of power in global tech industries but also signals a potential realignment of global supply chains and technological leadership.
This is especially true in the EV industry, which sees that both its demand and, more importantly its supply chain, are more secure ... for better or for worse. The quality of those cars versus their combustion-engine counterparts is unknown to me, but their safety record is as rock-solid as Chinese the roads the on which they run. In particular, Neodymium production, a critical link in that chain, is tightly controlled by China.
Speculators call this "Jurisdictional Risk"; see below for more on that topic.
Expansion outside of China is limited by complex extraction processes and environmental regulations. Is it any wonder that major car makers in the West are in a high-octane race ... for an off-ramp from this idealistic sub-industry?
Tesla, among the magnificent Seven, will be reporting its earning this week, and will be all over the news cycle. Ford (F), another member of the House Watchlist, is also due, as is Newmont (NEM), which appears in one of our more select, commodities-focused menus. Besides the major names discussed, I will watch the following names (arranged by market cap) as leading indicators both of the direction of the economy and of which charts to survey for trading opportunities.
1. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) - $474.872B USD
2. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) - $96.429B USD
3. SCCO - Southern Copper Corporation - $88.197B USD
4. GM - General Motors Company - $49.283B USD
5. F - Ford Motor Company (F) - $48.598B USD
6. NEM - Newmont Corporation (NEM) - $44.313B USD
7. United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) - $123.655B USD
This heady blend of geopolitical tension and investor behavior in the air, and of traditional assets and emerging technologies like Bitcoin (see below) splitting the financial focus, together present a multifaceted array of risks and opportunities for the prepared speculator. For short-term traders, meanwhile, the post-Bitcoin halving landscape presents several juicy possibilities.
Staying informed about the meaning of market trends, the blind spots of investor sentiment, and the geopolitical relevance (or lack thereof) of major events will be crucial in surfing the Volatility profitably. It’s different out there …
TRADE WINDS
Time is fractal, as you can see by comparing the next slide with last. Subscribe for deeper multi-timeframe analyses of key charts from the House Watchlist, and a curated selection of others.
Asset prices are correlated to one another in varying degrees, as you can see by comparing the last slide with the next. The lead and lag change at nonrandom intervals, not only between prices and but even between industries.
In order to grow your wealth in the financial markets (instead of by means of your labor), you must leverage time at scale, which demands that you surf more Volatility than investors can stomach. The good news, though, as you can see for yourself, is that time is fractal.
INDICES
METALS
ENERGY
US STOCKS?
BONDS
CRYPTO
Volume and Volatility are leading indicators of Trend Exhaustion. Because Crypto trades 24/7, weekend readings of capital flow are a leading indicator of next week's sentiment and price action. Saturday's readings (4.20.20240 show the heavier-than-normal thumbprint of an incoming Bandwagon Effect following last week's flash crash.
Notes:
A real-time version of the House Watchlist is available at:
The menu offers several other Reserve Watchlists for more discretionary palettes. This week's special is advertised below. Don't hesitate to ask for a private tasting.
Crypto + Blockchain Watchlist:
SECTOR SPOTLIGHT
The cryptocurrency market recently experienced a pivotal event known as Bitcoin's 'halving,' which reduced the mining rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. The backdrop to this cryptocurrency narrative is a broader market environment characterized by significant Volatility across various asset classes.
The significance of this shift cannot be understated, though, as Bitcoin sheds its 'speculative asset' cargo shorts and dons its Big Boy Pants, able to go toe-to-toe with its traditional hard-nosed safe haven cousins. The S2F model measures the abundance of a commodity by comparing the total amount currently available (stock) with the amount produced annually (flow).
A higher ratio indicates a higher scarcity, and consequently, a potential for price appreciation due to supply constraints. Yet as we glide through this narrative of evolving scarcity and increasing value, it's crucial to anchor our exuberance with a pinch of skepticism. The S2F model, while compelling, isn't without its critics, me among them.
It assumes that market demand will continue unabated, and that external economic factors will align to favor Bitcoin’s ascension. Such assumptions, while optimistic, require that investors (not traders) level up their financial literacy and read the fine print. Most traders will lose money because that’s what they do, but those who have honed an Edge will be able to profit no matter which way price moves.
By comparison, Gold and Silver are traditional stores of value with centuries of historical data. Their S2F ratios have been stable due to consistent production and large existing stock. Gold fluctuates around 60, meaning it would take ± 60 years of current production to match the current (known) Gold stock. Typically lower than Gold’s, Silver hovers around 22, suggesting a lesser relative scarcity, despite its many industrial uses.
Bitcoin is unique in that its S2F ratio is programmatically set to increase over time due to its halving events. Unlike Gold or Silver, where discoveries or technological advancements can alter the flow, Bitcoin's supply change is predictable.
Bitcoin halving dates:
领英推荐
Now projected to have an S2F ratio of 120, Bitcoin is presumed to be more scarce than gold. This underpins some investors’ (i..e influencers') price forecasts, where the higher S2F ratio could theoretically lead to a higher market valuation relative to gold.
The halving also influences market sentiment and investor behavior, which can lead to increased Volatility — a green flag for day traders. The anticipation of price increases can attract both institutional and retail investors, creating trading opportunities through higher liquidity and price fluctuations.
Furthermore, the recent and pending approvals of spot ETFs will elevate market complexity, increasing Volume by providing more entry and exit points. However, as transaction costs also increase, its inventor's thesis must come under greater scrutiny. If Bitcoin is only a tradable and not money, is it not worth even less than Gold, the infamous inert rock?
I will have much more to write on these details, both the (lack of) intrinsic value of Bitcoin and ways to make money from it.
RISK RADAR
As noted, despite the broader market downturns, the Dow has demonstrated resilience, suggesting a nuanced trend toward market stability. This stability amidst Volatility emphasizes a strategic pivot by investors towards traditionally secure assets, like Gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, which are favored during periods of uncertainty.
Both Gold's and Crude Oil's attraction to unpredictability underscore their seemingly unrelated roles as refuge assets during turbulent times. The surge in these assets aligns other metals like silver and, especially lately copper, whose prices and demands are also influenced by their inverse relationship with the USD.
Mining output and technological advancements play no part in shaping market expectations and price movements, which creates opportunities for those who see the real-world resource constraints, particularly in metal markets. Issues such as anticipated supply shortfalls due to mining constraints or geopolitical instability — especially in critical regions like the DRC or even South America — can severely impact the supply chains of essential metals like Gold and Silver ... or Cobalt and Copper.
These two charts show Trend Exhaustion in Buenaventura Mining (BVN), which I bought at floor prices last year; note the interplay between Volatility and Volume, in the chart below. It's presently considered an over-performer, however I selected it at the time precisely because of the jurisdictional risk that held its relative value below its competitors.
First Majestic Silver (AG) is widely considered the leader of the pack among investors, and with good reason, however I have found greater Volatility in more obscure names. I will publish a dedicated watchlist soon, of miners, royalties and ETFs. Your mileage may vary.
For now, it looks as though it, too, has temporarily reached Trend Exhaustion, suggesting the rotation into more industrial metals. This 8h version of the same chart shows the critical VWAPs to advantage. For next time, I will prepare the chart for Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO), which posts its earnings this coming week.
These potential disruptions have broader implications, potentially delaying advancements in sectors reliant on these metals, such as renewable energy generation (and storage), and the physical construction of the Cloud in the form of distributed data centers.
When viewed alongside Bitcoin mining, these dynamics present an instructive contrast. Bitcoin mining's reliance on semiconductor chips introduces a tech-driven bottleneck similar to supply constraints in traditional metal mining.
While Bitcoin's digital nature isolates it from some (from far all) of the geopolitical risks that affect physical mining operations, both sectors face strong environmental criticisms, whether due to the physical degradation associated with traditional mining or the substantial energy consumption required.
The many aforementioned market drivers, and many others unmentioned and beyond my present scope, reflect a significant shift in sentiment and, with it, capital flow. Have another drink, and grab a surfboard . . .
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INTER-MARKET FORECAST
7 TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES REPORTING THIS WEEK
Microsoft (MSFT - $3.074T USD) is anticipated to achieve a 12.6% annual growth in earnings and revenue, concentrating on cloud computing and AI products. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from $11.61 to $13.15 next year, aligning with an overall EPS growth rate of 12.6% per year. The EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter stands at $2.8.
Alphabet Inc (GOOG - $1.934T USD), the parent company of Google, expects an EPS of $1.49. With Google Cloud and advertising as major growth drivers, Alphabet’s revenue is predicted to increase by 11% annually, reaching about $340.61B in 2024. Its earnings are set to rise by 14.60% next fiscal year, moving from $6.78 to $7.77 per share.
As mentioned, we are seeing an increasingly tougher Google and a tougher Sundar Pichai at the top. For many years, the firm tolerated an openness for employees to bring social, political causes to work with it founding mantra, "Don't be evil." The more businesslike Pichai sent a note to employees outlining how he would stream line structure, improve velocity and execution, and the most interesting part of the memo came at the end:
'This is a business, not a place to act in a way that disrupts coworkers or makes them feel unsafe to attempt to use the company as a personal platform or fight over disruptive issues or debate politics.'
How his performance impacts the financials will play out at the top and bottom lines of the mega caps, and on Bloomberg news. Investors will be looking for more of this kind of commentary, for hints of Google on the offense, and for how "Search", its cash cow, is bear the competition. Ironically, the most up-to-date commentary is already in-house, i.e. YouTube.
Amazon (AMZN - $1.907T USD) projects its earnings to rise by 21.5% annually, with revenue growth forecasted at 9.9% per year. The consensus for the next fiscal year puts its adjusted EPS at $4.17. In Q1 2024, EPS is expected to be $0.83, and for the fiscal year 2024, it is estimated at $4.19, a 44.36% increase YoY. Net sales for Q4 2023 are anticipated between $138.0B and $143.5B, marking an 8%-13% increase from Q1 last year. Expected revenue for fiscal year 2024 is $641.32B, a 20.5% rise, with an ongoing average of $798.8B over the next five years.
Meta Platforms (META - $1.275T USD) is expected to see its revenue grow by 11.2% annually, with a notable 17.3% increase in 2024, reaching $158.2B. The growth might be affected by investments in VR and other emerging technologies. To add further competition and complexity, Meta's announced that it is integrating assistance into apps, and releasing Llama3. The goalposts are shifting very quickly. Google seems to understand that it needs to get its house in order so it can keep up or take back the lead, which some feel it's given up.
Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) - $189.541B USD) reported a Non-GAAP EPS of $2.75 for Q1 fiscal 2024, up by 16%. The EPS forecast for the March 2024 quarter is $2.31, with revenue from Q1 2024 up by 5% year-over-year at $9.9 billion. Q2 fiscal 2024 revenue is expected between $8.9B and $9.7B, with a consensus estimate of $9.29B for the March quarter. Analysts project a 2025 revenue of approximately $45.36B, with earnings anticipated to grow by 10.92% to $8.53 per share next year.
To be blunt, Tesla (TSLA - $514.28B USD) is the bellwether for the American EV business, and the stock is down 41% so far this year. Last week, it announced the lay-off about 14,000 of its domestic employees, or more than 10%. The move comes after a quarter during which the company missed delivery expectations and just before it reveals its quarterly profits on Tuesday. ?
The layoffs at Tesla are only part of the EV debacle, that includes growing competition, shrinking innovation and supply shocks. The bad news continued Friday when the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ordered the company to recall nearly all the Cybertrucks it has produced at its factory in Austin, Texas. That's about 3,900 vehicles to be repaired because of an accelerator pedal that might get stuck in the down position.
Whether Tesla, the EV market or Elon Musk ever recover is open question, however if they do, it won't be soon. There may be downside potential to short, but there is no hurry to go long; this is NOT the dip you're looking for.
Intel Corporation (INTC - $153.519B USD) expects an 8% annual increase in revenue, although recent forecasts fall short of market expectations, hinting at potential challenges. Earnings stabilization is anticipated with new strategies in chip manufacturing. Although the stock price could lose a few percentage points, it currently sits at the Point-of-Control of its last major swing low, approximately where it was three earnings reports ago. The company has been arguably overambitious, marking it at the discount we see today.
3 CONSUMER GOODS COMPANIES REPORTING THIS WEEK
1. PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP), mcap $229.461B USD : The company aims to achieve a minimum of 4% organic revenue growth for 2024. The company reported fourth quarter revenue in 2023 as $27.85B, which fell slightly short of expectations.
2. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), mcap $96.429B USD : The chain has forecasted a global revenue growth rate of 10% to 12% annually from fiscal 2023 through fiscal 2025. For the quarter ending December 31, 2023, the company posted a revenue of $9.425B, representing an 8.16% increase compared to the previous year.
3. Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL), mcap $70.931B USD : The firm predicts its sales growth will range from 1% to 4% in 2024, with the midpoint falling below the average analysts’ growth estimate of 3.55%. The company’s revenue for the quarter ending December 31, 2023, was recorded at $4.95B.
3 ENERGY COMPANIES REPORTING THIS WEEK
1. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), mcap $474.872B USD : Exxon Mobil’s revenue forecast for 2024 stands at approximately $381.6B, suggesting an 11% increase year-over-year.
2. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), mcap $56.745B USD : Revenue projections for Valero Energy vary, with some forecasts indicating an annual decline of up to 7.6%.
3. Halliburton Company (HAL), mcap $34.803B USD : Halliburton is anticipated to see its revenue grow by 5.1% annually. The company reported revenue of $23.02B for the year 2023, demonstrating a continuing growth trend.
3 INDUSTRIALS COMPANIES REPORTING THIS WEEK
1. Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT), mcap $181.728B USD : Analysts project Caterpillar’s revenues for 2024 to be around $67.2B, with earnings per share anticipated to reach approximately $20.70.
2. Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT, mcap $108.964B USD : Earnings are projected to grow by 7.96% next year, increasing from $26.13 to $28.21 per share. While specific revenue forecasts for the next year were not provided, the company reported $67.6B in revenue for 2023.
3. Boeing Company (BA), mcap $102.393B USD : I'm not even gonna touch this one. It's bad enough that cross-country travel is no longer thanks to DEI, which will take more than a generation to flush out, but with passenger planes potentially falling out of the sky, FedEX and/or UPS (et. al.) might offer better exposure to air traffic than shares of BA, other airline stocks ... or air traffic itself. I won't sugar coat this one; I track legal insider trades, but I draw the line when life-loving whistleblowers cash out early. Boeing is for diamond hands only . . .
PAY-OFF
Hopefully you find enough value in this unique format to promote it by sharing it, and by asking tough technical questions. My challenge, as ever, is to produce material with a longer shelf than the current thing, which changes from week to week. Therefore, you may expect more cross-referenced content on strategy in this Dossier, and less focus on the superficial details of the news; more how, and less what or why.
Of course, I am still building, and a solid foundation is paramount. This time around, I used Tesla's supply chain issue to highlight two of my central interests, namely Strategic Metals and Jurisdictional Risk. Next time, besides reviewing the midweek news, I will conduct a chart-based discussion of Copper and Silver.
Next weekend, I will discuss prospecting for Volatility in crypto, as well as preview more relevant upcoming earnings reports. In the interim, I hope to publish more supplementary material, some of it theoretical and some of it merely timely.
? adrian dyer, 2024
CAVEAT EMPTOR
This is NOT financial advice. The intention here is to learn from Real-World capital flow how to recognize, measure and profit from the price action of various asset classes in these tense times. Only YOU can select a strategy that suits your temperament, your tolerance for risk and your time horizon, such that no content for public consumption will coincide with your strategy exactly ... assuming that you have a strategy. Participation in financial asset markets is intrinsically risky; long-term profitable navigators agree that you should never risk more buying power than you are willing and able to lose. Also, beware of fraudulent actors. Since counter-party risk is real, strive to learn from your mistakes and others'. Finally and most importantly, what others feel, you will feel, ergo study your emotions carefully, but do not trust them or obey them.