Macron secures the re-election
April 25th 2022
Global Economy As indicated by opinion polls, Emmanuel Macron defeated Marine Le Pen by a preliminary 58.5% to 41.5%. In the 2017 election, the result was 66% vs. 34%. The tailwind for Le Pen is obvious, however a sitting president has not been re-elected in France for two decades. President Macron has five years to unite the country. Ms Le Pen quickly accepted the election result which should increase the political stability. Market effects of the election results were minimal.?
New euro inflation numbers during the week?
The focus this week is on Friday’s euro area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which is used to measure consumer price inflation. It is expected to decline slightly whereas the core measure should edge higher. Energy is still the main driver but new headwinds due to the war in Ukraine, rising PPI (Producer Price Index) inflation and PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) price assessments suggest further feed through to core inflation.?
GDP numbers suggest weak start of 2022??
Q1 GDP numbers for the US (Thursday) and the euro area (Friday) are expected to show a weak start of the year compared to Q4 2021. In the US, consumption appears to have held up, but inventories and net-trade have constituted a drag. In the euro area, the service sector probably continued to recover, while retail and industry softened.?
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U-turn expected from Sweden’s central bank?
The Riksbank is expected to make a U-turn, first hike in June. The main event of the week will be the Riksbank meeting on Thursday, where markets are pricing a rate hike. We expect an unchanged policy rate with signals of a high probability of a hike at the June meeting. Read more in the latest SEB SEK Views.