A major summit on energy security

Plus, must-read IEA reports coming this autumn; new data and analysis on oil markets; the latest forecasts for global coal demand; our Executive Director speaks in Norway; and more...

A major international energy security summit in London next year?

We will convene an International Summit on the Future of Energy Security in the second quarter of 2025. Hosted by the UK government in London, the IEA event will assess the existing and future risks facing the global energy system and prioritise the solutions and opportunities available for addressing them.?

Our Agency has been at the heart of international energy security for 50 years, helping to avoid, mitigate and manage energy supply disruptions and crises. In recent years, we have supported energy security with key actions. These include during the global energy crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when we twice released emergency oil stocks to ensure market and economic stability and developed a 10-point plan for Europe to reduce its reliance on Russian natural gas.?

The challenges surrounding energy security continue to evolve. While risks around the availability of oil and natural gas show no signs of abating, new threats are also emerging that could significantly hinder affordable energy transitions and undermine the resilience of energy systems if they are not addressed promptly and effectively. This calls for new and enhanced approaches to energy security – fit for today and the decades ahead.?

More information can be found in our news article. And keep an eye on the Summit’s event page (and this newsletter) for future updates.?

Mark your calendars: Key IEA reports coming out this autumn?

This autumn, we’re publishing a string of major reports on crucial energy issues, drawing on our latest data and analysis.?

In early October, we'll release Renewables 2024, our key annual report on the sector. It will feature the latest forecasts and analysis on the deployment of renewable technologies, based on recent policies and market developments, while also exploring key challenges and barriers to faster growth. The report will also include a special chapter on renewable fuels.?

Then, in mid-October, we'll publish our flagship World Energy Outlook for 2024. The WEO, which is the most authoritative global source of energy analysis and projections, identifies and explores the biggest trends in energy demand and supply, as well as what they mean for energy security, greenhouse gas emissions and economic development.?

This will be followed by our Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024. The sixth edition of this report will explore the latest energy developments and trends in the region, whose influence over the global energy system is markedly increasing. The release of the report coincides with the opening of our first Regional Cooperation Centre in Singapore, which will focus on expanding our work with countries in Southeast Asia and beyond.??

And in late October, we will publish Energy Technology Perspectives 2024, which will focus on clean energy technology manufacturing and material production. The report, another flagship IEA publication, will cover today’s trends, as well the outlook for developing secure and resilient supply chains – with new analysis on the role of trade.???

There's much more to come in addition to these reports. For the latest updates, keep an eye on our online events calendar and X account.????

Economic headwinds and electrification are holding back oil demand growth?

Uncertain prospects for the global economy and the adoption of electric vehicles are weighing on the outlook for world oil demand in 2024 and 2025, according to our August Oil Market Report.?

The report sees global oil demand expanding by slightly less than 1 million barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, largely in line with our recent forecasts – though a shift in the forces at work is becoming apparent. Oil demand in advanced economies, especially gasoline demand in the United States, has shown signs of strength in recent months. However, Chinese oil demand contracted for a third consecutive month in June, driven by a slump in industrial inputs, including for the petrochemical sector. Preliminary trade data point to further weakness in July.??

Markets are tight currently, with supply struggling to keep pace with peak summer demand. That is tipping the market into a deficit. But supply looks set to outpace demand in 2025, as non-OPEC+ producers see strong growth in their output.?

Read the highlights and overview of our August Oil Market Report.?

Global coal demand is set to remain broadly flat through 2025?

Global coal demand is expected to remain largely unchanged in both 2024 and 2025 as surging electricity demand in some major economies offsets the impacts of a gradual recovery in hydropower and the rapid expansion of solar and wind, according to our latest update on coal market trends worldwide.?

The world’s use of coal rose by 2.6% in 2023 to reach an all-time high, driven by strong growth in China and India, the two largest coal consumers globally, our Coal Mid-Year Update finds. While coal demand grew in both the electricity and industrial sectors, the main driver was the use of coal to fill the gap created by low hydropower output and rapidly rising electricity demand.?

In China, which accounts for more than half of global coal consumption, electricity generation from renewables is significantly slowing down the growth in coal use in 2024. But strong growth in China’s electricity demand makes a decline in the country’s coal consumption unlikely this year. Meanwhile, in India, coal demand growth is set to decelerate in the second half of 2024 as weather conditions return to seasonal averages.??

Read our press release and the full Mid-Year Update. And stay tuned for the full annual report, Coal 2024, coming in December.?

Highlighting international energy challenges and opportunities in Norway?

Our Executive Director Fatih Birol recently led an IEA delegation to Stavanger, Norway, for the Offshore Northern Seas conference, a major annual event for the international energy sector where he met with leaders from across government and industry.?

This included discussions with Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr St?re – who co-chaired our Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa – Crown Prince Haakon, Energy Minister Terje Aasland, Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, Climate and Environment Minister Andreas Bjelland Eriksen, and European Commissioner Kadri Simson, among others.?

In his keynote speech during the conference's opening plenary, Dr Birol spoke about the latest energy market trends and highlighted Norway’s leadership on energy security, climate and expanding access to clean cooking supplies in Africa.?

Clean energy can help islands build more secure and resilient power systems?

Small and remote islands are subject to an array of energy challenges. They are often isolated from mainland power grids, leading to difficulties in balancing supply and demand. They tend to be heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels, which can lead to high costs and energy security risks. And, despite their limited contributions to global emissions, they are disproportionately affected by the impacts of climate change, including extreme weather events.???

With more than 730 million people living on 11,000 permanently inhabited islands across the world, and with the number of natural disasters rising sharply in recent decades, it is crucial to find answers to these issues and meet the energy needs of island residents in a secure, sustainable and affordable manner.??

Our recent commentary explores one key solution: expanding the deployment of clean energy technologies, including renewables. It notes that leaning into clean energy, while also increasing the efficiency and digitalisation of energy systems, can deliver major benefits. Technologies such as rooftop solar, batteries, microgrids and virtual power plants have particular potential.?

Learn more in our commentary.??

In other news...?

Our Executive Director recently welcomed Secretary Pankaj Agarwal of India's Ministry of Power to our headquarters in Paris. They discussed recent developments in energy markets, as well as India's deepening relationship with the IEA.?

Our new commentary, in collaboration with the Natural Resource Governance Institute, looks at the growing popularity of government-to-government partnerships focused on securing supplies of critical minerals. By making these agreements more concrete and transparent, it notes, governments could send an important signal about how they will ensure that new mining projects are developed responsibly. Read more here.?

Development finance institutions, or DFIs, account for only around 1% of total financing for energy sector investment. But their importance goes well beyond this relatively small share. Our new commentary explores the role of DFIs in accelerating energy transitions – especially when it comes to mobilising private sector spending in emerging and developing economies.?

We recently published two new reports on boosting the resilience of energy systems to mitigate climate-related hazards. One looks at Southeast Asia, while the other focuses on Chile. In both places, the increasing impact of climate change is putting energy security at risk. The reports assesses specific hazards, as well as countries’ readiness to address them.?

ENERGY SNAPSHOT??

As renewable power capacity grows strongly worldwide, electricity generated from technologies such as solar panels and wind turbines is surging. As a result, the amount of electricity produced by renewables globally in 2025 is set to leap above the amount produced by coal for the first time. Another notable trend: global electricity generation from solar PV and wind is expected to surpass that from hydropower for the first time this year. Learn more in our Electricity Mid-Year Update.?

WHAT WE'RE READING & WATCHING:??

• UK to host IEA's key energy security summit in 2025 [Economic Times]?
• IEA's Birol outlines strategy to achieve concrete deliverables at COP29 [Trend News]? ?

• Global coal demand to remain flat this year and next [Reuters]? ?

• Heat pumps could help cut China's building CO2 emissions by 75%, says IEA [Carbon Brief]??
• Ukraine prepares for winter power cuts after Russian attacks on energy sector [Guardian] ?

COMING UP:?

12 September: Oil Market Report?

24 September: COP29-IEA High-Level Energy Transition Dialogue and High-Level Event on Turning Methane Pledges into Action?

Early October: Renewables 2024?

Mid-October: World Energy Outlook 2024?

Late October: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024?

Late October: Energy Technology Perspectives 2024?

Late November: The Future of Geothermal Energy?

5 December: Global Conference on Energy and AI

?