The MAG Commentary: 030323
Patrick O'Connell
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The MAG Commentary:?030323
Market Weekly Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries
Patrick OConnell, editor
I?am not an investment advisor.?Any financial information is for educational purposes only – NOT investment advice!
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Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends, Risk on, or Risk off, for the upcoming trading week ending on 03/10/2023:
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The SPY(SPDR, S&P500 ETF), is Trending?Downward, MINUS 3.07 for the past week ending on 03/03/2023.
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For the upcoming trading week, ending on 03/10/2023, our proprietary algo forecasts the following potential trend for each of the following metrics – either Bullish or Bearish:
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VIX index:?Bullish,
VVIX index:?Bullish,
SPY index:?Bearish,
West Texas Intermediate – Crude Oil:?Bearish!
QQQ:?Bearish,
Copper:?Bearish,
And of course, the VIX – SPY Correlation Variance”?Bearish!
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So what? So, our conclusion for the week ahead is that – Surprise-Surprise - our algo indicates that the Bears – once again – are in control for the week ahead!
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Swing traders and day traders will make money – the traders that are not nimble will be crushed, in our opinion!
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For the past few months, we have been saying that we are entering a global depression, not so much a recession! Dan – at iAllegedly – on his YouTube channel -?is sharing that the “D” word may be more likely than a mere recession!
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What do YOU think?
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We agree with other analysts, that the equity markets are completely disconnected from the reality of the collapsing economies of many countries around the planet!
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When we have a bullish week as we experience – intermittently – during this epic bear market - it demonstrates - that Wall Street is oblivious to the pain being felt by Main Street! Indeed – this disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street is growing – a LOT!
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We continue to think – that when a rally occurs – that it is nothing more than just another sucker’s bull rally in the ongoing bear market!
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We do not think we have seen the bottom.
Keep in mind, Volatility is still very much with us!
Indeed, The Bear Market is still very much with us!
We always like to see at least a 3, or greater week period in which the market is in a bull trend before we can determine a potential bottom for the market
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Be careful in trading for the next one to three weeks, – AND MORE!
It’s a jungle out there!
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More details – and:
Our Full Disclosure:
This analysis is not investment advice.
We are not investment advisors!
Any financial information is for educational purposes only, not investment advice!
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The global hyperinflation, the global supply chain dislocations
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Please note,?Concerning our “VIX, SPY correlation-variance ” metric,
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IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP,?for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our?VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,… for the upcoming week,…
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This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, only?happens,…currently,…on a very infrequent basis!...
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As Doug Casey said in a recent interview, we are in a chaotic period in global markets!…
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One analyst shared that bear markets may have 7 bull runs during the course of a bear market.
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The most recent sucker rally would possibly be bull run number 4!
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We may have 3 more bull runs to go before the bear market has run its course.
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Reminder:
Daniel?Riley –Mr.TopStep:?https://mrtopstep.com ?provides daily updates ?on the markets:?
His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!!??—Patrick
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Commentary for 03/03/2023:
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I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn!?
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
Published on LinkedIn: ??03/01/2023
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
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We must not grow weary.
The tactical withdrawal of Ukrainian troops
The Russians placed a great deal of importance on this pinprick on the map making it symbolic of Russian progress. When Russian soldiers enter the town it will be projected by Putin as an important victory. In reality, Bakhmut never really had much more than a local symbolic value. However, defending the town did fix a large Russian force in place.
Now, the Ukrainians will move back a short distance to new defensive positions and force the Russians to start all over again. It is very exhausting to be engaged in offensive warfare without respite. The Russians are not rotating their men out of the battle they simply lose and replace them.
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The rains have come and the land is turning to mud. Any chances of a winter offensive have passed. On the battle field this means that Russia must try to create an air war or a long range artillery war.
To fly the Russian air force must neutralise UA air defences otherwise the majority of attack aircraft would never reach their destinations. UA air defences have grown stronger and more mobile. They are layered across the country covering all approaches. Drones are disrupted by electronic weapons that take them off course, 80% of Russian missiles are shot down. If Russia intends to take the battle to the air in fast jets they will be shot down en-masse. If they attempt this it will be the end of the Russian air force permanently and possibly the end of Russia as a fighting force.
Long range missiles and drones aside, Russian artillery has a shorter range than UA artillery. This range is of vital importance as it forces Russian headquarters and stockpiles farther back from the battle areas. The range advantage means that UA guns can strike Russian guns without fear of counter battery fire.
The mud will cause a pause on the front and there will probably be a race on both side to build up enough power to launch a major offensive when dry weather comes. With increasing support from the western democracies Ukraine will win this race. Russia will worry about where the attacks from Ukraine will come and spread its forces. Ukraine will concentrate its forces and choose a direction of attack. I expect that attack to be directed at Crimea but Ukrainian Generals are experts at deception.
The only way Ukraine can lose now is if the democracies (especially the USA) lose their will to continue. This must not happen. The coming months will be a tipping point in this war. We must not grow weary of providing our full support
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
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Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
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FYI:??I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
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The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND?connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
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On to the “Main Event”:
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I post the URL for each news item I share in my?REDDIT blog post -?if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.?
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Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments!?-?Patrick
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Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
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New stuff:
THIS IS IT. THE POINT OF NO RETURN.
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It is a question of when - not IF - Ukraine will capitulate- The end is near-Battle for Bakhmut: Russia closing off last access routes to city ? FRANCE 24 English
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127,080 views Mar 3, 2023 #douglasmacgregor #scottritter #putin Colonel Douglas Macgregor sits down with Stephen Gardner to discuss the fall of Ukraine. Putins next moves against Ukraine. The political corruption festering in Washington DC. The Afghanistan withdrawal. DC is abusing the American p
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LIVE! With The Economy In FREEFALL, Central Banks Pump ONE TRILLION DOLLARS Into The Market.
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US is restarting "Operation Chrome Dome"= Yikes! -RED ALERT!! U.S. NUCLEAR BOMBERS RESTART COLD WAR-ERA MISSIONS IN EUROPE!!s
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Are you ready for mandatory Bird Flu vaccinagtions? – The vaccine is ready for you!- Or is it??Another lockdown in the works? -
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Nashville, YN - Targeted- By who or what? This stuff will kill 'ya! What or who is doing this?- TOXIC CHEMICAL ATTACK - YARDS CONTAMINATED - WATER POISONED- NO Accountability! Without Justice - there is Just Us!
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6,449 views Feb 28, 2023 #inflation #breakingnews #dailynews Dutch intelligence and Norwegian military are issuing reports concerned about Russian sabotage of critical energy infrastructure. Especially after the issues off the Polish coast earlier this year. Genesis Gold Group | https://genesisg
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More breaking news is posted on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
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Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - -?Patrick
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Go here:
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Stay tuned for the next issue!
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Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
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Patrick
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Everyone have a great holiday season and a stellar New Year!
Patrick
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Realtor Associate @ Next Trend Realty LLC | HAR REALTOR, IRS Tax Preparer
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