The MAG Commentary: 042123
Patrick O'Connell
Check out my LinkedIn Newsletter for info on how my digital content sizzles- to include info on my awesome Market Algo NL that forecasts the S&P500 weekly trends!
The MAG Commentary:?042123
Market Weekly Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries
Patrick OConnell, editor
I?am not an investment advisor.?Any financial information is for educational purposes only – NOT investment advice!
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Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends, Risk on, or Risk off, for the upcoming trading week ending on 04/21/2023:
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The SPY(SPDR, S&P500 ETF), is Trending?Downward, MINUS 0.26 for the past week ending on 04/21/2023.
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In our opinion – not investment advice – next week will -yet again - continue to be epic!?Be Aware – Be Awesome –
To not miss out on the rapid changes in market trends – subscribe to our YouTube channel!
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For the upcoming trading week, ending on 04/28/2023, our proprietary algo forecasts the following potential trend for each of the following metrics – either Bullish or Bearish:
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VIX index:?Bullish (but only in a very small way)!
VVIX index:?EXTREMELY Bearish – You have been warned!
SPY index:?Bearish!?
West Texas Intermediate – Crude Oil:?Bearish!
QQQ:?Bearish!
Copper:?Bearish!
And of course, the VIX – SPY Correlation Variance” – Surprise – Surprise – Bearish – of course!
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So what? So, our conclusion for the week ahead is that – Surprise-Surprise - our algo indicates that the Bears– at least for the week ahead – are yet again in control.
Our SPY-VIX Correlation Variation metric -?– confirms this of course.
In our opinion massive global bank runs are still ongoing- notwithstanding the massive printing of fiat money to “stem the run on banks”.
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Some analysts say that QE, or Qualitative Easing is back again!
This is – of course - NOT investment advice – but fasten your seat belts- a bumpy ride awaits!
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Swing traders and day traders will make money – the traders that are not nimble will be crushed, in our opinion!
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For the past few months, we have been saying that we are entering a global depression, not so much a recession!
Dan – at iAllegedly – on his YouTube channel -?is sharing that the “D” word may be more likely than a mere recession!
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More analysts and bankers are now forecasting the coming of a depression – NOT a recession!
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What do YOU think?
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We agree with other analysts, that the equity markets are completely disconnected from the reality of the collapsing economies of many countries around the planet!
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When we have a bullish week as we experience – intermittently – during this epic bear market - it demonstrates - that Wall Street is oblivious to the pain being felt by Main Street! Indeed – this disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street is growing – a LOT!
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We continue to think – that when a rally occurs – that it is nothing more than just another sucker’s bull rally in the ongoing bear market!
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As the sucker’s rally plays on – from time to time- on a seemingly random basis (as it is doing for the week ahead) - in our opinion- the ship (just think of The Titanic) – continues to sink – and increasingly so!
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These sucker rallies can last for weeks at a time- during a Bear Market!?When the rug pull comes – as it inevitably WILL - the result will be a dramatic decline in the market indexes – in our opinion of course!
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More and more analysts are forecasting a catastrophic commercial real estate crash!?All we can say is “Wow”!
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We do not think we have seen the bottom.
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Keep in mind, Volatility is still very much with us!
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Indeed, The Bear Market is still very much still with us!
We always like to see at least a 3, or greater week period - in which the market is in a bull trend before we can determine a potential bottom for the market!
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Be careful in trading for the next one to three weeks, – AND MORE!
It’s a jungle out there!
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More details – and –
Our Full Disclosure:
This analysis is not investment advice.
We are not investment advisors!
Any financial information is for educational purposes only, not investment advice!
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The global hyperinflation, the global supply chain dislocations, and of course… global drought, plus the “wars,” (take your pick: …Ukraine, Russia, China),…all of these negative factors are certainly not helpful for the bulls’ case!
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Please note,?Concerning our “VIX, SPY correlation-variance ” metric,
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IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP,?for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our?VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,… for the upcoming week,…
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This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, only?happens,…currently,…on a very infrequent basis!...
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As Doug Casey said in a recent interview, we are in a chaotic period in global markets!…
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One analyst shared that bear markets may have 7 bull runs during the course of a bear market.
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The most recent sucker rally would possibly be bull run number 4!
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We may have 3 more bull runs to go before the bear market has run its course.
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Reminder:
Daniel?Riley –Mr.TopStep:?https://mrtopstep.com ?provides daily updates ?on the markets:?
His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!!??—Patrick
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Commentary for 04/21/2023:
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I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn!?
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
Published on YouTube – 04/21/2023:
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Robin Horsfall - The Spring Offensive has Begun - Can Ukraine Surprise with Bold and Decisive Gains?
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Go to this URL for the full interview – a MUST –
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
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Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
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FYI:??I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
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The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND?connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
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On to the “Main Event”:
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I post the URL for each news item I share in my?REDDIT blog post -?if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.?
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Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments!?-?Patrick
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Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
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New stuff:
Patrick Humphrey-URGENT EMERGENCY - 56 MILLION PEOPLE - GOV. WARNS: “STOCK UP NOW!” | Patrick Humphrey
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Full Spectrum Survival-GETTING SHIPPED OUT. MILITARY CONTRACTOR WARNING. THE END IS CLOSE
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Redacted-Norway has been keeping busy trying to discredit, Pulitzer Prize, winning journalist, Seymour Hersh, by calling his reporting fake news. Also, the Norwegian government is kicking the Russian bear by expelling 15 Russian diplomats and accusing them of spying. All of this comes as the arctic
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Red Pilled TV-Douglas Macgregor: "THIS WILL BE WORSE THAN A THIRD WORLD WAR, PEOPLE HAVE NO IDEA!" in Exclusive Interview Douglas Macgregor is back on the show to talk about the war in Ukraine. Macgregor gives his assessment of where things stand on the ground. They talk about the astounding casualt
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Redacted-Breaking- Red Alert-NATO is looking for a way out of Ukraine according to recent reports. These claims come on the heals of mysteriously time document leaks showing the war in Ukraine is unwinnable for NATO unless it wants to launch WW3. The news also follows recent independent reports show
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WION- World at War | Russia to pump in 400,000 more soldiers to fight the Ukraine war
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Gregory Mannarino-LIVE! The NEXT PHASE... Expect EXTREME Currency Devaluation As Rates Continue To Rise. Mannarino
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Meet Kevin-Want to buy a house?- Got good credit?- You WILL pay MUCH more for a home!What's not to like?- THIS will be epic- and NOT in a good way!-WTF: Biden is FORCING Affirmative Action on HOUSES for SALE!- It doesn't get any better than this! - Yikes!
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Stephen Garden-AOC wants the United States to spend $90 Trillion with a T on her Green New Deal climate change bill. Zelensky says he needs American f 16 jets immediately to protect Ukraine from Russia. An IRS whistleblower says he has proof Biden interfered in an IRS investigation of Hunter Biden.
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jeremiah babe-SOCIETY IS COLLAPSING WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PEOPLE GET HUNGRY? - COLLAPSE OF THE AMERICAN EMPIRE
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More breaking news is posted on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
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Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - -?Patrick
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Go here:
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Stay tuned for the next issue!
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Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
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Patrick
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We also publish a weekly newsletter on Substack:?The Market Algo Newsletter – It forecasts the direction of the S&P 500 market?- index for the upcoming week – and global geopolitical commentaries -
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Realtor Associate @ Next Trend Realty LLC | HAR REALTOR, IRS Tax Preparer
1 年Thanks for sharing.