The MAG Commentary: 06/24/2022
Patrick O'Connell
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The MAG Commentary:?06/24/2022
Market Weekly Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries
Patrick OConnell, editor
I?am not an investment advisor.?Any financial information is for educational purposes only – NOT investment advice!
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Our proprietary market also forecasts the following trends (Risk-on or Risk-off) for the week ending 07/01/2022:
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Full Disclosure:
An analysis published is not investment advice!
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The SPY(SPDR S&P500 ETF) is Trending?Upward(plus 24.22??Week-over-Week)- ?for the Week ending 07/01/2022
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Risk-on?(Bullish):
These metrics are Risk-on(bullish) for the next week:
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SPY, VIX, VVIX QQQ, VVIX
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Volatility is still with us – be forewarned!
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The ?global hyper-inflation, the global supply chain dislocations, and of course – the?war --?all of these negative factors are certainly not helpful for the bulls’ case.?
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Risk-off?(Bearish):?
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WTI -Crude,?Copper,?VIX-SPY Variance-Correlation
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WTI-crude, VIX, VVIX, QQQ, SPY
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A cautionary note to keep in mind (IMHO we are not yet seeing a confirmed bottom in the market) -?as Doug Casey said in a recent interview -?we are in a chaotic period in global markets.
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Conclusion:
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For next week, the algo indicates that the Bulls are in control.
The Bears are on the sidelines.?We’ll see how long they remain in hibernation!??
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Some say we are entering a global depression – not so much a recession.?What do YOU?think?
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Oh yes, how do you spell “Bear Trap”??We’ll see what next week brings in the way of the trending of the financial markets!
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Doug Casey opines that we are indeed headed to the big “D”!?He forecasts a bond market collapse and a stock market crash.???He recommends the intermediate size oil companies.?NOT the big ones!
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?Casey likes uranium stocks as well. He says he is long uranium stocks.
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Interestingly, he likes the Uzbekistan stock market.?I would NOT recommend investing there – unless you do your extensive due diligence.?He mentioned it would be sort of a “lotto play” – Very risky!
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IMHO I do not think we have seen the bottom – I always like to see at least a 3 week period in which the market is in a bull trend.?Even then, the market can still sustain a bull trap or a so-called head fake for a prolonged period.?Be careful in trading for the next one to two weeks!
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I am tracking the weekly price movement of QQQ during 2022:
So, Moving forward, QQQ was a hypothetical “Buy” on 01/03/2020 at $401.68.?IMHO this correction of QQQ remains in an indefinite period of profound weakness! No sign of a definitive bottom from this point moving forward!
Each week, I indicate the profit or loss, based on this (pretend) entry point.?Let’s see where it ends up at the end of 2022!
As of 06/24/2022, this hypothetical trade shows a loss of $ 107.07 ??(QQQ was $294.61 at the close on 06/24/2022).
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Reminder: Daniel?Riley –Mr. TopStep:?https://mrtopstep.com ?provides daily updates on the markets:?His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!!??—Patrick
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Let’s jump on a call soon!?- Patrick
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--- Patrick
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Important Note - to everyone:
I have a source (President/CEO of a US nationwide Truckers Association for Women) – who has kindly offered caseloads of dolls – to be donated to NGOs and/or Ukrainian Resettlement organizations.?Scientific research has indicated that “doll therapy” and children/the elderly can benefit in many ways by “bonding” with a stuffed animal or a doll./?
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I am open to anyone that has a serious interest in this generous offer (10 dolls to a case) – to DM me.?We can hop on a call (Tuesday-Friday: 10 am Mountain Time – 4:00 pm Mountain Time) to discuss/provide contact information.
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“First come – first serve” as they say, or “You snooze – you lose”.
Supply may be limited.
May I hear from you soon??-?Patrick (LinkedIn ID - azpat0)
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You can contact me through my profile as well:
Patrick OConnell
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I have joined an awesome YouTube group - ?“UkraineNow” – I shall share links to some of our 3 times per week meetups in The MAG Commentary - check this group out by inputting “UkraineNow Community Meeting” in YouTube’s search link.
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FYI:
I have contacts worldwide that subscribe to my MAG Commentary NL (Market Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries" and my Substack Market Algo NL:
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--- Patrick
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NOTE:?I am currently working as a copywriter for:
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I shall include a few links in each MAG Commentary newsletter with the focus on:?“Homesteading & Sustainable Agriculture” Videos.?IMHO this may be appropriate, given the current volatility in the economic, geopolitical, and ongoing volatility of global ecosystems, and cultural transformations/upheavals. ?
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Commentary for 06/24/2022:
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I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn!?One of these follows- very “spot-on::
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Is It Already Too Late?
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Feed post
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When a victim stands up to a bully the interaction is fascinating to observe. Before the moment of resistance the bully has anticipated that his behaviour will produce his desired effect. He will threaten, then his victim will submit.
When his victim resists, our bully is forced to make new decisions. If he resorts to violence there are unknown consequences. He might get hurt or lose. Unsure of the result he raises the level of threat attempting to elevate fear levels. When the victim's resolve is unshaken he returns to the same question. Should I fight?
Unsure, the bully redirects and blames a third smaller party. If on the other hand he attacks and hurts his victim, he still loses. The victim has shown courage and will be admired even in defeat.
This scene is being acted out in Ukraine at the moment. Putin raises the rhetoric and redirects his attention towards Latvia and Lithuania. He rants about 'serious consequences' but the new kids have already seen the worst he can do. They reply 'Show me what you've got. We're not frightened!'
Can Putin walk away promising dire consequences and retain some of his power? Will he risk losing it all - or is it already too late?
Slava Ukraini, Slava Latvijai, ?lov? Lietuvai
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
?Activate to view larger image
· 4,496
· 440 comments
· 375 shares
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I found this excerpt from The Financial Times (Swamp Notes) to be most prescient of what is- what will be- and what it means for everyone on the planet---?IMHO it is indeed the “shadow of things to come”:
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Source:
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The west is failing to quarantine Russia
The region is missing a big underlying reality in the global reaction to Putin’s barbarism
Author:?Edward Luce – June 24, 2022
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Excerpt:
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of the most frustrating aspects of America’s Ukraine debate is its degree of self-deception about global unity. The assumption is false. Vladimir Putin is hated and feared by most of the west, just as Volodymyr Zelenskyy is lionised. But the west has not been joined by most of the rest. When Indonesia hosts the G20 summit in November, Putin will be there in spite of Washington’s demand that Russia be expelled. Only four out of 55 African leaders attended Zelenskyy’s virtual address to the African Union, which had finally agreed he could speak to them after 10 weeks of asking. Not every summit is a western movie festival, where Zelenskyy has become a staple. And not everyone shares the US foreign policy establishment’s view that Putin is waging an existential war on democracy. I do not need convincing of the dark consequences of Putin’s late imperial agenda, nor of the necessity that he fails. But I’m not an Indian diplomat, an African consumer, or a Latin American energy importer. The west is not the world, and the world is not the west. It is astonishing such a truism has to be emphasised. Here is rule number one of my unwritten primer on global diplomacy: Avoid navel-gazing. Good diplomacy sees things from other points of view and takes them into consideration. I fear that the US and the west in general are missing a big underlying reality in the global reaction to Putin’s barbarism: the Ukraine war is boosting demand for a multipolar world, which is very different to what we have been telling ourselves. Most of the non-west craves strategic autonomy. They may be upset by the images from Bucha and Mariupol, just as we are troubled by footage of ethnic cleansing in Myanmar or bombed out cities in Syria. That doesn’t mean they will suspend their interests to stop it from happening, any more than we do when others cry out for help. To much of the world, Ukraine is just another humanitarian tragedy. The fact that the west sees it as existential is an irritation. Africans and Arabs and Latin Americans know that when there is a clash between US ideals and interests, the latter generally win. We should be wary of judging those who make similar trade-offs. The world feels the Ukraine war primarily in two ways — higher food and energy prices. Following a pandemic in which emerging market growth collapsed and in which their debt to GDP ratios soared, inflation in basic staples is the last thing they need. If you add in rising US interest rates, we have the makings of the next emerging market payments crisis and rising political instability. We cannot blame countries such as India and Brazil for buying discounted Russian oil. Nor should we be surprised that there are plenty of takers for Russian grain. The fact that Putin is both blocking Ukrainian grain exports, and stealing what he can get his hands on, is a brutal reflection on Moscow’s ethics. But it does not alter others’ calculation. Hard economics trumps gauzy moralism. Joe Biden, after all, is about to travel to Saudi Arabia to press it for more oil production. This rips up two supposedly core tenets of Biden administration — reducing fossil fuels and shunning pariah autocracies. The west’s speedy decoupling from Russia is bumping up against geopolitical limits. Countries such as China and India are helping create alternative payments systems and transportation routes for Russian commodities. They are also blocking western attempts to eject Russia from the multilateral system. The west’s best response to this would be to provide the kind of largesse to emerging markets on which China has long since taken the lead. Washington ought to spearhead efforts to boost global food security, arrange emerging market debt restructurings, and license Covid vaccine production (or better still, suspend patents) around the world. If we want the rest to follow us against Russia we must pay attention to what they want. Telling ourselves repeatedly that we are in a war of light versus darkness in which there is no middle ground is not a diplomatic strategy. Rana, do you share my frustration with western navelitis? If so, what is your cure?
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?FYI:??I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
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The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND?connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
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On to the “Main Event”:
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I post the URL for each news item I share in my?REDDIT blog post - ?if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.?
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Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments!?-?Patrick
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Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
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Repeated- This is timeless AND priceless?information:
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4/18/22:?Doug Casey: the world is headed for chaos and radical change
URL --- MUST??View?(recurring- as this is most prescient):
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Repeated Post – You have been forewarned of what is coming to the US:?
5/5/22: Shocking New Info ----- Stock Up and Buckle Up ------206,281 views - Breaking news that the MSM will NOT cover! Nuclear-war-related information- Canadian gas prices are about $2-$3 per liter (in the US that would be about $7-$8/gallon- This IS coming to the US and SOON! -IMHO of course.
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Links to impactful geopolitical events- that you should know about:
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Islamic State-Khorasan Province Expands Attacks beyond Afghanistan
?I published ?this on 6/3/22-6:
?Benefits Of Hydrogen Peroxide On Plants And In Your Garden-Hydrogen Peroxide And Plants?
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Yes, H2O2 has many benefits in your garden ranging from a disinfectant for garden tools and pots and work areas, to an anti-fungal and pest control powerhouse spray. Its uses……: MORE here:
This is Gonna be Bad and They Know it! 56,903 views - Jun 25, 2022
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The fabric of society is imploding- worldwide! - "ARM YOURSELF" PROTESTS ARE HAPPENING. RUSSIAJUST DECLARED AMERICAN SITES AS TARGETS 47,218 views-Jun 25, 2022 - and MORE!
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Are YOU ready for the imminent "Night of Rage?"- The FBI has warned it won't "tolerate violence, destruction, interference with government functions, or trespassing on government property." -"Night Of Rage" Flyers Spotted In DC Ahead Of Roe v. Wade Decision Tyler Durden's Photo BY TYLER DURDEN WEDNE
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Hell on Earth IS Coming!-What Is Your Plan To Make It Through The Worst Global Food Crisis In Any Of Our Lifetimes? Tyler Durden's Photo BY TYLER DURDEN WEDNESDAY, JUN 22, 2022 - 07:37 PM -Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog--Are YOU ready?
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This is not a Turndown - This is a Takedown---Austin Fitts --- Do you want to rebuild civilization/te global economy and global initiative designed to make us prevail and not just "survive" - or do you want to be a "slave? Austin Fitts shares the "shadow of things to come"!
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Previous Russian Nuke Code holder assassinated in his home- Unconfirmed allegations say it was the work of unknown person(s)- Video reveals what country/killer "represented"/unconfirmed! - "THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY". RUSSIA HAS BEEN WARNED. ATTACK ALLIES AND GO TO WAR. NUKE CODES OUT.
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Empty Shelves at Walmart & Aldi / Food Shortages UPDATE (Food Shortage 2022) 1K -First hand (pictures) food shortage update from Pittsburgh, PA showing empty shelves and discussing what is going on with the peanut butter recall 2022. Critical information so that you can make important prepper decis
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More breaking news on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
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Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - -?Patrick
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Go here:
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Stay tuned for the next issue!
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Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
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Thank you for following my MAG Commentary!
?Patrick
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Headhunting for an experienced freelance SEO content writer for your business??Here’s my profile:?https://protectmykid.us
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Let’s jump on a call soon!?- Patrick
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In closing – last but not least:
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Glory to Ukraine:
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???? Epic Orchestral Anthem of Ukraine - "Ще не вмерла Укра?ни ? слава, ? воля" [English Translation]
51,811 views
Mar 2, 2022
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4/22/19- 2,869,274 views on YouTube-Official HD Promo Video for Pet Shop Boys' fantastic single 'Go West'. Taken from the Pop Art Best - Parody of Russia-China ideology: Glory to Ukraine!
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Time Out! Time to break from all this killing and war - Take a break and enjoy some beats; 1 hour of Pet Shop Boys Greatest Hits - Full Album 2022 - Best Songs Of Pet Shop Boys --- If music isn't your thing-- Grab some Tequila or some other "diversion" from the grind of everyday reality!
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