Macron/Le Pen face to face

The televised debate between the two candidates for the French presidency will not meaningfully affect the outcome on 24 April.

In May 2017, Mrs Le Pen and Mr Macron also faced-off ahead of the second-round vote. Mrs Le Pen scored poorly with voters then and has since re-named her party ‘Rassemblement national’ and worked to build a presidential image.

This time, while Mr Macron demonstrated his technical skills and experience, Mrs Le Pen tried to display more emotional connection to voters’ concerns, performing better than in 2017. Early opinion polls suggest Mr Macron was more convincing in the final face-off.

Just before the debate, the current president’s lead in the polls widened to around 56%, and the latest figures point to Mr Macron winning the second-round vote on 24 April, without re-gaining his absolute parliamentary majority that was lost in May 2020. The President’s ‘République en Marche’ party currently holds 268 seats in the 577-seat Assemblée, excluding the support of a further 79 seats in two other parliamentary groups, ‘MoDem’ and ‘Agir ensemble’.

Still, even if Mrs Le Pen were to win the vote, to enact her proposals, she would then need to build a parliamentary majority in the parliamentary election scheduled for 12 and 19 June 2022. At the moment her ‘Rassemblement national’ party has only six of the lower house’s 577 seats and none in the Sénat.

Beyond this Sunday’s vote, we will therefore closely watch the parliamentary elections on 12 and 19 June.

Stéphane Monier