Magic Leap Is Magic, But Not As Much of a Leap As Hoped

Several times over the past few years, we’ve written about the secretive augmented reality startup, Magic Leap, which has raised big money from technology giants, including Alphabet [NASDAQ: GOOG], and from the Saudi sovereign wealth fund. “Virtual reality” (VR) headsets, such as Facebook’s Oculus, mask external reality entirely and place users completely within a computer-generated visual field; the Oculus headset resembles a windowless SCUBA mask.

On the other hand, “augmented reality” (AR) headsets, including Microsoft’s Hololens [NASDAQ: MSFT], project computer-generated images within the user’s field of vision, but don’t block out the real world.  

Generally, analysts believe that AR technologies have greater immediate promise than VR for commercial application beyond gaming. Ultimately, AR technologies promise the liberation of computing into what Magic Leap refers to as “spatial computing.” The goal is that interaction with technology will no longer be focused in a tangible device, and users will have a seamless sense that the totality of their perceptual sphere is integrated with their experience of computer applications.  

Any moviegoers who remember the computer interfaces from The Minority Report will have an idea of where Magic Leap is trying to go -- and indeed, the designer of that movie’s futuristic tech was hired by Magic Leap early in their development process. You can take a look at the movie’s vision here.

Magic Leap One, the newly released developer version of the long-awaited headset, had been hyped because of advanced “light field” technologies that would make its projections more convincingly realistic. The reviews of the new device have been pretty consistent. It is definitely a step forward, but it is not a “leap” into a seamless, immersive, fully convincing AR future.

Source: NewsATW

The computational workhorse for the headset is in a wired unit clipped to the user’s belt, driven by an Nvidia chipset [NASDAQ: NVDA]. As a result, the headset is lighter and according to reviewers, more comfortable than others -- easily worn for several hours without discomfort.  The main complaint is similar to one voiced concerning other AR headsets as well: the limited field of vision. While images are realistic, and interact realistically with solid objects in the user’s field of vision, the headset still gives users the impression of “looking through a window” -- that is, augmented reality is visible only within a given area, and disappears in the periphery beyond it, almost as if you were holding a smartphone up to your face. Overcoming this limitation remains one of the key obstacles in creating the seamless, immersive AR that techies are hankering for.

In the meantime, Magic Leap One will certainly have a lot of impressive and fun applications. They’ve partnered with Wayfair [NYSE: W] for an AR shopping experience that will let you place furniture very realistically into the room you’re looking at. You’ll be able to place virtual screens onto walls in the room in which you’re sitting for comfortable movie viewing. And the applications for “telepresencing” will also be impressive, when a coworker on the other side of the country can appear convincingly to be standing in front of you and speaking to you. All that granted, though, this is just a step -- not quite the leap that tech junkies were hoping for.

Investment implications: Augmented reality still has the promise to be the next major step in human-device interfaces. As with smart speakers, it is moving in the direction of “disappearing devices,” where the locus of the interface essentially disappears into the user’s perceptual sphere. For now, though, progress towards this goal is still gradual -- and investors seeking access to the theme are best advised to focus their attention on the big tech leaders, including Alphabet [NASDAQ: GOOG], Facebook [NASDAQ: FB], and Microsoft [NASDAQ: MSFT] who are either conducting or funding the most cutting-edge AR research.

Please note that principals of Guild Investment Management, Inc. (“Guild”) and/or Guild’s clients may at any time own any of the stocks mentioned in this article, and may sell them at any time. Currently, Guild’s principals and clients own FB and GOOG. In addition, for investment advisory clients of Guild, please check with Guild prior to taking positions in any of the companies mentioned in this article, since Guild may not believe that particular stock is right for the client, either because Guild has already taken a position in that stock for the client or for other reasons.