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The current trade-weighted average import tariff rate on industrial goods (which account for 94% of all U.S. non-agricultural merchandise imports) according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump proposed an across-the-board 10%-20% tariff hike for all imports. The aggregate burden of tariffs is generally diffused across importing firms, exporters (who can lower their prices to offset the tariff), and consumers, who might indirectly pay for the tariff through higher prices.

56

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) U.S. services sector purchasing manager’s index (PMI) reading for October, the highest level since July 2022. Readings above 50 in this gauge of activity in domestic services industries indicate expansion, while readings below 50 suggest a contraction. Survey respondents across various industries cited a slower pace of cost increases, strong commercial construction backlogs, and hurricane related rebuilding as drivers of increased activity in recent weeks.

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