Maersk/Cyber: Coming equipment shortage?

APM Terminals was quick in getting manual operations underway in most places while their systems were incapacitated. Looking at the operational updates over the past few weeks, it is also clear that priority was given to ensuring customers' cargo could be delivered or get loaded onboard. A very natural priority under the circumstances.

But it is also clear that where more detailed information was provided, a range of ports for a while did not accept empty containers. This will have disrupted the careful balance related to repositioning of equipment to for example Asia. Maersk have not published any numbers on this matter, and a quantitative analysis is at this point not feasible. It should also be kept in mind that Maersk vessels also called non-APMT facilities not affected by the attack, hence parts of the flow was maintained. But it has 2 primary ramifications.

In deficit areas such as Asia, either there might be a temporary shortage of equipment in 2-6 weeks time from now due to the reduced level of empty shipments in the past two weeks, or we will see a sudden sharp increase in the prices for leasing of additional containers in the deficit areas - but that is providing additional equipment is actually available as we are entering the peak season.

In surplus areas such as Europe and North America, there will be an amount of additional empty containers in need of being shipped back to Asia. Either additional vessels need to be chartered to handle this, which carries an additional cost. Or we will see a temporary reduction in the available backhaul capacity - potentially leading to another backhaul price spike as seen earlier in the Europe-Asia trade.

As mentioned a precise quantification is not possible given the level of information available, but shippers might need to prepare for above eventualities. It should in this context be noted that the effect might not be contained only to Maersk. To the extent MSC relied on its alliance partner to move empty equipment, this will have an impact. Furthermore, if backhaul capacity is temporarily lowered due to empty container movements, this will impact the supply/demand balance, and hence freight rates, for all carriers and shippers.