Welcome to the August digest of posts published on Macro Market Notes in 2024
! I do publish summaries of blog posts on LinkedIn
or Twitter
right after I publish one, but this newsletter is another way to keep informed about my publications on Macro Market Notes
or elsewhere.
In August I wrote about Q2 labor productivity and wages, the July jobs report, the July CPI and retail sales reports, jobless claims, preliminary benchmark revisions of payrolls, the July FOMC meeting minutes, Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole remarks and the state of consumption, excess savings and core PCE inflation in July. And as per usual I finish with some final thoughts.
If you have feedback on any of the pieces outlined below, let me know in the comments or message me. Also feel free to reach out if you want to chat about professional opportunities that could be of interest to me.
Over the quarter labor productivity was strong in Q2, but the labor productivity level remains below its trend estimate. Base effects resulted in a slight easing in the year/year growth rate.
The pace of trend labor productivity growth, which was 1.3% year/year in Q2, remains below an average trend labor productivity growth rate of 1.9% year/year in 2019.
The labor share declined over the quarter and fell behind its trend estimate, which is estimated to be -0.8% year/year in Q2 compared to an on average flat trend labor share estimate for 2019.
The Q2 ECI index for wages (excl. incentive pay) of private sector workers went up 4.1% year/year. This is about 1.6 percentage point above the wage growth rate consistent with 2% inflation given the trend growth rates of labor productivity and the labor share.
The Q2 overshoot in ECI wages of private sector workers was driven by above trend year/year labor productivity growth and relatively elevated near-term inflation expectations of firms and households.
Payrolls growth slowed notably, but trends remain solid and above the breakeven pace needed to keep the unemployment rate constant.
The unemployment rate hit 4.3% as the labor force participation rate increased from 62.6% to 62.7%.
The job-finding rate was broadly unchanged over the month at 43% with smoothed trends declining below 50%. The unemployment rate consistent with recent job-separation and job-finding rates is rapidly honing at a level where demand and supply of workers is more balanced. This suggests a negative near-term outlook for the official unemployment rate.
Wage growth remains elevated, with momentum in composition-adjusted average hourly earnings picking up.
Today’s data confirms the Fed’s switch to more emphasis on the employment side of its mandate relative to that for inflation in determining its future policy rate path. But it will also take note of some the temporary factors driving today’s report.
The topline numbers of the July CPI report came pretty much in line with consensus expectations.
However, the start of the highly anticipated downtrend in the most dominant component of CPI, CPI OER, remains elusive
Underlying CPI inflation series are still overshooting the Fed's 2% inflation target over a six-month period, but they have eased nonetheless.
Core goods retail sales (i.e., retail sales excl. gasoline stations) have improved notably on a three-month basis.
Labor force corrected initial claims data suggest that the peak back in July was relatively muted compared to the recent past and since then dropped back in line with what we’ve seen in 2019 and 2022.
In Q2 and beyond labor force-corrected continued claims have been in line with patterns seen last year as well as in 2018. It therefore appears that current unemployment levels are not yet at levels that would overly burden the economy.
The pace of labor market cooling and household spending will likely weigh more on how much the Fed will cut rates in September, and the recent releases on retails sales and jobless claims suggest an economy that is not in a recession and, for now, experiences labor market cooling rather than deterioration.
For the 12 months between April 2023 and March 2024, the BLS estimated in this preliminary benchmark that cumulative payrolls growth had been 818,000 persons less than initially thought.
A naive monthly implementation of this preliminary benchmark revision suggests that relative to the official numbers, smoothed job growth trends slowed notably in H2 2023. Since then, however, trends in implied revised payrolls show a recovery and stabilization in 2024 at around 170,000 instead of a slowing trend since December in the official data.
Relative to the July FOMC post-meeting statement and press conference, the release of the minutes of the July FOMC meeting did not contain any news. It broadly confirmed a shift from an almost singular focus on inflation towards a focus on both inflation and employment.
The minutes and recent inflation data confirmed that the September FOMC meeting will be the start of a rate easing cycle. However, given the tension between still elevated longer term trends in inflation, solid real activity data and cooling labor market trends, for the Fed the main focus of the rate easing cycle will be on dialing back restrictiveness rather than a quick return to neutral.
The Fed has shifted from an almost singular focus on inflation towards managing risks to both the inflation and employment sides of its mandate.
Given recent inflation easing and an increasingly cooler labor market, the Fed will start cutting policy rates starting at the upcoming September FOMC meeting.
In terms of the rate cutting pace, the Fed’s intention is cut rates gradually given still above-target inflation, the importance of preserving stable inflation expectations and the expectation that labor markets are cooling and not deteriorating.
The end point of the forthcoming easing cycle will likely also end up somewhat higher compared to the immediate pre-COVID years given a higher neutral rate.
Personal income growth out of wages and salaries remained broadly stable in July. Household wage income growth remains in line with the pace that’s broadly consistent with 2% PCE inflation over the medium-term.
The stock of excess savings has NOT run out and continues to be a tailwind for consumption. Between June and July, it fell around $33 billion and equaled about $529 billion in July.
In July headline consumption growth accelerated well above its underlying spending growth. Over the coming months headline spending will likely ease towards the pace of underlying consumption growth. But as the latter improved since early 2024 over a longer horizon and remains above its 2022 and H1 2023 paces, this does not signal that a large downshift in consumption is forthcoming in H2.
Core services excl. housing PCE inflation, the Fed’s favorite gauge of underlying inflation, is now showing a more pronounced slowing momentum. The central tendency measures of PCE inflation are similarly slowing and currently suggests underlying PCE inflation at around 2.4%.
The slowing in underlying inflation measures will no doubt give most Fed officials comfort that policy rates can be cut, and the Fed will start to do this at the forthcoming September FOMC meeting. Given solid underlying consumption growth rates the Fed will likely, for now, pursue a gradual rate cutting path in order to both grind down any remaining stickiness in inflation and to give breathing room for a cooling labor market.
Final Thoughts
What a month of August! We started out the month with a growth scare mainly owing to a larger-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate in the July jobs report. The subsequent market turmoil meant that market participants paid a lot of attention to the entirety of the data flow over the month, including those more secondary ones. The data over the remainder of August indicated that real activity in the U.S. has been holding up well. And although labor market cooling is for real there's not much evidence (yet) that the economy is already in or is about to be in a recession.
It really was the inflation data in August that settled the case for the Fed to likely start an easing cycle in September. Even underlying (trimmed mean) PCE inflation rates eased notably and now have settled below the "magic" six-month average 2.5% threshold in July (chart above). The real question obviously is now how fast the Fed will cut rates. I am still of the opinion that inflation normalization will be a lot more bumpy than what most analysts seem to expect. And I also think the Fed remains wary of it and given that real activity is still expanding at a solid pace, the Fed will aim rate cuts to be a dialing back of restrictiveness, as I laid out in a recent interview:
As such I expect to see two or three 25bps rate cuts this year, followed by 25bps rates every FOMC meeting in 2025 until the Fed funds rate is in the 3.25%-3.5% range. This is the range where I think most FOMC members will end up with their neutral rate views given recent developments across a variety of real R* proxies (chart below).
There are two risks to this modal path:
The July jobs report was less affected by temporary factors than what I expected and the September 6th will show a further worsening of labor market conditions. This essentially means the recession has practically arrived and the Fed will shift to an almost singular focus on the labor market, resulting in aggressive rate cuts to reach neutral as soon possible and to go below it if necessary. Markets certainly have priced in this tail risk.
The disinflationary impulse fades later 2024 and we see some re-firming of inflation in the spring of 2025. Is this not out of the ordinary of indeed current real activity is driven by an expansionary labor supply shock. And as such a such a shock works itself through the economy the initial disinflationary impulse will make way for a pickup in inflation as price move back to where they were before the positive labor supply shock. Confronted with this increased inflation volatility the Fed might decide to pause the rate cutting cycle after four moderate cuts. Markets clearly have not priced in this particular risk.
If you enjoyed reading these posts, please share and consider subscribing to Macro Market Notes
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