Make it big or go home.
Viacheslav Shirokikh
Founder and CEO of revolutionary startup: Hydrogen Age? | Exploration and production of natural geologic hydrogen worldwide | Lowest cost method of hydrogen production to date | Pilot project in Spain | Join us
Imagine a spaceship being sent to Mars. The tanks are filled with fuel for 10% of the journey. The crew confidently declares: “No problem, we'll figure out where to get gas on the way.” The finale of this mission is obvious - the ship will be stuck in space. But alas, this is exactly what the natural hydrogen industry looks like today.
Dozens of startups have burst into the field with burning eyes and slides full of pretty graphs. Some find dusty old geological reports from oil and gas exploration wells drilled sixty years ago that mention traces of hydrogen, even though the instruments to analyze it simply didn't exist then. Others have drilled a dozen wells, keep silent about the results, but rush to brag about PR-awards. Apparently, they have no other reasons for pride.
But real geological exploration is not a “beautiful report”. It is not about “drilling for luck”. It is a path full of questions and difficult decisions: Where to look? How to prospect? What are the circumstantial signs of hydrogen degassing? What if these are just inconsequential manifestations and not a full-blown commercial hydrogen flow?
Each well is just one point in a huge equation. The solution could take years. But startups inspired by a “green future” somehow believe that you can jump through the steps. This leads to empty claims, unrealistic promises and, most dangerously, a loss of confidence in the industry as a whole.
And if startups are at least trying, investors sometimes surprise me even more. They are confident that venture capital strategies from IT will work just as well in the exploratory geology of natural hydrogen. But exploration is not “fast growth” or an “exponential curve.” It's millions in investment, years of research, and risks that can't be predicted in a couple months.
Imagine the dialogue between the partners on the investment committee of a venture capital fund and the owner of a natural geological hydrogen exploration startup:
- We are ready to allocate 10 million.
- But that's only enough for 6% of the budget. We can't even drill one well with this money!
- That's okay, let them come up with their own ideas. If they survive, we'll join them in the next round.
They are completely indifferent to the statistics of drilling success in areas where no geological exploration has been carried out. And it historically does not exceed 8% even within the framework of detailed work in the oil and gas industry!
Are you serious? It's hard to believe in such naivety of every other investor!
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Well, it doesn't work, so realize that!
Exploration doesn't tolerate compromise. It's like building a bridge out of cardboard boxes, hoping that it will suddenly become concrete. The earth doesn't forgive mistakes. The subsoil reveals its secrets only to those who approach the matter with the utmost seriousness.
And what do the oil and gas giants do? They sit in the shadows. At conferences they talk about the importance of natural hydrogen, but behind the scenes they just wait for someone else to make a breakthrough. Their strategy is simple: don't take the first risk. They look at startups as if they were outlandish animals - if someone happens to have a breakthrough, they will of course be the first to tell everyone that they know what's going on for a long time and will of course immediately try to buy the startup - if the startup lives to see it of course ! An understandable strategy - “dog on a haystack”.
And here I would like to ask: why such loud statements of support for the green transition? Is it to impress shareholders? Or just to ‘save face’? Real progress requires action, not words.
As for the “green transition”, there are many questions here too. Yes, hydrolysis of water sounds beautiful. “Separating water with energy.” But it's an energy-negative process. It takes more energy to produce hydrogen than it can return. And reforming methane is not about the environment at all.
Natural hydrogen is a unique opportunity. It already exists in the subsurface. It should not be produced artificially by artificially tearing apart the molecules of the original substance, but should be professionally searched for and extracted like natural gas. But are startups willing to play the long game? Or will they continue to “drill blind”?
The natural hydrogen industry is a huge puzzle. We can only see the individual pieces, but we need to put it together. That requires more research, more data, more collaboration. But most importantly, more courage.
If you want to change the world, play big. Invest in research, create strategies, not just pretty reports. Natural hydrogen is not just an idea. It's a chance at the greatest new energy discovery for a better future for all of humanity.
Do it big. Or why even start !
Investor | Speaker | Author | Philanthropist | WHU
1 个月Great summary, Viacheslav Shirokikh! I’m always surprised by how many “boy bands” (four well-dressed guys with a flashy PowerPoint) believe they can ride the wave of a new trend with just 40 polished slides. ?? Success in natural hydrogen requires not only perseverance but also deep expertise in managing non-linear project developments without losing momentum. The best geologists, cutting-edge drilling technology, and strong contractual agreements—with both governments and customers—are just as crucial as the hydrogen deposit itself. From my experience in mining projects, the timeline is clear: seven years to find the resource, seven years to develop it, and another seven years to recoup the investment. The good news? In the case of natural hydrogen, if a truly high-yield deposit is discovered, that last phase will likely be much shorter. ?
Driving investment for deeptech leaders | Awareness and networking for startups raising capital | Engineer | LinkedIn Top Voice
1 个月I like to feel that the awareness problem is significant, too. Since the end of November, I set myself the goal of meeting as many hydrogen-adjacent individuals as possible (founders, investors, media, government) and have done quite a good job of it, but most of them are: a) Unaware of natural hydrogen ("What is that, is it like green hydrogen?") b) Or are, at least, unaware of how the industry works ("So we can just dig for it?") This has been a problem, and it also tells me there's something more than just my instinct of "a lack of awareness". It tells me that there is a lack of education. In fact, I would be as brave as to say that the investors already in the space would do well to continue educating themselves on processes and technologies used to validate each exploration opportunity. Then they will realize that there will be big successes, yes, but also massive failures... but that's no different from AI, SaaS or banking, and that the reward will be great if you're willing to assume the risks. Conclusion - it's up to us to not just raise awareness (which hasn't been done well, honestly) but also to educate at every opportunity. This is not a choice. It's an obligation.
Natural Hydrogen
1 个月Great summary. I have a weird feeling that for some, this story is more about funding assignment and distribution, rather than about hydrogen economy and greener future... ...which is fitting quite well into the "It's more important whom you know than what you know" environment... At any rate, we will see if this feeling of mine is true - and rather soon.
A very good summary Viacheslav Shirokikh of the “chicken or the egg” type conundrum facing the field. Funding resource discovery is just the first challenge, then one has to come up with resource/reserves quantification before a project can enter the realm of being financeable.
If you care, it can!
1 个月Well stated!!