Mahsa's revolution

Today marks the one-year anniversary of Mahsa's Revolution. This courageous young Kurdish Iranian woman met a brutal end at the hands of the so-called morality police for defying Iran's strict dress code for women. Her tragic death ignited several months of protests, primarily led by young Iranians who had grown weary of the oppressive regime. These protests resulted in tens of thousands being subjected to violence, blindness, imprisonment, or death. This movement has since evolved into a larger cause in Iran, now widely known as the Women, Life, Freedom Movement, or Mahsa's Revolution.

So, what does the situation look like a year later? Are we returning to business as usual, or could the days of the Islamic Republic's tyranny be numbered? The answer is a resounding and unequivocal YES! Here's why:

1. The Islamic Republic has utterly failed to redefine itself in a way that could regain the trust of even a substantial minority of the population, including its core supporters. When I left Iran in 1994, more than half of the population still believed in the lofty ideals of the 1979 Islamic Revolution or held hope that the Islamic Republic would eventually deliver on its promise of an ideal Islamic society. Now, even those in the inner circles of power have lost faith in the existing system's ability to fulfill its promises. Some influential religious figures within Iran have begun advocating for the separation of religion from politics to salvage what remains of religiosity in the country.
2. The narrative of the 1979 Islamic revolution, centered on the slogan "Independence, Freedom, Islamic Republic", suggested that only the Islamic Republic could provide independence from Western influence and freedom from the Shah's tyranny. While some believed this narrative and it fueled the 1979 revolution, today, 44 years later, they have no new story to tell. It is widely recognized in Iran that the Islamic Republic is neither independent (given its ties to Russia and China) nor a source of freedom. In fact, it has become one of history's most oppressive regimes. It has never truly functioned as a republic, and its Islamic character has eroded. This situation parallels the decline of the Holy Roman Empire, which, in its later stages, was neither holy nor Roman and certainly not an empire. The top tiers of the Islamic Republic now appear intellectually bankrupt, and the common perception in Iran is that the country is being ravaged by a corrupt, mafia-like, power-hungry, self-righteous, and self-serving regime, even despised by religious segments. The unintended de-Islamification of Iran, carried out by the Islamic Republic itself, would have been inconceivable under a secular and democratic government. By promoting its reprehensible behavior as the pinnacle of Islamic virtue over the past 44 years, the Islamic Republic has catalyzed the secularisation process in Iran.
3. The Islamic Republic has shown itself utterly inept at addressing Iran's most pressing issues, including water scarcity, power outages, an energy crisis, unaffordable food prices, and double-digit inflation rates year after year. Not only are there no solutions in sight, but it seems that these problems are worsening with each passing day. The regime's fixation on enforcing strict dress codes for women only drains resources that could have been used to provide essential public services.

So, what does the future hold? Will we witness a complete collapse, perhaps civil wars and competing separatist movements locked in endless strife? This is the ominous narrative the Islamic Republic's propaganda machine employs to deter the spread of Mahsa's Revolution among the broader Iranian public. Or could we envision a future where Iran thrives as a secular, democratic nation, integrated as a positive and welcome member of the international community?

The answer remains uncertain, hanging in the winds of change. It could go either way, or perhaps it will find its place somewhere in between. What is crystal clear, though, is the shared aspiration of Iranians both within the country and among the diaspora, numbering 8-10 million strong. We yearn for a future where Iran flourishes as a beacon of secular democracy. The key lies in our ability to think critically and act decisively; it is our collective will that will ultimately shape Iran's path forward.