The MAG Commentary - 072823
Patrick O'Connell
Check out my LinkedIn Newsletter for info on how my digital content sizzles- to include info on my awesome Market Algo NL that forecasts the S&P500 weekly trends!
The MAG Commentary:?072823
Market Weekly Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries
Patrick OConnell, editor
I?am not an investment advisor.?Any financial information is for educational purposes only – NOT investment advice!
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Featured in the Commentary Section:
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Full Spectrum Survival- Is this the Big Rally in Markets - BEFORE the rug pull- aka The Big Collapse?-Hyper Inflation is here to stay, folks!-GLOBAL!-RUSSIAN ALERT. SCARY IF TRUE. THEY WILL STARVE THE WORLD TO WIN THIS WAR.
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Previous ad I posted – when the podcast was created weekly:
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url for the weekly S&P 500 market forecast:
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Highly recommended publication – Please subscribe – its free!?---?Patrick
Get the latest weekly updates in Inflated World – or get left behind – Ignorance is NOT bliss:
Inflation is happening worldwide, especially harming developing nations. You might be worried about your investments, the economy, or even how people cope with inflation.
Inflated World is a simple way to stay up-to-date on what is happening worldwide - they send you personal anecdotes of people experiencing inflation from over 10 countries (Sri Lanka, Ecuador, Kenya, Ghana, etc.) and weekly macroeconomic analyses. It's free to sign up - so why not give it a go?
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Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends, Risk on, or Risk off, for the upcoming trading week ending on 08/04/2023:
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The SPY(SPDR, S&P500 ETF), is Trending?UPWARD - PLUS 4.74 for the past week ending on 07/28/2023.
In our opinion – not investment advice – The Bulls (Thank you Federal Reserve and related manipulation of the markets) – yet again - WILL rule for the trading week ending 08/04/2023!
No surprise to my loyal subscribers – that the machinations of the Central Banks and the Fed – have yet again - continued to rearrange the deck chairs on the StockMarket Titanic (SM Titanic)!
?Be Aware – Be Awesome –
To not miss out on the rapid changes in market trends – subscribe to our weekly MAG Newsletter!
For the upcoming trading week, ending on 08/04/2023, our proprietary algo forecasts the following potential trend for each of the following metrics – either Bullish or Bearish:
VIX index:?Bullish!
VVIX index:?Bullish!
SPY index:?Bullish!?- swing traders and day traders –
?Take Note of This!
West Texas Intermediate – Crude Oil:?Bullish!
QQQ:?Bearish!
Copper:?Bearish!
And of course, the VIX – SPY Correlation Variance” – Right on cue – Bullish! –
???????????????????????Conservative traders & “Investors” – Take Note of This!
Yet one more (ongoing) Sucker Rally – Continues!
?This one could last for weeks – if not months- IMHO. The higher it goes--- The harder it falls!
So what??
So for the next week – the ongoing Bear market will yet again – witness one of the sucker rallies- that continues to torment the Perma bears – that remain short!
Be nimble in trading this market- You do NOT want to be a bag holder when yet another rally comes to an end- which it surely will!
Our conclusion for the week ahead is that – our algo indicates that the Bulls - least for the week ahead – are yet again in control.
The Takeaway:
Typically – in a Presidential year election cycle – some analysts say that the stock market “MUST” – “look good” to ensure the sheeple have the illusion that “it’s all good”. ?So – expect the periodic “rally” to manifest from time to time.
Our SPY-VIX Correlation Variation metric -?– confirms ?- at least from a purely technical point of view (notwithstanding “manipulation” monkey business) - this coming week’s underlying bearish leanings!?
In our opinion massive global bank runs are still ongoing- notwithstanding the massive printing of fiat money to “stem the run on banks”.
Some analysts say that QE, or Qualitative Easing continues - at least for the banks!
This is – of course - NOT investment advice – but fasten your seat belts - a bumpy ride awaits!
Swing traders and day traders will make money – the traders that are not nimble will be crushed, in our opinion!
For the past few months, we have been saying that we are entering a global depression, not so much a recession!
Dan – at iAllegedly – on his YouTube channel -?is sharing that the “D” word may be more likely than a mere recession!
More analysts and bankers are now forecasting the coming of a depression – NOT a recession!
What do YOU think?
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The “Markets” – Disconnected from the Reality of “Main Street”?
We agree with other analysts, that the equity markets are completely disconnected from the reality of the collapsing economies of many countries around the planet!
When we have a bullish week as we experience – intermittently – during this epic bear market - it demonstrates - that Wall Street is oblivious to the pain being felt by Main Street! Indeed – this disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street is growing – a LOT!
We continue to think – that when a rally occurs – that it is nothing more than just another sucker’s bull rally in the ongoing bear market!
My Final Takeaway:
These sucker rallies can last for weeks at a time- during a Bear Market!?When the rug pull comes – as it inevitably WILL - the result will be a dramatic decline in the market indexes – in our opinion of course!
More and more analysts are forecasting a catastrophic commercial real estate crash!?All we can say is “you have been warnded”!
We do not think we have seen the bottom.
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Keep in mind, Volatility is still very much with us!
Indeed, The Bear Market is still very much still with us!
We always like to see at least a 3, or greater week period - in which the market is in a bull trend before we can determine a potential bottom for the market!
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Be careful in trading for the next one to three weeks, – AND MORE!
It’s a jungle out there!
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More details – and –
Our Full Disclosure:
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This analysis is not investment advice.
We are not investment advisors!
Any financial information is for educational purposes only, not investment advice!
领英推荐
The global hyperinflation, the global supply chain dislocations, and of course… global drought, plus the “wars,” (take your pick: …Ukraine, Russia, China),…all of these negative factors are certainly not helpful for the bulls’ case!
Please note,?Concerning our “VIX, SPY correlation-variance ” metric,
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IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP,?for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our?VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,… for the upcoming week,…
This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, only?happens,…currently,…on a very infrequent basis!...
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As Doug Casey said in a recent interview, we are in a chaotic period in global markets!…
One analyst shared that bear markets may have 7 bull runs during the course of a bear market.
We may yet have a long way to go before we reach the bottom of this market!
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Reminder:
Daniel?Riley –Mr.TopStep:?https://mrtopstep.com ?provides daily updates ?on the markets:?
His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!!??—Patrick
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Commentary for 07/28/2023:
I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn!?
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
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Published on YouTube:??07/27/2023
Stretch them and squeeze them.
There is a general increase in Ukrainian activity on the front lines from Zaporitzhzhia all the way north to Luhansk. Ukrainian forces are slowly closing the flanks on Bakhmut city and there is a genuine risk that a large number of Russian troops will be cut off there if they are forced to hold their ground. There are small but steady advances in the south through the deep Russian defences. A Russian counter attack was halted in Luhansk and there are other minor advances along the front but still no significant breakthrough.
The Russian lines are being stretched and squeezed. With no idea where a Ukrainian force concentration will take place they stay in their trenches and hope to deal with whatever comes their way (they can't). Pulled, pushed and bombed with no sense of achievement it must be soul destroying to be a in a Russian trench
As soon as Russian armour or infantry move they are identified by radar and targeted by artillery. Ukraine has developed a tactic of baiting Russian artillery to fire, quickly identifying the source with radar and drones and then destroying the guns before they can move or if they move quickly a drone will follow and bring fire down on them. Russian artillery losses in the past three weeks have increased substantially. The new cluster ammunition supplied by the USA is assisting in mine clearing and in preventing Russian infantry moving across open ground. Early reports indicate that these weapons might be the reason for the limited success Ukraine has begun to experience.
The attacks on Ukrainian ports is a concern for the shipping of grain and of course for the local populations but it is not damaging Ukraine's military forces on the front lines. Air defences will adjust and respond but the fighting is in the east. It will not matter how many missiles Russia shoots into the Ukrainian rear if Russia's army cannot find a way to hold onto what they have stolen.
Stretch them and squeeze them, eventually something must snap|!
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares.
Robin Horsfall
If you support my work go to?robinhorsfall.info?and consider purchasing one of my books.
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Former SAS Soldier. Leadership in every environment. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Inspiring Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
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FYI:??I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND?connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
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On to the “Main Event”:
I post the URL for each news item I share in my?REDDIT blog post -?if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.?
Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments!?-?Patrick
Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
New stuff:
Featured:
Full Spectrum Survival- Is this the Big Rally in Markets - BEFORE the rug pull- aka The Big Collapse?-Hyper Inflation is here to stay, folks!-GLOBAL!-RUSSIAN ALERT. SCARY IF TRUE. THEY WILL STARVE THE WORLD TO WIN THIS WAR.
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More breaking events:
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Patrick Humphrey- Over 30,000 people laid off- Big News- the 1st Domino to Fall?-URGENT WARNING?? 30,000+ Walmart & Home Depot Truckers HAVE STOPPED -Stores PANIC | prepping shtf
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Stephen Gardner - Dramatic Economic Beatdown coming - SOON!-Stephen Gardner and Todd Horwitz discuss the Fed raising rates, inflation remaining sticky, the stock market bounce back but how it will go lower and how America feels like a recession even though the government defends we are not in one.
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Alaska Prepper- Huge Heat Wave - Now affecting one of the Largest Power Grids in America- VERY Serious!-Largest Power Grid In The U S Declares Emergency Alert - More Than 65 Million Affected!
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Redacted-Klaus Schwab's WEF plan to implant CBDC's in your hand is coming to fruition. We’ll give you a universal basic income of 2,000 euros or 2,000 dollars a month if you allow us to put a microchip in your hand? That’s exactly what’s about to happen as part of the roll out of the central bank di
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Colonel Douglas Macgregor-(USArmy-retd)-Straight Calls---Where is the off-ramp? What is the exit strategy/ I hear crickets!-Patrick OConnell--U.S. Boots On The Ground https://www.reddit.com/r/EndUkrainianGenocide/comments/15arcxo/colonel_douglas_macgregorusarmyretdstraight/
Poplar Refinery-Gas Supplies are getting worse day by day. Bad policies and environmental rules prevent new refineries from digging us out of the hole we're in. -Subscribe For Daily Breaking News & Shortage Updates / @thepoplarreport -Genesis Gold Group | https://genesisgoldgroup.com/ 1-800-
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More breaking news is posted on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - -?Patrick
Go here:
Stay tuned for the next issue!
Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
Thank you for following my MAG Commentary!
Patrick
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We also publish a weekly newsletter on Substack:?The Market Algo Newsletter – It forecasts the direction of the S&P 500 market?- index for the upcoming week – and global geopolitical commentaries -
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Don’t miss Luna Maypole’s latest Chapter of
“NM-Kitty’s Meow Adventures” (written in the style of A.A. Milne – creator of the Winnie the Pooh Adventures):
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Don’t miss Chapter 13:?Paws of Justice -?Adventures in Kuwait -
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My NM-Kitty YouTube Playlist is located here –
check it out today:
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Find “NM-Kitty” on page 1 of “Google Search”!
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FYI - I use the pen name, Luna Maypole ---?Patrick OConnell
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Have you followed Aleph and Omega – My protagonists in my short story fictional series “The Fellowship of Dreams”?
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The latest chapter (written in the style of #Tom Clancy) -
Is located at Lampshade of Illumination - here:
Don’t miss Part 13:??Unmasking the Secret Society in Ukraine’s Underground -
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