The MAG Commentary: 021023
Patrick O'Connell
Check out my LinkedIn Newsletter for info on how my digital content sizzles- to include info on my awesome Market Algo NL that forecasts the S&P500 weekly trends!
The MAG Commentary:?021023
Market Weekly Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries
Patrick OConnell, editor
I?am not an investment advisor.?Any financial information is for educational purposes only – NOT investment advice!
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Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends, Risk on, or Risk off, for the upcoming trading week ending on 02/17/2023:
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The SPY(SPDR, S&P500 ETF), is Trending?Downward, MINUS 4.31 ?for the past week ending on 02/10/2023.
For the upcoming trading week, ending on 02/17/2023, our proprietary algo forecasts the following potential trend for each of the following metrics – either Bullish or Bearish:
VIX index:?Bearish,
VVIX index:?Bearish,
SPY index:?Bearish,
West Texas Intermediate – Crude Oil:?Bullish!-looking good!,
QQQ:?Bearish,
Copper:?Bearish,
And of course, the VIX – SPY Correlation Variance”?Bearish!
So what? So, our conclusion for the week ahead is that – Surprise-Surprise - our algo indicates that the Bears – once again – are in control for the week ahead!
Swing traders and day traders will make money – the traders that are not nimble will be crushed, in our opinion!
For the past few months, we have been saying that we are entering a global depression, not so much a recession!
What do YOU think?
We agree with other analysts, that the equity markets are completely disconnected from the reality of the collapsing economies of many countries around the planet!
When we have a bullish week as we experience – intermittently – during this epic bear market - it demonstrates - that Wall Street is oblivious to the pain being felt by Main Street!
We continue to think – that when a rally occurs – that it is nothing more than just another sucker’s bull rally in the ongoing bear market!
We do not think we have seen the bottom.
Keep in mind, Volatility is still very much with us!
Indeed, The Bear Market is still very much with us!
We always like to see at least a 3, or greater week period in which the market is in a bull trend before we can determine a potential bottom for the market
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Be careful in trading for the next one to three weeks, – AND MORE!
It’s a jungle out there!
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More details – and:
Our Full Disclosure:
This analysis is not investment advice.
We are not investment advisors!
Any financial information is for educational purposes only, not investment advice!
The global hyperinflation, the global supply chain dislocations, and of course… global drought, plus the “wars,” (take your pick: …Ukraine, Russia, China),…all of these negative factors are certainly not helpful for the bulls’ case!
Please note,?Concerning our “VIX, SPY correlation-variance ” metric,
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IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP,?for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our?VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,… for the upcoming week,…
This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, only?happens,…currently,…on a very infrequent basis!...
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As Doug Casey said in a recent interview, we are in a chaotic period in global markets!…
One analyst shared that bear markets may have 7 bull runs during the course of a bear market.
The most recent sucker rally would possibly be bull run number 4!
We may have 3 more bull runs to go before the bear market has run its course.
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Reminder:
Daniel?Riley –Mr.TopStep:?https://mrtopstep.com ?provides daily updates ?on the markets:?
His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!!??—Patrick
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Commentary for 02/10/2023:
I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn!?
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Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
Published on LinkedIn: 02/05/2023
Russia has decided to act now.
The promise of advanced heavy tanks and longer range artillery from the west has forced Putin's hand. His Generals clearly believe that the arrival of these weapons will be enough to tip the balance of the war against them.
As a result they are attempting to move their reserves north to Luhansk for what appears to be preparations for an early offensive. Russian troops left Belarus recently after 'exercises' but left a lot of materiel behind. Perhaps they hope to advance on Kharkiv and Kyiv again or perhaps it is a safe storage area.
The weather forecast is cold and dry for the next few weeks which will harden the soil and permit offensive operations. Putin believes that he cannot afford to wait and hopes that a breakthrough now, followed by 'talks' will be enough for him to retain Donbas and Crimea.
Russia does not have enough men or materiel to mount an offensive that will change the war to their advantage. They can surge forward and take some territory at huge expense, but AFU forces will mount fighting withdrawals until Russia runs out of men or ammunition. When the tanks and the guns arrive, Russia will be in a state of exhaustion and will have reduced its capacity to fight. All the empty towns and fields gained will mean nothing as a renewed Ukraine come back better armed, fed and equipped.
The world must prepare to hear about a new Russian assault and a steady but slow Ukrainian withdrawal until June and then the battlefield will belong to Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini!
领英推荐
Who Dares Shares
Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
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FYI:??I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND?connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
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On to the “Main Event”:
I post the URL for each news item I share in my?REDDIT blog post -?if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.?
Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments!?-?Patrick
Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
New stuff:
AIR FORCE ATTACK. SHOOT THEM DOWN. JAPAN ISSUES NEW WARNING. Full Spectrum Survival 350K subscribers
3,636 views Feb 11, 2023 #inflation #breakingnews #dailynews Boots on the ground reports from viewers all over the world including a big warning regarding governments restricting and regulating backyard chickens. Food shortage and empty shelves reports on Walmart, Aldi, and grocery stores. Gen
30% Fatality rate= Are U ready for the "Big One"?==The H1N1 has now crossed over to humans- Worse than the Big "C"- It IS REAL!=- IT'S HAPPENING AGAIN! BIRD FLU OUTBREAK. CROSSING OVER INTO HUMANS. Not "IF"- but "When" this one decimates the whole planet!
How do we become more independent from the "System"? - 10,832 views Feb 10, 2023 #inflation #breakingnews #dailynews Food, Information, Governance, and Safety are the critical ways in which we can become more self sufficient and less reliant on systems and people who wish us harm. Genesis Gold Gr
Forget "Winter is coming" - Get ready for WW3 in 6 months- WAR is here!- BREAKING NEWS ALERT. ARMY WARNING. WAR WITH CHINA IN 24 WEEKS. Full Spectrum Survival 350K subscribers -Are U ready for the "Event" in YOUR neighborhood?
Is "Red Dawn" imminent?- NOT the movie- the real-life "Event"- RED ALERT: US Launches ICBM, RUSSIA Preps Satan Missile, North Korea LARGEST Nuclear Display EVER; Who will push the "button" first?
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More breaking news is posted on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - -?Patrick
Go here:
Stay tuned for the next issue!
Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
Thank you for following my MAG Commentary!
Patrick
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Go here for the URL to sign up today - It IS free:
I publish a FREE ?weekly newsletter on Substack:?The Market Algo Newsletter – It forecasts the direction of the S&P 500 market?- index for the upcoming week -
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Everyone have a great holiday season and a stellar New Year!
Patrick
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Realtor Associate @ Next Trend Realty LLC | HAR REALTOR, IRS Tax Preparer
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