The MAG Commentary: 042823
Patrick O'Connell
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The MAG Commentary:?042823
Market Weekly Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries
Patrick OConnell, editor
I?am not an investment advisor.?Any financial information is for educational purposes only – NOT investment advice!
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Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends, Risk on, or Risk off, for the upcoming trading week ending on 05/05/2023:
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The SPY(SPDR, S&P500 ETF), is Trending?Upward, PLUS3.73 for the past week ending on 04/28/2023.
In our opinion – not investment advice – next week will -yet again - continue to be epic!?Be Aware – Be Awesome –
To not miss out on the rapid changes in market trends – subscribe to our YouTube channel!
For the upcoming trading week, ending on 05/05/2023, our proprietary algo forecasts the following potential trend for each of the following metrics – either Bullish or Bearish:
VIX index:?Bullish!
VVIX index:?Bullish!
SPY index:?Bullish!?
West Texas Intermediate – Crude Oil:?Bearish!
QQQ:?Bullish!
Copper:?Bearish!
And of course, the VIX – SPY Correlation Variance” – Surprise – Surprise – Bullish- IMHO- The Sucker Rally is full-on!
So what? So, our conclusion for the week ahead is that – Surprise-Surprise - our algo indicates that the Bulls at ?least for the week ahead – are yet again in control.
Our SPY-VIX Correlation Variation metric -?– confirms this of course.
In our opinion massive global bank runs are still ongoing- notwithstanding the massive printing of fiat money to “stem the run on banks”.
Some analysts say that QE, or Qualitative Easing is back again – at least for the banks!
This is – of course - NOT investment advice – but fasten your seat belts- a bumpy ride awaits!
Swing traders and day traders will make money – the traders that are not nimble will be crushed, in our opinion!
For the past few months, we have been saying that we are entering a global depression, not so much a recession!
Dan – at iAllegedly – on his YouTube channel -?is sharing that the “D” word may be more likely than a mere recession!
More analysts and bankers are now forecasting the coming of a depression – NOT a recession!
What do YOU think?
We agree with other analysts, that the equity markets are completely disconnected from the reality of the collapsing economies of many countries around the planet!
When we have a bullish week as we experience – intermittently – during this epic bear market - it demonstrates - that Wall Street is oblivious to the pain being felt by Main Street! Indeed – this disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street is growing – a LOT!
We continue to think – that when a rally occurs – that it is nothing more than just another sucker’s bull rally in the ongoing bear market!
As the sucker’s rally plays on – from time to time- on a seemingly random basis (as it is doing for the week ahead) - in our opinion- the ship (just think of The Titanic) – continues to sink – and increasingly so!
These sucker rallies can last for weeks at a time- during a Bear Market!?When the rug pull comes – as it inevitably WILL - the result will be a dramatic decline in the market indexes – in our opinion of course!
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More and more analysts are forecasting a catastrophic commercial real estate crash!?All we can say is “Wow”!
We do not think we have seen the bottom.
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Keep in mind, Volatility is still very much with us!
Indeed, The Bear Market is still very much still with us!
We always like to see at least a 3, or greater week period - in which the market is in a bull trend before we can determine a potential bottom for the market!
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Be careful in trading for the next one to three weeks, – AND MORE!
It’s a jungle out there!
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More details – and –
Our Full Disclosure:
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This analysis is not investment advice.
We are not investment advisors!
Any financial information is for educational purposes only, not investment advice!
The global hyperinflation, the global supply chain dislocations, and of course… global drought, plus the “wars,” (take your pick: …Ukraine, Russia, China),…all of these negative factors are certainly not helpful for the bulls’ case!
Please note,?Concerning our “VIX, SPY correlation-variance ” metric,
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IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP,?for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our?VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,… for the upcoming week,…
This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, only?happens,…currently,…on a very infrequent basis!...
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As Doug Casey said in a recent interview, we are in a chaotic period in global markets!…
One analyst shared that bear markets may have 7 bull runs during the course of a bear market.
The most recent sucker rally would possibly be bull run number 4!
We may have 3 more bull runs to go before the bear market has run its course.
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Reminder:
Daniel?Riley –Mr.TopStep:?https://mrtopstep.com ?provides daily updates ?on the markets:?
His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!!??—Patrick
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Commentary for 04/28/2023:
I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn!?
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
Published on YouTube:?042423 -
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Former SAS Soldier. Leadership in every environment. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Inspiring Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
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'When your enemy is making a mistake do not interrupt him.'
Ukraine is making sure that it doesn't interrupt Putin in Bakhmut. The fixation that Russia has on this small town is bewildering. Putin has made it a point of honour to take it, regardless of the cost and the cost to him is enormous.
Losses for one small piece of real estate with no strategic value might have cost Russia as much as 50,000 casualties. No matter how many people a nation has, costs of this size will lead to military bankruptcy.
Russian casualty estimates have fallen by about 30% in the past two weeks and this indicated that their attempts at a Winter offensive have culminated and are fizzling out. They have gained a few buildings and fields for their efforts and losses.
Ukrainian Generals have proved themselves adept at defence. They destroy Russians and then draw back to a new defensive line. When the Russians move into the vacated buildings, the building explode and the whole process starts again. Not since the Korean War has such pointless sacrifice of human lives been so prevalent. This was when the Chinese sent thousands of soldiers into machine guns without weapons. Putin's 'strategy' is (from a military standpoint) nuts. However, let him continue, because while the west ups the supply of ammunition and money, Russia goes in the opposite direction it only has unwilling people to fill the gaps.
The weather is wet, so Ukraine builds its strength, waits and probes for weaknesses. The have crossed the Dnipro at Kherson, they are sending fighting patrols into Zaphorizhia Oblast and they continue to force the Russians to bleed in Donbas.
German Generals knew they had lost WW2 by 1943, but their Fuhrer forced them to continue for two more years. Russian Generals must know that they are running out of time and options, even Wagner boss Prigozhin, speaks of stopping but they cannot get their little Tzar to listen.
They can't interrupt the little man even if they dared.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
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FYI:??I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND?connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
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On to the “Main Event”:
I post the URL for each news item I share in my?REDDIT blog post -?if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.?
Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments!?-?Patrick
Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
New stuff:
The Poplar Report-HERE, HERE, & HERE | Important Report on Food Shortages / Empty Shelves
Full Spectrum Survival-WARNING. US NUKES ARE BEING LOADED UP. CHINA IN POSITION.
Greg Mannarino-MARKETS A LOOK AHEAD: Approaching A "Breaking Point." IMPORTANT UPDATES... Mannarino
i Allegedly-We’ve Hit an Iceberg
Full Spectrum Survival - We are now in WW3- Really? IMHO Tis is Old News! - You are just NOW finding that out? TheShame!-GO GET FOOD AND WATER TODAY. GET
southernprepper1-The US is collapsing...More evidence our government does not care about American citizens.
Canadian Prepper - The Ukrainian Secret Service has been at it again - as in an Alleged attempt to asassinate Putin- Yikes!-BREAKING NEWS: PUTIN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT IN MOSCOW, TROOPS DEPLOYED ATOP NUCLEAR REACTORS
The Poplar report-Polio-Measles-Cholera Viruses- The Potential for theseto be released as a bio-weapon?- A Global Pandemic of Unimaginable Proportions Immminent? Is it a hi-risk?-Marburg Virus Spreading!-Rapid Support Forces in Sudan have seized control of a bio laboratory in the capital of Khartoum.
i Allegedly-These Will Be Half Off
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More breaking news is posted on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - -?Patrick
Go here:
Stay tuned for the next issue!
Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
Thank you for following my MAG Commentary!
Patrick
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Realtor Associate @ Next Trend Realty LLC | HAR REALTOR, IRS Tax Preparer
1 年Well Said.