The MAG Commentary: 033123
Patrick O'Connell
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The MAG Commentary:?033123
Market Weekly Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries
Patrick OConnell, editor
I?am not an investment advisor.?Any financial information is for educational purposes only – NOT investment advice!
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Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends, Risk on, or Risk off, for the upcoming trading week ending on 03/24/2023:
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The SPY(SPDR, S&P500 ETF), is Trending?Upward, PLUS 13.64 for the past week ending on 03/31/2023.
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In our opinion – not investment advice – next week will continue to be epic!?Be Aware – Be Awesome –
To not miss out on the rapid changes in market trends – subscribe to our YouTube channel!
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For the upcoming trading week, ending on 04/07/2023, our proprietary algo forecasts the following potential trend for each of the following metrics – either Bullish or Bearish:
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VIX index:?Bullish,
VVIX index:?Bullish,
SPY index:?Bullish – but likely not sustainable – over the long-term!
West Texas Intermediate – Crude Oil:?Bullish!
QQQ:?Bullish,
Copper:?Bullish,
And of course, the VIX – SPY Correlation Variance” – Bullish – The Sucker Rally Continues!
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So what? So, our conclusion for the week ahead is that – Surprise-Surprise - our algo indicates that the Bulls – at least for the week ahead – are in control.
Our SPY-VIX Correlation Variation metric -?– confirms this of course.
In our opinion massive global bank runs are still ongoing- notwithstanding the massive printing of fiat money to “stem the run on banks”.
This is – of course - NOT investment advice – but fasten your seat belts- a bumpy ride awaits!
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Swing traders and day traders will make money – the traders that are not nimble will be crushed, in our opinion!
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For the past few months, we have been saying that we are entering a global depression, not so much a recession! Dan – at iAllegedly – on his YouTube channel -?is sharing that the “D” word may be more likely than a mere recession!
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What do YOU think?
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We agree with other analysts, that the equity markets are completely disconnected from the reality of the collapsing economies of many countries around the planet!
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When we have a bullish week as we experience – intermittently – during this epic bear market - it demonstrates - that Wall Street is oblivious to the pain being felt by Main Street! Indeed – this disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street is growing – a LOT!
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We continue to think – that when a rally occurs – that it is nothing more than just another sucker’s bull rally in the ongoing bear market!
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As the sucker’s rally plays on – in our opinion- the ship (just think of The Titanic) – continues to sink – and increasingly so!
These sucker rallies can last for weeks at a time- during a Bear Market!?When the rug pull comes – as it inevitable WILL - the result will be a dramatic decline in the market indexes – in our opinion of course!
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We do not think we have seen the bottom.
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Keep in mind, Volatility is still very much with us!
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Indeed, The Bear Market is still very much still with us!
We always like to see at least a 3, or greater week period - in which the market is in a bull trend before we can determine a potential bottom for the market!
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Be careful in trading for the next one to three weeks, – AND MORE!
It’s a jungle out there!
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More details – and –
Our Full Disclosure:
This analysis is not investment advice.
We are not investment advisors!
Any financial information is for educational purposes only, not investment advice!
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The global hyperinflation, the global supply chain dislocations, and of course… global drought, plus the “wars,” (take your pick: …Ukraine, Russia, China),…all of these negative factors are certainly not helpful for the bulls’ case!
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Please note,?Concerning our “VIX, SPY correlation-variance ” metric,
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IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP,?for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our?VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,… for the upcoming week,…
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This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, only?happens,…currently,…on a very infrequent basis!...
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As Doug Casey said in a recent interview, we are in a chaotic period in global markets!…
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One analyst shared that bear markets may have 7 bull runs during the course of a bear market.
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The most recent sucker rally would possibly be bull run number 4!
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We may have 3 more bull runs to go before the bear market has run its course.
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Reminder:
Daniel?Riley –Mr.TopStep:?https://mrtopstep.com ?provides daily updates ?on the markets:?
His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!!??—Patrick
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Commentary for 03/31/2023:
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I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn!?
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
Published on LinkedIn: ?03/31/2023
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
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Zero Tolerance?
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conducts a Q&A, saying the UK needs to give anti-social behaviour the "urgency" it needs. He sets out a "zero tolerance policy", which?gives police "the tools and powers" to crack down on anti-social behaviour, bans nitrous oxide and the use of immediate justice. (Daily Motion)
These two words 'Zero Tolerance' sound very attractive, they reassure us that our leaders are take our concerns seriously. Sucked in by this comforting statement we vote for them. Zero tolerance is an opening gambit for anyone who wants to lead an authoritarian regime.
Zero tolerance of anti social behaviour sounds like an excellent idea for families who have their neighbourhoods menaced by feral teenagers and drug dealers. People who cannot walk home late at night without feeling threatened. Zero tolerance sounds great to them, it also sounds great to politicians but the ramifications of such a policy in any situation relies on the intelligence and discretion of those who have to enforce it.
The term 'Anti-social behaviour' is subjective and relies of the training of any police officer dealing with the public. Is it anti-social to argue in the street, argue with a police officer, glare at a police officer, refuse to move? Who gets to decide? With 'Zero Tolerance' there is no decision to be made. We all get arrested.
Public order offences are also subject to the same arbitrary rules. Is offending someone a breach of some vaguely worded law or bylaw? A man in Leeds was recently arrested and convicted for publicly stating his opinion about gender. Was this zero tolerance?
Zero tolerance for speeding, chastising kids, using profanities, making tasteless jokes are all something we should think very carefully about before we think it is a good idea.
Tolerance and discretion are required when dealing with human beings. We are all subject to errors of judgement and behaviour. When 'Zero Tolerance' is recommended in dealing with the public the government and the voter must consider very carefully how such ideas can be twisted and used to intimidate law abiding people.
Zero tolerance is dangerous ground. We must all be very wary of anyone who promotes it.
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
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Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
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FYI:??I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
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The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND?connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
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On to the “Main Event”:
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I post the URL for each news item I share in my?REDDIT blog post -?if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.?
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Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments!?-?Patrick
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Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
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New stuff:
KEVIN- Fed Reserve will NOT avoid a hard landing- Yikes! - this is really Bad.
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i Allegedly-We are seeing that Southern California real estate is at its lowest level in 35 years. The man who called the Lehman Brothers debacle is at it again. He says there are 21 warning signs for the stock market and a crash is coming. #StocksCrash #LehmanBrothers #RealEstateCrash #iallegedly #
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Steph Gardner-Former president Donald Trump has been indicted by a new york grand jury and will be arrested in the coming days. Support for Ukraine is waning in America so Ukraine is now turning to china for assistance. An American journalist has been arrested in Russia for being a spy but the Wal
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Greg Mannarino-Trump Indicted... L@@K HERE! Don't L@@K Over There! Another GRAND DECEPTION. Mannarino
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Red Pilled TV -Douglas Macgregor: "Russia IS INVADING, THIS IS IT" in Exclusive Interview Douglas Macgregor is back on the show to talk about the war in Ukraine. Macgregor gives his assessment of where things stand on the ground. They talk about the astounding casualty numbers and the horrifying nat
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Full Spectrum Survival- HERE IS YOUR PROOF. I HAVE WARNED YOU FOR MONTHS. A "Reckoning like none you have seen before" - is imminent!
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Patrick Humphrey - US President declares: "Things will get a LOT worse"- Yikes! The storm cometh- a BIG storm! - Biden issues URGENT EMERGENCY MESSAGE - PREPARE NOW for SHTF! | Patrick Humphrey--- Colapse of US Dollar collapse - imminent? Get ready for the CBDC!- Your life will be turned upside down
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Stephen Gardner:Former CIA Ray McGovern sits down with Stephen Gardner to talk about the Russia Ukraine War. Why Putin is gearing up for a long war. Why Biden and Scholz are in trouble for sabotaging the Nord Stream pipeline and why they are covering it up with silly stories. Plus Ray McGovern revea
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Greg Mannarino - LIVE! CREDIT FREEZE. We Are In A FULL-ON LIQUIDITY CRISIS RIGHT NOW! Mannarino
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Patrick Himphrey- Multiple Attecks ongoong in US- Supply Chain affected- US Military now being deployed within the US- Sabotage? - MILITARY DEPLOYED - FEDERAL EMERGENCY DECLARED - MILLIONS OF PEOPLE AT RISK | Patrick Humphrey
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More breaking news is posted on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
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Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - -?Patrick
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Stay tuned for the next issue!
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Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
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Patrick
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1 年Well Said.