Maia Sandu will probably win Moldova's presidential election, as she should, and the pro-EU referendum will pass

Maia Sandu will probably win Moldova's presidential election of October 20 (and the second round on November 3, unless she will win the first), as she should, and the pro-EU referendum of October 20 will pass. She deserves to win, and the opinion polls show her as the front-runner (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Moldovan_presidential_election ). In the latest (or maybe I should say, in one of the latest) opinion poll, she had 36.1% of the votes and Alexandr Stoianoglo, the pro-Russian and corrupt ethnic Gagauz former general prosecutor, had only 10.1%. In the second round, she was also ahead, though there are no polls of her against Stoianoglo, but only against the former Socialist president Igor Dodon. Her achievements and those of the PAS team include Moldova starting the negotiations to join the European Union, the official labelling of Moldova's official language as Romanian (not "Moldovan"), the final break with "the evil empire" (Russia) as well as salary and pension increases, the improvement of relations with Romania and the assertion of Romanian ethnic identity within the context of Moldovan citizenship. She and her team also successfully pressured Ukraine, together with Romania, so that the "Moldovan language schools" in the Odessa region would become again "Romanian language schools". In effect, she and her team declared Moldova as one of the two Romanian states (I wouldn't call it the second Romanian state, because of the implication of inferiority to Romania). My grandfather's uncle, a member of Sfatul Tarii who voted for union with Romania on March 27, 1918, was saying privately that Bessarabia/Moldova by joining Romania, is making Romania not only greater, but also better, including in terms of universal suffrage and a generous land reform. There was merit to what he was saying, and his vote for the union was the right one.

One could also note that she has tried to fight against corruption and the reform of the judiciary. However, let me be frank and say that what she and PAS have done will not necessarily help very much. Corruption has decreased a bit, but the judges might need to be elected for a more substantial decrease in the corruption of the judiciary.

It is noteworthy that Maia Sandu, a center-right politician, is more popular among men than women. This is partly because men are more right-wing than women (and she is a center-right politician), but it is also because she is so ... good-looking. That plus her intelligence, honesty, and commitment to Western values and Moldova's EU membership has helped her in dealing with Western leaders. Just as Bessarabia/Moldova joining Romania made interwar Romania better, Moldova joining the European Union could make the European Union better in terms of principle and peace, if not power or prosperity.

Maia Sandu has also criticized Russia for the Russian domination and occupation of Transnistria without provoking Russia. There is both art and science to this, and it was done reasonably well.

Most of the population of Moldova, a significant majority, wants to join the European Union. The victory of the pro-EU referendum, and the codification of the pro-EU line in the constitution will make it harder for people such as the probable American vice-president J.D. Vance (Trump's vice-presidential candidate) to try to force Moldova to abandon its efforts to join the European Union .It was smart for the second round of the election to be held before the American election of November 5. A Trump victory in the American election could lead to a bandwagoning behind the pro-Russian presidential candidate in Moldova.

There is also another issue. Russian diplomats in developing countries have suggested that the votes for the pro-Russian candidates in Moldova for parties are not merely an option for a more balanced or pro-Russian policy, but for becoming a part of Russia. This, just like at the time of Bessarabia's union with Romania in 1918, is not the time for nuance, or for a solution in the middle, but for decisiveness. The vote is a choice between Europe and Russia, and one can't choose both.

All the best,

Ionas Aurelian Rus