- Today’s FOMC was largely a “non-event” - as our live Fedspeak tool shows an initially hawkish statement that removed reference to progress on inflation was later balanced by Chair Powell’s seeing “shelter inflation coming down pretty steadily”.
- Chair Powell was also quite explicit about pausing until? “progress on 12-month inflation” occurs
- President Trump’s attacks on the Fed added spice missing in the conference, and in our view, this will force the Fed to be “extra data-dependent” to avoid seeming political
- In this muddled environment our nowcasts help see surprises 1-3 months ahead, and our AI tools help PMs parse how top traders and CEOs see the impacts of these surprises on the 10Y yield differently than the media
Systematic Global Macro
1 个月This is outstanding, Apurv. You and your firm are turning out some really insightful research and unique perspectives that are a breath of fresh air to the next generation of data-driven macro trading. Thanks for sharing.