The MAG Commentary -04/28/2024
Patrick O'Connell
Check out my LinkedIn Newsletter for info on how my digital content sizzles- to include info on my awesome Market Algo NL that forecasts the S&P500 weekly trends!
The MAG Commentary: 04/28/2024
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Market Weekly Forecasts and Geopolitical Commentaries
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Patrick OConnell, editor
I am not an investment advisor
Any financial information is for educational purposes only – NOT investment advice!
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Featured in the Commentary Section:
?Featured:
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Greg Mannarino - MUST***WATCH***-GET OUT OF THIS MARKET IMMEDIATELY? IS YOUR CASH SAFE? WHATS NEXT? Mannarino
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?I also publish this Featured story PLUS lots of my other Reddit stories as well in my Reddit Community!
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??My?proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends, Risk on, or Risk off, for the upcoming trading week ending on 05/03/2024:
The ?SPY(SPDR, S&P500 ETF), has turned slightly Bullish -is this a Bull Trap? -
In my?opinion – not investment advice – The Bulls are in control of next week’s market!
Stay tuned to see if the Fed injects more amounts of $$$ ?into the debt (and equity) markets!
Be aware of this -
It seems?there is a disconnect, however, between the?- sporadic - ?exuberant bullishness of Wall Street and “Main Street”!??
This week may witness the resumption of this exuberance- for how loing- I do not know. - Let me know in your comments what YOU think!
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However - Remember this - ?The US has officially admitted that the US is in a “Peoples’ Depression”!??Duh!
Go figure!
You and I have known this for months!!!
Be Aware – Be Awesome!
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?To not miss out on the rapid changes in market trends – subscribe today – it's free – to my weekly MAG Newsletter!
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NOT Investment advice:
For the upcoming trading week, ending on 04/12/2024, my?proprietary algo forecasts the following potential trend for each of the following metrics – either Bullish or Bearish:
?VIX index: ?has turned slightly Bullish! ?
We’ll see how long this lasts!
VVIX index: Interestingly - this one has urned massively Bullish!
Weird to say the least!
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Remember this - IMHO the markets ARE being manipulated - as in “rigged” -
You DID know that, of course!
What can possibly go wrong?
SPY index: has turned slightly Bullish! ?
Surprise-Surprise!
Swing traders and day traders – Take Note of This!
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West Texas Intermediate – Crude Oil: ?remains Bullish!
This is OLD NEWS:
“... The US Dept of Energy plans to buy 3 million barrels of crude oil – for delivery in March 2024 ?- and IMHO -beyond March….”
Forget the “old news” - The New News is what you need to pay Attention To!
THIS is the NEW NEWS - Pay attention to the new news:
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Well, my dear friends - I have heard that the US will NOT be moving forward with replenishing its Strategic Petroleum Reserves- Because - wait of it -
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They delayed buying ?petroleum while it was relatively cheap.
And NOW- since the price of crude oil is going ever higher- the US Government ALLEGEDLY does not have the $$$ to buy petroleum.
Duh! ???What can possibly go wrong?
With the Strategic Oil Reserve at 43% of capacity- WHY does the planet’s self professed hegemonic nation think ?it can wage a world war on multiple fronts? ?
It won’t end well if it thinks it can go all out into a hot war with Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and others-
JUST my opinion - But what do I know?
?I am but a humble servant of the “System”!
Please let me know your thoughts on this in your comments! - I hate to be the only one that notices that there is a disconnect between what the regime in Washington says - ?and what “the facts on the ground” tell me!
What do YOU think??
--- ?Breaking-- One of the podcasters I follow alleged that the US MIGHT buy some petroleum to increase its reserves - BUT as you know- The occupant of the White House is known to be - shall I say- fickle and not consistent ?in following through on stuff. ?Duh!
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QQQ: ?has turned significantly Bullish - at least for now!
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Copper: ?remains slightly Bullish – It continues - yet again - ?to be inching higher week-over-week!
And of course, the VIX – SPY Correlation Variance” – has now turned slightly Bullish for?the trading week ahead!?
You have been warned –
Be VERY careful in placing your bullish bets in the upcoming trading week!
Meaning what? ?IMHO It means you should continue to be VERY cautious in entering any long term bullish position for this week- at least!
We shall see how the upcoming trading week plays out.
NOT investment advice – as I am not an investment advisor!??
Trade at your own risk. ?
Do your own due diligence!
·????* ?Welcome to yet another week in which the Bulls?rule!
·??Please refer to my?“Warning-Warning – Warning” ??information below for more details!
Conservative traders & “Investors” – Please take note of our “Warning – Warning – Warning” information below!
So what? ?
So for the next week – the Bulls rule – once again!.
?For how long the markets will remain ullish is anyone’s guess – Watch the Fed - Watch the Debt market in Treasuries?- AND the equity markets - ?
THE?Debt Market - primarily - will be the canary in the coal mine – so to speak – as concerns the direction of the equity markets -?IMHO of course – NOT investment advice!
The Takeaway:
Our SPY-VIX Correlation Variation metric - ?– confirms ?- at least from a purely technical point of view (notwithstanding “Fed manipulation” monkey business) – that this coming week’s trend – at least according to this metric - ?is now slightly Bullish!
In my?opinion bank runs are still ongoing- notwithstanding the Fed’s massive printing of fiat money to “stem the run on banks”.
This is – of course - NOT investment advice – but fasten your seat belts - a bumpy ride awaits!
Swing traders and day traders will make money – the traders that are not nimble will be crushed, in my opinion!
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For the past few months, we have been saying that we are entering a global depression, not so much a recession!
PLEASE let me know your thoughts on this ?- Patrick
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?Keep in mind, Volatility is still very much with us!
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Indeed, IMHO - The Bear Market is still very much still with us, as well – BUT ?- when they occur - bullish movements can last form weeks to months in the “typical” Bear market!
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Maintain “situational awareness” in the markets you trade!
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Please note:
Concerning our
“VIX - ?SPY correlation-variance?” metric: ?
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IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP, ?for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our ?VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,for the upcoming week,…
This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, currently typically happens ?- when the Fed is inclined?to support the market in this “selection year” - on a more or less frequent basis!?
Be VERY sensitive to when the rug pull comes! ?
If you follow Greg Mannarino’s podcasts- he will give you a sense of when to potentially ?get out of the market.
Currently he is long the markets AND – he is buying the dips!
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·????* ?Warning – Warning – Warning:
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Dateline: 12/15/2023 - Since the Fed has implied they will not cut rates further, the public has initially responded with a mindless rush into equities - AND – as Greg Mannarino points out for the week of 12/18/2023 – this rush into equities may be the harbinger of UNIMAGINABLE bullish sentiment for ALL assets – equities- commodities – gold- BTC – you name it! ?
It will be “Argentina” writ large when the rug pull comes for the US economy.
In mid-December 2023 - Argentina devalued its currency by 54%. ?
They say they may dollarize their currency as well! ?
What can possibly go wrong?
How would YOU feel – if you woke up one day and found your fiat currency devalued by 50% or more overnight?
It can’t possibly end well for the working classes. ?
Some say there is no longer a middle class in Argentina. ?
Can that scenario come to the US someday as well?
You have been warned!
?Dateline - 04/20/2024 - This past week one of my favorie podcasters alleged that Argentine withdrew its application to be a BRICS member nation. ?Also ALLEGEDLY - the CIA is now in Argentina working with the Arentine government to do “stuff” - You can guess what the “stuff” might be! ?Anyway- long story short- Argentine allegeldy wants to play with the big dogs in Ukraine - by contributing some kind of military support to the Ukrainian regime. ?IMHO - that won’t end well. But nobody listens to me ?- so what do I know?
Your thoughts are welcome - as always!
?NOTE:
?IMHO – it bears repeating – yet again –
?Regardelss of whether we are in a week-over-week Bullish OR Bearish trend - ?– Moving forward –
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ANY periodic bullish trend can –
and possibly WILL last for weeks and months- maybe even throughout 2024!
Time will tell - if any future protracted Bull run will extend into 2025. ?
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For now – ?The Bulls are in CONTROL!
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Be sure to follow Greg Mannarino – He will provide a warning as to when the epic rug pull by the Fed might ?be imminent! ?It may even be biblical – not just “epic”.
NOT investment advice, of course! I am not an investment advisor!
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But wait - there's more!
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Check out my ?Market Algo Newsleter-
I have more info on all things “ Market Algo” at the following link -
I publish this newsletter weekly - and did I say it is free? -
The?Market Algo Newsletter?– It forecasts the direction of the S&P 500 market ?- index for the upcoming week – and more! - ?
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Reminder:?
Daniel?Riley –Mr.TopStep: ?https://mrtopstep.com??provides daily updates ?on the markets:?
His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!!??—Patrick
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Commentary for 04/28/2024:
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I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn! ?
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
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Published on LinkedIn: ????02/29/2024
This article was shared by Robin Horsfall:
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Overcoming adversity.
Leadership in every environment.
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Tipping Point?
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." (W S Churchill) Today might be the tipping point in the Russo/Ukraine war.
The US House of representatives voted for the 61 billion dollar aid package to Ukraine, the deal must now be signed off by the Senate and the President. This decision is akin to Churchill's reaction when Adolf Hitler declared war on the USA in 1941.
Churchill wrote in his memoirs that only then could he be completely sure the allies would win.
Now at last, we can we be certain Ukraine will win. With the USA, NATO, the UK, Europe and most of the UN supporting them Ukraine cannot lose.
Russia
cannot sell or transport a large portion of its oil and gas, cannot refine its crude, cannot function on the world banking system, has a currency that is coinsidered worthless, climbing inflation and an army that is running out of men and materiel.
Russia hoped to wear Ukraine down and coerced proxies in various governments across the world to enable that strategy.
The most important of all being the USA. Russia has failed because the moderate Republicans in Congress finally overwhelmed the extremists they refer to privately as 'The Crazies'.
This important stance was combined with the sound and solid bipartisan approach of Democrats. This is the way democracies are supposed to function. United in the aim to do what is decent and best for the free world, not what is best for their wallets.
Perhaps one advantage that has come from the USA procrastinating is that it has forced the rest of the world (especially the UK) to realise how inadequate their armed forces are? Our dependency on the USA for defence must be measured by our ability to defend ourselves standing alone as we did in the South Atlantic in 1982.
91 Billion from the USA 100 Billion over five years from NATO Billions more from the UK, Europe, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Canada, Brazil and many others. F16s More Patriot air defences from Europe, More Drones, ammunition, food, fuel and medical care.
More victories for Ukraine.
The one thing Ukraine has not yet asked us for is our men.
We might have to reconsider our position in that regard in the coming months if we are to ensure that Putin comes to the negotiation table and agrees to take his armies home.
Ultimately from all this, there is an old lesson for our leaders to learn again.
To prevent a war one must always be prepared for one! Slava Ukraini! Who Dares Shares! Robin Horsfall
If you support my work go to?robinhorsfall.info?and consider purchasing one of my books.
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Former SAS Soldier. Leadership in every environment. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Inspiring Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
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Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
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FYI: ??I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
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The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND ?connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
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On to the “Main Event”:
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I post the URL for each news item I share in my ?REDDIT blog post - ?if you want to do a deep dive into the source material. ?
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Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments! ?- ?Patrick
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Here are the major “real-time” news items I commented on for this past week:
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Featured:
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?Greg Mannarino - MUST***WATCH***-GET OUT OF THIS MARKET IMMEDIATELY? IS YOUR CASH SAFE? WHATS NEXT? Mannarino
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New stuff :
Snyder Rpts - Is Wells Fargo next? More infor on WF and other things in this video-Major Banks Will Collapse Soon!!!
Patrick Humphrey- This new law will usher in chaos - Police and Law Enforcement will NO LONGER BE ABLE TO ASSIT YOU - 24/7- Welcome to the new dawn of an environment where you are NOW ON YOUR OWN! - Mad Max is here, folks!!!-WARNING!! ?? New LAW PASSED - Law Enforcement issues WARNING to CITIZENS
Full Spectrum Survival- The 10 year cycle is about to begin in 2024 or 2025- Economists have stated! - Mad Max to begin soon?- US Gov getting ready to declare the Climate Emergency- WITH Dictatorial Powers!- WARNING- TS CRASHING NOW - US GOVERNMENT WARNING!!!Prepare for a VERY Perilous Environment!
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Military Summary - The Bloom | Kyiv Sends Reinforcements To Sumy | Soloviove Has Fallen. Military Summary For 2024.4.25
Military Summary- Great updates on the Ukraine war - The Bloom | Berdychi, Semenivka Have Fallen. Krasnohorivka Was Cut In Two.Military Summary 2024.4.26
The Macs - Biden want to tax ALL of your unrealized capital gains! PLUS he wants 44% capital gains tax on your property-- you name it! - Whats not to like? Bidenomics writ large, folks!-JUST ANNOUNCED: WHITEHOUSE DECLARES EMERGENCY! You Will NEVER Believe What ELSE Coming NEXT WK!
Patrick Humphrey - Is this banks collapse the harbinger of a nationwide bank holiday? You have been warned! - EMERGENCY ALERT!! ?? Feds just SHUT DOWN amp; SEIZED BANK - COLLAPSE HAS BEGUN - PREPARE NOW!! - Your money could be inaccessible for weeks! - Get ready fornbsp;The Event!!!
Poplar Rpt - The US wants to seize ALL Russian assets in the US- AND- Wants Europe to do the same - That is: Seize all Russian assets in Europe! This is ABSOLUTE INSANTIY -IMHO! - What can go wrong?-What THEY Did Is INCREDIBLY Stupid - Well All PAY For THIS!
Daniel Davis - Must Watch - Col Doug Macgregor What Ukraine Aid Signals to the World
Greg Mannarino- It has happened!- IMHO - The Fed is now pumping liquidity into the debt market- buying eqyties, too? ALL MANIPULATED- We are being set up, folks!!! - LIVE! AN ECONOMIC NIGHTMARE IS RAPIDLY UNFOLDING... AND THIS IS JUST THE START OF IT. Mannarino
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More breaking news is posted on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
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Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - - ?Patrick
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Go here:
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?OR – Go here:
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Stay tuned for the next issue!
Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
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?Thank you for following my MAG Commentary!
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Patrick
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We also publish a weekly newsletter on Substack: ?The?Market Algo Newsletter?– It forecasts the direction of the S&P 500 market ?- index for the upcoming week – and global geopolitical commentaries -
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?I created our InsightNexus chatbot for Greg Mannarino, using my Chatbase softwarenbsp;-
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For Greg Mannarino’s analysis of stock market risk – go here:?
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Contact me for info about our InsightNexus chatbot - How to integrate it with your CRM and wrap it in your SAAS!?
Samples of my work are on my Patrick OConnell Consultants website:
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I want to thank all of my wonderful subscribers to my market analysis and geopolitical commentary NL – The MAG Commentary:
In the name of Allah -
The Compassionate - The Merciful:
Alhamdulilah – Assalamualaikum –
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May Peace Be Unto You!
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FYI - I use the pen name, Luna Maypole --- ?Patrick?Oconnell:
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Don’t miss Luna Maypole’s latest Chapter of
“NM-Kitty’s Meow Adventures” (written in the style of A.A. Milne – creator of the Winnie the Pooh Adventures):
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Don’t miss Chapter 16:???“NM-Kitty’s Meow Adventures” -?
The Sands of Destiny: NM-Kitty's Quest in Tehran, Iran - CH 16 (NOT chapter 12)
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A Feline Heroine's Journey to Uncover the Ancient Prophecy
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My NM-Kitty YouTube Playlist is located here –
check it out today:
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Something to lift your spirit:
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The Fellowship of Dreams??(TFOD)– The Theme Song for TFOD –
– aka “Love’s Gentle Refrain”:
Audio & Music credit:
?Created by the author:
and also:
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Elara’s Song – “Love’s Gentle Refrain:
“Let rusty steel a while be sheathed,
And all those harsh and rugged sounds,
Of bastinadoes, cuts and wounds,
Exchanged to Love’s more gentle style.
Our stern alarums changed to merry greetings,
Our dreadful marches to delightful measures.”
-?- - - Richard ?III -- Shakespeare
Audio & Music credit:
?Created by the author:
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Have you followed Aleph and Omega?– The protagonists in my short story fictional series “The Fellowship of Dreams”?
?Don’t miss the latest chapter (written in the style of #Tom Clancy): ??
The latest chapter –
Located at ??Lampshade of Illumination - is here:
Aleph and Omega go undercover in Cairo to infiltrate the Serpent Syndicate, a criminal organization planning to exploit the city’snbsp;secrets-Sands of Betrayal in the City of Shadows - Partnbsp;23-Aleph and Omega Go to Cairo,nbsp;Egypt
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But wait - there’s more: ?Don’t Miss:
Don’t miss the latest chapter of my novel – that I have serialized ?in Lampshade of Illumination (a Medium Publication), “Abalon Rising – The Chronicles of Abalon and Abrixis – The Quest for Balance”?-
My latest installment:
Seeking the Sage’snbsp;Wisdom
Part 1-Ch 10-Abalon Rising: The Chronicles of Abalon and Abrixis?—?Quest fornbsp;Balance
Elara Seeks the Help of the Wizard of All-Knowing
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And Last - But Not Least- Don’t miss the latest installment of my fantasy fiction series:
“The Soto Voce Resitance Movement - A Clear and Present Danger to the Status Quo?”
My latest installment:
?PAW PRINTS OF DISSENT:?A NON-VIOLENT RESISTANCE MOVEMENT THAT USES CLEVER TACTICS TO FIGHT OPPRESSION IN THE SHADOWS?- Part 3 -Act 1-
The Soto Voce Movement - A Clear and Present Danger?-Whispers in the Concrete Jungle
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Get free blogging tips & ideas -NOW: ?
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ALSO – You may find some ideas for a blog post in any of the PDF files at the following URL – An archive of copies of a ‘zine that my wife, Joan and I published from 1977-1984. ?Unfortunately, upon her death in August 1984, I had to discontinue publication of this quarterly publication:
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Detailed info on the ‘zine and my late wife- is here – though it does not mention that she was a published author during her life journey on our beloved planet:
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