The MAG Commentary: 051223
Patrick O'Connell
Check out my LinkedIn Newsletter for info on how my digital content sizzles- to include info on my awesome Market Algo NL that forecasts the S&P500 weekly trends!
The MAG Commentary:?051223
Market Weekly Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries
Patrick OConnell, editor
I?am not an investment advisor.?Any financial information is for educational purposes only – NOT investment advice!
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Patrick
Previous ad I posted – when the podcast was created weekly:
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Note – My last podcast WAS CREATED FOR THE TRADING WEEK ENDING 042123 -
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url for the weekly S&P 500 market forecast:
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Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends, Risk on, or Risk off, for the upcoming trading week ending on 05/05/2023:
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The SPY(SPDR, S&P500 ETF), is Trending?DOWNWARD, Minus 1.04 for the past week ending on 05/12/2023.
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In our opinion – not investment advice – next week will -yet again - continue to be epic!?Be Aware – Be Awesome –
To not miss out on the rapid changes in market trends – subscribe to our YouTube channel!
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For the upcoming trading week, ending on 05/19/2023, our proprietary algo forecasts the following potential trend for each of the following metrics – either Bullish or Bearish:
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VIX index:?Bullish!
VVIX index:?Bearish!
SPY index:?Bearish!?
West Texas Intermediate – Crude Oil:?Bearish!
QQQ:?Bullish!
Copper:?Bearish!
And of course, the VIX – SPY Correlation Variance” – Surprise – Surprise – Bearish --- bye-bye – Sucker Rally!
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So what? So, our conclusion for the week ahead is that – Surprise-Surprise - our algo indicates that the Bulls at ?least for the week ahead – are in retreat- The Bears – yet again – “Rule The Roost”!
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Our SPY-VIX Correlation Variation metric -?– confirms this of course.
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In our opinion massive global bank runs are still ongoing- notwithstanding the massive printing of fiat money to “stem the run on banks”.
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Some analysts say that QE, or Qualitative Easing is back again – at least for the banks!
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This is – of course - NOT investment advice – but fasten your seat belts- a bumpy ride awaits!
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Swing traders and day traders will make money – the traders that are not nimble will be crushed, in our opinion!
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For the past few months, we have been saying that we are entering a global depression, not so much a recession!
Dan – at iAllegedly – on his YouTube channel -?is sharing that the “D” word may be more likely than a mere recession!
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More analysts and bankers are now forecasting the coming of a depression – NOT a recession!
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What do YOU think?
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We agree with other analysts, that the equity markets are completely disconnected from the reality of the collapsing economies of many countries around the planet!
领英推荐
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When we have a bullish week as we experience – intermittently – during this epic bear market - it demonstrates - that Wall Street is oblivious to the pain being felt by Main Street! Indeed – this disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street is growing – a LOT!
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We continue to think – that when a rally occurs – that it is nothing more than just another sucker’s bull rally in the ongoing bear market!
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As the sucker’s rally plays on – from time to time- on a seemingly random basis (as it is doing for the week ahead) - in our opinion- the ship (just think of The Titanic) – continues to sink – and increasingly so!
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These sucker rallies can last for weeks at a time- during a Bear Market!?When the rug pull comes – as it inevitably WILL - the result will be a dramatic decline in the market indexes – in our opinion of course!
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More and more analysts are forecasting a catastrophic commercial real estate crash!?All we can say is “Wow”!
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We do not think we have seen the bottom.
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Keep in mind, Volatility is still very much with us!
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Indeed, The Bear Market is still very much still with us!
We always like to see at least a 3, or greater week period - in which the market is in a bull trend before we can determine a potential bottom for the market!
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Be careful in trading for the next one to three weeks, – AND MORE!
It’s a jungle out there!
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More details – and –
Our Full Disclosure:
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This analysis is not investment advice.
We are not investment advisors!
Any financial information is for educational purposes only, not investment advice!
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The global hyperinflation, the global supply chain dislocations, and of course… global drought, plus the “wars,” (take your pick: …Ukraine, Russia, China),…all of these negative factors are certainly not helpful for the bulls’ case!
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Please note,?Concerning our “VIX, SPY correlation-variance ” metric,
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IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP,?for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our?VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,… for the upcoming week,…
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This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, only?happens,…currently,…on a very infrequent basis!...
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As Doug Casey said in a recent interview, we are in a chaotic period in global markets!…
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One analyst shared that bear markets may have 7 bull runs during the course of a bear market.
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The most recent sucker rally would possibly be bull run number 4!
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We may have 3 more bull runs to go before the bear market has run its course.
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Reminder:
Daniel?Riley –Mr.TopStep:?https://mrtopstep.com ?provides daily updates ?on the markets:?
His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!!??—Patrick
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Commentary for 05/12/2023:
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I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn!?
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
Published on YouTube:??05/13/2023
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Democracy's greatest strength is founded on cooperation.
Putin does not comprehend the principles of generosity, magnanimity or mercy. Putin's cultural development as a KGB officer for the Soviet Union taught him that all government systems rely on power. The person with the power retains it with the threat of punishment and the reward of wealth. The only requirement to be useful is to be obedient to the leadership.
This system is simple and effective. All challenges to power are ruthlessly crushed as an example to other would be challengers. Fear dominates in authoritarian societies, there is no freedom of thought or speech. Success comes from cruelty and selfishness. The only route to change is revolution or a catastrophe such as famine or war.
Authoritarian systems all eventually collapse because the system lacks the willing cooperation of the majority. Putin rules with strength, all cooperation is coerced. Diplomacy is simply a route to victory not a search for peace. Putin imagines that all his opponents think the way he does, that no one wants peace simply for the purpose of prosperity. He believes that any gift is a bribe or a deception.
Now Putin is losing in Ukraine and slowly losing his hold on power, he cannot imagine why anyone with an advantage over him wouldn't crush him, in fact he expects it. Rest assured he would crush his opponents and destroy them entirely should the situation reverse.
The great challenge for diplomats in the democratic alliance in the coming year, is to convince Putin that the Russian border is our limit of exploitation, that Russia and Russians alone can dictate the future of their nation. That should the war in Ukraine end, the west will not smash his people into oblivion and if he chooses to stay on his own side of the fence he can retain his position (if his people let him) without fear of invasion.
Democracy appears weak to authoritarians but democracy's greatest strength is founded on cooperation, consensus and a belief in doing what is in the best interests of the majority. It takes time to mould that consensus but once shaped democracy proves incredibly hard to overcome.
First of course, there is a war to win. It is only the unity of the democracies combined with the courage of Ukrainian soldiers that will bring victory and ultimately peace to eastern Europe.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
If you support my work go to?robinhorsfall.info ?and consider purchasing one of my books.
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Former SAS Soldier. Leadership in every environment. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Inspiring Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
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Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
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FYI:??I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
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The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND?connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
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On to the “Main Event”:
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I post the URL for each news item I share in my?REDDIT blog post -?if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.?
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Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments!?-?Patrick
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Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
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New stuff:
If you wonder how the United States of America is to be destroyed – UTTERLY DESTROYED – you need to watch this one hour YouTube video!
You can view all the other videos I place into my Reddit Community- at your leisure – BUT – Let’s just say – that if you are unaware of the enormity of the Evil that is within and without (the US) - and how horrendous (and thorough) ?the destruction of America will be - you will “reap the whirlwind”?- as they say!
Here ’ya go:
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Redacted- We are now being invaded- It IS coming to YOUR neighborhood- REAL SOON! R U Ready for the SHTF in your front and back yard- and inside ur home? Get Ready 4 it or Get Lost-“This is an invasion of America” - Michael Yon at the U.S. border | Redacted
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“Read it (aka “view it) and weep”!
IMHO – The WH fiddles – while America burns- just my 2 cent’s worth of course- but what do I know?
Patrick
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More breaking news is posted on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
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Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - -?Patrick
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Go here:
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Stay tuned for the next issue!
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Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
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Thank you for following my MAG Commentary!
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Patrick
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We also publish a weekly newsletter on Substack:?The Market Algo Newsletter – It forecasts the direction of the S&P 500 market?- index for the upcoming week – and global geopolitical commentaries -
////////////////////////////
Unlock the power of Email marketing with these quick videos-Expert Guidance Inside:
Free - Watch this NOW:???https://youtu.be/4la0_cSixIw
(NOT an affiliate marketing link!)
////
?
Check out my 2 YT channels(my pen name is “Luna Maypole”)-to see how I use ChatGPT for YouTube:
?
Don’t miss Luna Maypole’s
“Pearls of Wisdom-Words to Live By”!
Global Thought Leaders’ Advice
For Today’s World Leaders:
If you want to follow NM-Kitty, as she travels around the planet- follow her at the link below.?She is always looking for new adventures in more places to share the Meow of it all!
Don’t miss Luna Maypole’s latest Chapter of “NM-Kitty’s Meow Adventures”:
?
Find “NM-Kitty” on page 1 of “Google Search”!
////////
Check out my LinkedIn Newsletter for info on how my digital content sizzles- to include info on my awesome Market Algo NL that forecasts the S&P500 weekly trends!
1 年Thank you for your comments/reactions- Mawsumi and Chester!
Next Trend Realty LLC./wwwHar.com/Chester-Swanson/agent_cbswan
1 年Well Said.