Maiduguri Floods: A Regional Crisis Fuelled by Climate Change and Mismanagement

As of this writing, at least 30 people have lost their lives in the tragic flood that struck Maiduguri on September 10, 2024, and more than a million were affected overall. The economic toll is severe, with around 107,600 hectares of farmland destroyed, potentially leading to significant food scarcity and price hikes in the region in the coming months. This disaster is a stark example of the compounded impacts of climate change and the institutional negligence that has plagued Nigerian public institutions.

The Causes of the Flood

The flooding in Maiduguri was triggered by the overflow and collapse of the Alau Dam spillway. Unrelenting rainfall pushed the dam beyond its storage capacity, resulting in a breach that flooded vast areas of the city, particularly in the Maiduguri Metropolitan Council (MMC) and Jere local government areas (LGAs). The Alau Dam, constructed between 1984 and 1986 to provide water for irrigation and domestic use, breached its banks overnight, affecting over 230,000 people, including those in some internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in Borno State.

So far, access to hospitals, schools, and markets has been severely disrupted. The State Specialist Hospital, the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, and several nutrition stabilization centres treating malnourished children were flooded, forcing evacuations and suspending operations. Damage to bridges and other critical infrastructure has also been recorded, further hampering relief efforts and supply chains. Over 40% of Maiduguri town, with a population of over 870,000, including the Muna and Jere IDP camps, is reportedly covered by flooding.

In a recent commentary I gave on News Central, I asked the question “Since IDP camps remain Nigeria’s go-to preparation for flood, what happens when these camps are flooded?”

The Dam has been a source of flooding for decades, contributing to significant flood incidents in 1992, 1994, and 2019. Despite this wake-up call, rehabilitation efforts led by the Chad Basin Development Authority (CBDA) and the Federal Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation have been more about rhetoric than results. While there have been public statements about expedited efforts to repair the dam, the reality remains bleak. As of October 2023, the procurement processes to assess and repair the damage were still "underway," which is inadequate given the urgency of the situation.

Negligence and Mismanagement

The neglect of the Alau Dam is symptomatic of a broader pattern of mismanagement.

This comes as no surprise, however. The Dasin Hausa Dam, conceived nearly 40 years ago as a solution to manage overflow from the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon, remains incomplete. The Lagdo Dam, built in the early 1980s, releases water annually, causing flooding downstream in Nigeria, affecting about 13 states. To mitigate these floods, Nigeria had agreed to build the Dasin Hausa Dam as a "shock absorber," designed to be two and a half times the size of the Lagdo Dam, capable of generating 300 megawatts of electricity and irrigating 150,000 hectares of land. Yet, this project has been mired in delays and remains unfinished, with the Ministry of Water Resources and Sanitation merely listing it as "ongoing" without significant progress.

It has been two years since the Alau Dam’s collapse, yet meaningful action is still lacking. These delays and half-measures suggest that the lessons from past tragedies have not been learned. Continued failure to complete key infrastructure like the Dasin Hausa Dam only heightens the vulnerability of communities to repeated flooding.

The Budget Paradox

In recent years, budgetary allocations for flood prevention in Nigeria have increased significantly, reflecting an acknowledgement of the problem's scale. In 2022, the government allocated N18.1 billion for erosion and flood control, which was increased to N43.7 billion in 2023—a 141.6% rise intended to prevent future disasters. Additionally, N200 billion was earmarked for ecological funding to prepare for recurrent flooding.

However, these figures hide a grim reality.

Much of the funding is trapped in bureaucratic processes with little visible impact on the ground. Instead of proactive infrastructure upgrades, the focus remains reactive—mobilizing billions in relief aid after disasters have occurred. The Borno State Government has appealed for humanitarian support, and interventions by the UN and other partners are ongoing, focusing on providing shelter, clean water, and food, as well as preventing disease outbreaks in overcrowded IDP camps. While necessary for immediate support, these funds could have been better utilized if there had been a genuine commitment to prevention from the outset.

This is especially evident in the case of the Alau Dam, which has seen repeated allocations for repairs and upgrades with minimal progress. From 2012 to 2024, the Federal Government allocated approximately N762 million for various rehabilitation efforts at the dam. Notable allocations included N285 million in 2020 and N200 million in 2023, aimed at desilting exercises, hydrographical surveys, and rehabilitating the dam's dykes. However, only a portion of these allocations was effectively utilized; in 2023, only N162 million was disbursed for dam repairs, with little transparency about the outcomes. Reports indicate that budget performance, in terms of actual implementation, has been inconsistent, ranging from as low as 37% to just over 70% in some years. Many planned rehabilitation projects remain incomplete, highlighting the systemic issues in managing critical infrastructure projects in Nigeria.

The contrast is stark: funds for relief are readily available after lives are lost and properties destroyed, but the investments meant for preventing such tragedies are frequently mismanaged or poorly utilized. If the allocated budgets for flood control had been used effectively for proactive infrastructure upgrades, like sewage system improvements, regular desilting of waterways, and robust early warning systems, many of these disasters could have been avoided altogether.

The persistent failure to implement these preventative measures and the lack of accountability for negligence in public service is costing Nigeria dearly—not just economically, but in human lives.

Climate Change, Rapid Urbanization, and Human Actions

Climate change is a significant factor in the scale of the disaster seen in Maiduguri, marked by more intense and frequent rainfall that exceeded the dam's capacity and overwhelmed the city’s drainage systems. However, climate change alone did not cause this disaster; human actions played a significant role too. Maiduguri’s population more than doubled from about 1 million in 2006 to over 2.5 million in 2024, largely due to internally displaced persons (IDPs) fleeing Boko Haram. This rapid urban growth has led to uncontrolled sprawl into natural floodplains.

The map above (provided by my good friends at MaxLock Nigeria ) shows Maiduguri’s development density along the waterway in 2006 versus 2024. In this period, Maiduguri's population more than doubled, from about 1 million in 2006 to over 2.5 million in 2024. The built-up areas have expanded by almost 200%, often at the expense of natural water absorption systems like wetlands. This encroachment has reduced the landscape's natural capacity to absorb excess water, exacerbating the flooding risk. These changes, compounded by climate change-induced extreme weather events, highlight the urgent need for integrated climate adaptation strategies, improved urban planning, and sustainable infrastructure investment to mitigate future disasters.

Interconnected Regional Impacts

It’s also worth noting that the flooding disaster in Maiduguri may have been compounded by record-breaking floods in neighboring regions. The recent flood in Libya in 2023, driven by Storm Daniel, showed how wind currents and water flows can carry extreme weather events across borders, affecting downstream regions far from their origin. As floodwaters move downstream from upstream regions in Cameroon and through Adamawa, they likely increase water levels in tributaries feeding into the Ngadda River, which the Alau Dam impounds. This interconnectedness of natural systems serves as a stark reminder that climate events do not recognize borders; our shared vulnerability calls for collective action and stronger regional cooperation to build resilience against the increasingly severe impacts of climate change.

What's the Way Forward?

The recent floods in Maiduguri underscore the urgent need for a comprehensive, multi-layered approach to disaster risk reduction, climate adaptation, and infrastructure management. To move forward effectively, Nigeria must address both immediate and long-term challenges, focusing on accountability, sustainable development, and regional cooperation.

1. Strengthening Accountability in Public Service: The first step is to establish stronger mechanisms for holding public servants and government agencies accountable for negligence and mismanagement. Given the history of underutilized budgets and incomplete projects, there must be a commitment to transparency and accountability in public works.
2. Infrastructure Overhaul and Maintenance: Beyond temporary fixes, there is a need for a systemic overhaul of critical infrastructure. This includes not only dams and drainages but also the broader water management systems that sustain vulnerable regions. Upgrading sewage systems, retrofitting homes in flood-prone areas, and building resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding extreme weather events are critical. A shift from reactive to proactive planning will save lives and reduce economic losses.
3. Sustainable Urban and Environmental Planning: Effective urban planning must go beyond infrastructure and integrate administrative efficiency and city management structures. Nigeria needs to consider city administration as a strategic path to achieving rapid and sustainable development. Establishing specialized city management bodies, with clear mandates and resources, can ensure that urban growth is well-regulated, environmentally sustainable, and resilient to climate change.
4. Strengthening Social Protection Systems: Establishing robust social protection systems that provide immediate support to vulnerable populations affected by disasters is essential. An example is the Pan-African Climate Response Service (PACRS) being piloted by the Center for Climate Action Innovation and Engagement (CCAIE) , which could serve as a model for integrated disaster preparedness and recovery, combining early warning systems, community-based insurance pools, and localized emergency response mechanisms to build resilience among the most affected communities.
5. Regional Cooperation and Integrated Water Management: Understanding that climate events do not recognize borders, there is a need for stronger regional cooperation in managing shared water resources and responding to climate impacts. The flooding in Libya in 2023, driven by Storm Daniel, demonstrated how interconnected weather systems could influence regions far from their origin. Similarly, Nigeria must collaborate more closely with neighboring countries like Cameroon to manage shared rivers and watersheds effectively. This collaboration should focus on transboundary water management agreements, joint monitoring of river basins, and coordinated disaster response mechanisms.
6. Capacity Building at Local Levels: Strengthening the capacity of local governments to plan, implement, and manage disaster risk reduction strategies is vital. This includes providing technical training for local officials, developing community-based early warning systems, and ensuring the availability of necessary resources for effective response and recovery.

Conclusion

My heart goes out to the victims of the Maiduguri flood, who have lost their homes, livelihoods, and loved ones in this tragic disaster. The scale of this devastation is immense, and while it is important to discuss policies and long-term strategies, we must not forget the immediate needs of those affected. If you can help, I urge you to consider donating to support the ground efforts currently underway in Maiduguri and surrounding areas. Your contribution can make a meaningful difference in providing shelter, food, medical care, and other essential services to those who need it most.

The path forward for Nigeria involves moving beyond short-term fixes and toward sustainable, long-term strategies that address the root causes of vulnerabilities. By holding leaders accountable, investing in resilient infrastructure, fostering regional cooperation, and engaging communities, Nigeria can turn the tide against future disasters. As climate change continues to pose new challenges, the choices made today will determine whether we remain at the mercy of such disasters or build a future where communities are prepared, protected, and resilient.