Main Geopolitical Dynamics in the Middle East

Undoubtedly, the Middle East is experiencing its most shaky and turbulent era since almost the eruption of the Arab Spring in 2011, and where changes and the intentions to keep the political and geopolitical status quo are two elements colliding currently, which will define this highly strategic region, holder of more than 70% of world oil and gas reserves. Here I want to briefly enumerate the most troubling and defining hotspots happening right now:

Syria: a longstanding civil war seeking to oust Bashar Al Assad, where Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, China and the U.S. are in a fierce clash to keep their spaces of influence, given the geopolitical importance for the region of Syria.

Saudi Arabia: with an aggresively reformist heir to the throne Prince Muhammad bin Salman, now in an ambitious trip to the U.S. and France and after being in London, in order to promote his reformist agenda in the kingdom, but always keeping the kingdom's traditional alliances, and with the country advancing an ambitious energy transition.

Yemen: with an exhausting conflict and a massive humanitarian crisis, threatening to penetrate and further influence political and geopolitical dynamics on saudi soil, now with the rebel group the houthis targetting strategic oil and gas facilities in the KSA with unpredictable consequences for the global oil markets now seen on the behaviour of benchmark prices.

Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, altogether lately drawing most of the attention from the International Oil Companies and National Oil Companies in terms of new oil discoveries and findings, seemingly looking so far as the most stable countries in the Persian Gulf.

Iran: with many uncertainties storming over the nuclear deal with Washington and its overall implications on iranian oil and gas sector, and in the middle of latent instability in the political arena faced by the Rouhani administration.

Libya: whose political and security risks continue to affect and impact continuously its oil output as the country heads to an uncertain presidential elections, with the prospect of some sort of neo Gaddafism of taking over the country if former leader's son gets to achieve victory in the coming electoral process, if ever held.

Lebanon: where political crisis and uncertainties still remain an issue in the region, as it tries to pull ahead with an ambitious bidding process of oil and gas blocks offshore its mediterranean coast, in the middle of a standoff between France, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and Israel to control the fate of this highly sectarian and fragmented country, once dubbed the only democracy in the Middle East.

Israel and Palestine, which once again are witnessing a renewed and fresh wave of violence in Gaza, threatening to prompt a new wave of refugees to neighbouring countries and with strong implications for the region.

Turkey: which is balancing uncertainly and dangerously between its close alliance with Russia and President Erdogan's visible strategy of designing of a new ottomanism as Turkey wants to become a new regional power in the Middle East, with consequences for the future of Europe, the U.S. and also Russia, and which is closely tied to its performance in Syria.

These are currently the most concerning and attention drawing by the global media flashpoints in the Middle East, with impact on global oil prices and other commodities, just as the region as a whole is in a deep debate and collision between traditional and its transition to the modernity, which if not properly harnessed by the ruling monarchies and authoritarian rulers, then it will surely have important results and consequences for the world.